بررسی آثار قیمت تضمینی و هزینه تولید بر سطح زیر کشت محصولات راهبردی کشاورزی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی،‌ دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

یکی از مباحثی که همواره ذهن سیاست‌گذاران بخش کشاورزی را به خود مشغول کرده، تعیین راهبرد تولیدی کشور و انتخاب بین دو راهکار مزیت نسبی یا خودکفایی به عنوان راهبرد تولید محصولات این بخش است. از یک سو راهبرد مزیت نسبی که مبتنی بر اصول اقتصادی است، و در سوی دیگر، خودکفایی در تولید محصولات کشاورزی راهبردی است، که اگرچه یک هدف غیر اقتصادی است اما از نظر سیاسی اهمیت ویژه‌ای دارد. در این پژوهش کوشش خواهد شد عوامل مؤثر بر سطح زیر کشت محصولات راهبردی جو دیم، جو آبی، گندم دیم، گندم آبی، ذرت دانه‌ای آبی، چغندرقند، پنبه، سیب زمینی و پیاز که دارای خرید تضمینی هستند، در دوره زمانی1393-1385در قالب یک الگوی اقتصاد سنجی پنل پویا با استفاده از برآوردگر آرلانو- باور/ بلاندل- باند مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. نتایج نشان داد که متغیرهای قیمت تضمینی و وقفه سطح زیرکشت دارای اثر مثبت و معنی‌داری و متغیر هزینه تولید اثر منفی و معنی‌داری بر سطح زیرکشت محصولات راهبردی دارند. مطابق با نتایج، با افزایش یک درصدی در قیمت تضمینی انتظار می‌رود به شرط ثبات سایر شرایط، سطح زیرکشت 5/13% درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین افزایش یک درصدی هزینه‌ی تولید در هر هکتار، به شرط ثبات سایر شرایط، کاهش 14% درصدی سطح زیرکشت را در پی خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the effects of guaranteed prices and production costs on the cultivated area of agricultural strategic crops

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeid Yazdani 1
  • morteza hasnaki 2
  • Hossein Norouzi 3
1 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2 MSc. Student, Department of of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture Engineering and Rural Development, Agriculture and Natural Resources Khozestan University, Ahvaz, Iran
3 PhD. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the issues faced by policy makers of the agricultural sector is determining the production strategy of the country as well as choosing between either relative advantage or self-sufficiency as a strategy for producing the crops in agricultural sector. The relative advantage strategy is based on economic principles, and on the other hand, the self-sufficiency in strategic agricultural crops, although it is an uneconomic goal, But it is politically important. In this research, the factors affecting the cultivated area of rain-fed barley, irrigated barley, rain-fed wheat, irrigated wheat, irrigated corn, sugar beet, cotton, potatoes and onions with guaranteed prices will be assessed during the period 2006-2014 in the form of a dynamic panel econometric model using Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator. The results showed that variables of guaranteed price and lag in cultivated area had a positive and significant effect, but the production cost variables had a negative and significant effect on cultivated area of strategic crops. According to the results, with a 1% increase in the guaranteed price, it is expected that the cultivated area would increase by 0.135%, provided that other conditions are constant. Also, 1% increase in production costs per ha would result in a 0.14% decrease in the cultivated area if other conditions to be constant.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator
  • Dynamic panel model
  • Strategic products
  • Guaranteed Price

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 50، شماره 1
فروردین 1398
صفحه 19-28

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