تحلیل عوامل موثر بر ضریب خودکفایی گندم در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اردکان، یزد، ایران.

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اردکان، یزد، ایران.

3 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اردکان، یزد، ایران.

چکیده

موضوع خودکفایی مواد­غذایی یکی از مباحث مهم و راهبردی در کشورمان است. با مطرح‌شدن الگوی اقتصاد مقاومتی در سال‌های اخیر، اهمیت این امر بیشتر شده است. خودکفایی در تولیدات محصولات کشاورزی و به‌ویژه گندم به‌عنوان اساسی‌ترین محصول مورد نیاز جامعه اهمیت زیادی دارد. هدف مطالعه حاضر، بررسی عوامل موثر بر ضریب خودکفایی گندم ایران با توجه به اقتصاد مقاومتی طی دوره زمانی 96-1368 در ایران، با استفاده از الگوی خود توضیح‌برداری (VAR) است. نتایج حاصل از برآورد الگوی خود توضیح‌برداری نشان می‌دهد، متغیرهای ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی (به‌عنوان شاخص اقتصاد مقاومتی)، ضریب مکانیزاسیون بخش کشاورزی، نرخ تسهیلات بانک کشاورزی و قیمت تضمینی گندم دارای تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر روی ضریب خودکفایی گندم هستند و بین ضریب خودکفایی و ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی رابطه علیّت و مثبت وجود دارد. همچنین، تغییر از طرف متغیر ارزش‌افزوده بر ضریب خودکفایی در طول یک دوره ده ساله اثرات مثبت و کاهنده داشته و در پایان شوک با کمی تأثیر کاهشی در منطقه متبت اثر این شوک تعدیل می‌شود. بنابراین، با توجه به مثبت‌شدن رابطه بین ضریب خودکفایی و ارزش‌افزوده به‌عنوان شاخص اقتصاد مقاومتی، پیشنهاد می‌شود، تسهیلات و اعتبارات مورد نیاز جهت طرح ارتقای ضریب خودکفایی گندم، افزایش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating The Factors Affecting the Self-Sufficiency Coefficient of Iranian Wheat

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ahmad Fatahi ardakani 1
  • zahra ahmadi 2
  • Masoud Fehresti-Sani 3
  • akram neshat 3
1 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Ardakan University, Yazd, Iran.
2 Graduated M.Sc., Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Ardakan, Yazd, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Ardakan University, Yazd, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The issue of food self-sufficiency is one of the most important and strategic issues in our country.
With the introduction of the model of resistance economy in recent years, this has become more important. Self-sufficiency in the production of agricultural products, especially wheat, is very important as the most basic product needed by society. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the self-sufficiency coefficient of Iranian wheat with respect to the resistance economy during the period 1989 -2017 in Iran, using the VAR. The results of estimating the self-explanatory model show that the value-added variables of agricultural sector (as an indicator of resilient economy), mechanization coefficient of agricultural sector, facility rate of agricultural bank and guaranteed price of wheat have a positive and significant effect on wheat self-sufficiency coefficient. There is a causal and positive relationship between the added value of the agricultural sector. Also, the change by the value-added variable has positive and decreasing effects on the self-sufficiency coefficient during a ten-year period, and at the end of the shock, the effect of this shock is adjusted with a slight decreasing effect in the corresponding region. Therefore, considering the positive relationship between self-sufficiency coefficient and value added as an indicator of resilient economy, it is suggested to increase the facilities and credits required to improve the wheat self-sufficiency coefficient.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Facility
  • Mechanization Coefficient
  • Guaranteed Price
  • VAR

مراجع

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 52، شماره 4
دی 1400
صفحه 731-741

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