بررسی تأثیر نوسان قیمت نفت و تشدید تحریم‌ها بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منایع طبیعی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

3 استادیار، مرکز پژوهش‌های توسعه و آینده نگری، سازمان برنامه و بودجه کشور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

نفت و درآمدهای حاصل از آن یکی از ارکان مهم اقتصاد ایران است که قسمت عمده‌ای از منابع درآمدی دولت در  بودجه سنواتی از این منبع تأمین می‌شود. قیمت نفت در طی سال‌های مختلف به دلایل مختلفی چون سیاست‌ سایر کشورها، مسایل اجتماعی و سیاسی همواره در حال تغییر و نوسان بوده است. با توجه به اهمیت نفت در اقتصاد و اثرگذاری آن بر بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی از جمله بخش کشاورزی به عنوان یکی از بخش‌های مهم اقتصادی مؤثر بر تولیدناخالص داخلی، امنیت غذایی و اشتغال، در این مطالعه به بررسی اثر نوسانات قیمت نفت بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران با تأکید بر تشدید تحریم‌ها در بازه زمانی 1363-1397 پرداخته شده است.در این مطالعه از روش GARCH  برای برآورد نوسانات قیمت نفت و از روش ARDL  برای بررسی اثر کوتاه­مدت و بلندمدت نوسان قیمت نفت اوپک و تشدید تحریم‌ها بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان‌دهنده این است که در بلند مدت متغیر تشدید تحریم‌ها دارای  اثر مثبت بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی و نوسان قیمت نفت اوپک اثر منفی بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی دارند. بنابراین توجه به زیرساخت‌های بخش کشاورزی به­عنوان بخش نسبتاً با ثبات‌ اقتصاد کشور و پوشش ریسک قیمتی صادرات محصولات کشاورزی و واردات نهاده‌های تولید از طریق اتخاذ استراتژی مناسب در بازارهای مرتبط و ایجاد و توسعه شرکت‌های دانش‌بنیان در این حوزه، می‌تواند تضمین کننده رشد اقتصادی مثبت برای کل اقتصاد باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations and the Intensification of Sanctions on the Value Added of the Agricultural Sector Iran’s

نویسندگان [English]

  • Azhin Javaheri 1
  • Mahdi Pendar 2
  • Elham Vafaei 3
1 Master student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Development and Foresight Research Center, Planning and Budget Organization, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Oil and oil’s revenue are the most important items of economy that makes big part of government budget. over the years oil price has* been fluctuating because of factors such as political of other country, social issues and this fluctuation has impacts on development and economic growth. Considering the importance of oil in economy and its impact on various economic sectors, including agriculture which is a portent part of economy that has its effects on GDP, food security, employment and etc. This study investigated the impact of oil fluctuation price and the Intensification of Sanctions on value added of Iran's agriculture sector between 1984 and 2018. To estimate the oil price fluctuations using GARCH  model, and investigating short- run and long- run relationship between value added of agriculture and opec oil price fluctuations and the intensification of sanctions use ARDL model. The results show that in the long term, the intensification of sanctions has a positive effect on the value added of the agricultural sector and the fluctuation of OPEC oil prices has a negative effect on the value added of the agricultural sector. Therefore, paying attention to the infrastructure of the agricultural sector as a relatively stable sector of the country's economy and covering the price risk of exporting agricultural products and importing production inputs by adopting appropriate strategies in related markets and creating and developing knowledge-based companies in this field, can guarantee positive economic growth for the whole economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Oil price fluctuations
  • value added of agriculture
  • sanctions
  • NARDL model

مراجع

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 53، شماره 2
تیر 1401
صفحه 553-566

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