تجارت جهانی و خودکفایی گندم در جهان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی

چکیده

بخش کشاورزی یکی از مهم­ترین بخش­های اقتصاد محسوب می­شود، از این رو خودکفایی در این بخش بسیار حایز اهمیت است. مقاله‌ حاضر به دنبال مطالعه اثرات تأسیس سازمان تجارت جهانی در سال 1995 بر خودکفایی تولید گندم پنج قاره جهان می­باشد و از آن‌جایی که تجزیه و تحلیل کمی تولید از طریق مقدار بهینه عوامل تولید در کشاورزی، از لوازم اصلی نیل به خودکفایی است، مقایسه تطبیقی سهم عوامل تولید گندم جهان، قبل و بعد از تأسیس سازمان تجارت جهانی از دیگر اهداف مورد بررسی می­باشد. از این رو برای دسترسی به اثرات نهاده‌ها، دو تابع تولید کاب و داگلاس طی سال‌های 1995-1981 و2010- 1996 برای کشور­های تولیدکننده گندم جهان به روش داده­های تابلویی برآورد گردیده است. نتایج نشان داد، طی دوره 30 ساله 2010-1980، روند خودکفایی تولید گندم سه قاره آفریقا، آمریکا و آسیا، از ثبات برخوردار بوده است، در حالی که  تأسیس WTO منجر به افزایش اندک در خودکفایی گندم قاره اروپا و کاهش نوسانات خودکفایی گندم قاره اقیانوسیه گردیده است. هم‌چنین، مشخص گردید که بذر مصرفی گندم قبل از تجارت جهانی و کود شیمیایی بعد از تجارت جهانی بیشترین اثرگذاری را بر عملکرد در هکتار گندم داشته­اند و سهم نهاده نیروی انسانی بعد از تجارت جهانی کاهش و بهره­وری این نهاده افزایش یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

World Trade and wheat self-sufficiency in the world

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahriar Nessabian
  • Azadeh Mehrabian
  • Homa Shekarian
Azad university, central barnch
چکیده [English]

The agricultural sector is one of the significant sectors of economy; therefore self-sufficiency in this sector is essential. This paper aims at the discussion on impacts of establishing WTO in 1995 on wheat production self-sufficiency of five continents. Since the quantitative analysis of the optimal level of agricultural factors is the main tool to achieve self-sufficiency, comparative study of world wheat production factors before and after the establishment of the WTO is another purpose of this study. To capture the effects of inputs, two separate Cobb-Douglas wheat production functions, by using panel data-set over 1981-1995 and 1996-2010, were applied. The results of study indicate that over a 30-year period; from 1980 to 2010; the trend of wheat self-sufficiency in Africa, America and Asia were stable. However, the establishment of the WTO led to a slight increase on Europe and fluctuation decline on Oceania wheat self-sufficiency. Besides, it was found that consumption of seed WTO and fertilizer after WTO, had the greatest impact on wheat yield. The contribution of labor force had reduced and productivity of this input had increased after world trade.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • World trade
  • Wheat self-sufficiency
  • Production Function
  • panel data

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 47، شماره 1
فروردین 1395
صفحه 93-107

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