عوامل بیرونی مؤثر بر نظام ترویج کشاورزی ایران تا افق 1404 شمسی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 دانشیار دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 استاد دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

4 معاون ترویج و آموزش سازمان تات

چکیده

هدف کلی این تحقیق، شناسایی عوامل بیرونی مؤثر بر نظام ترویج کشاورزی ایران تا افق سال 1404 شمسی با استفاده از آرای صاحب­نظران این حوزه است. طراحی این پژوهش کیفی با استفاده از تکنیک دلفای  (Delphi Technique) برای دستیابی به توافق گروهی صورت گرفت. جامعة آماری این تحقیق تمام سیاستگذاران نظام ترویج کشاورزی کشور هستند که با استفاده از روش نمونه­گیری هدفمند، بیست نفر از آن‌ها برای پاسخگویی به پرسش اصلی تحقیق انتخاب شدند. روایی پرسشنامه‌ها نیز توسط پانلی از متخصصان بررسی و تأیید شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد پاسخگویان احتمال وقوع شانزده عامل بیرونی مؤثر بر نظام ترویج کشاورزی ایران را تا افق سال 1404 شمسی در سطح «متوسط تا زیاد» بیان کردند که اجماع و توافق گروهی در احتمال وقوع پانزده عامل بین پاسخگویان به­دست آمد. این عوامل به‌ترتیب، در هفت دستة زیرساختی، بوم­شناسی، اقتصادی، فرهنگی، نهادی، انقلاب­های علمی و فناوری و جمعیتی طبقه­بندی شدند.

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