بررسی اثر شوک‌های سیاست‌های پولی بر قیمت گروه محصولات کشاورزی مختلف (غذایی-صنعتی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اداری، دانشگاه ولی‌عصر (عج) رفسنجان، ایران

2 کارشناس ارشد برنامه‌ریزی سیستم‌های اقتصادی، دانشگاه ولی‌عصر (عج) رفسنجان، ایران

چکیده

بخش کشاورزی از نظر تأمین مواد­غذایی جمعیت در حال رشد و هم‌چنین، تولید مواد و نهاده‌های موردنیاز صنایع، یکی از مهم‌ترین بخش‌های اقتصاد است. از این‌رو، نوسانات قیمت محصولات بخش کشاورزی موضوعی مهم است که باید موردبررسی قرار گیرد. مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثر شوک‌های سیاست‌های پولی بر قیمت گروه محصولات کشاورزی مختلف (غذایی-صنعتی)، با استفاده از روش گشتاور تعمیم‌یافته (GMM) در طی دوره زمانی 1398-1380 می‌پردازد. در این راستا، تغییرات حجم پول به‌عنوان پروکسی سیاست پولی در سطح ملّی مورداستفاده قرارگرفته است. برای به­دست آوردن شوک‌های سیاست پولی از فیلتر هودریک-پرسکات (HP) استفاده شد.  نتایج نشان می‌دهد، شوک‌های پیش‌بینی‌شده و شوک‌های پیش‌بینی‌نشده حجم پول بر روی قیمت محصولات کشاورزی اثر می‌گذارند. اما، شدّت اثرگذاری این دو متفاوت از هم است. به‌طوری‌که شوک‌های پیش‌بینی‌شده در هر دو گروه منتخب (غذایی- صنعتی) دارای اثری مثبت و معنادار هستند؛ اما شوک‌های پیش‌بینی‌نشده در گروه محصولات غذایی کشاورزی اثری بی‌معنی  دارند و در گروه محصولات صنعتی کشاورزی دارای اثری مثبت و معنادار می‌باشند. علاوه بر این، نتایج نشان می‌دهد، تأثیر شوک‌های سیاست پولی بر قیمت‌ محصولات کشاورزی در هر دو گروه موردنظر نامتقارن است. این بدان معناست که اثرات شوک پولی پیش‌بینی‌شده و ‌پیش‌بینی‌نشده بر قیمت محصولات کشاورزی یکسان نیست.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the effect of monetary policy shocks on the price of the agricultural commodities (food-industrial)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Eskandaripour 1
  • Omid Sattari 1
  • Parisa Pas 2
1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Administrative Science & Economics, Vali-E-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Iran
2 MSc of Economic Systems Planning, Vali-E-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Iran
چکیده [English]

   The agricultural sector is one of the most important sectors of the economy in terms of food supply for the growing population and the production of materials and inputs needed by industries. Therefore, price fluctuation in agricultural commodities prices is a significant issue to be studied.  This study examines the effect of monetary policy shocks on the price of different agricultural commodities (food-industrial) using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach for the period 2001-2019. The volume of money as a proxy for monetary policy at the national level has been used. The Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter is used to identify monetary policy shocks. The findings of this study suggest that although anticipated shocks and unanticipated shocks of money supply affect the price of agricultural commodities, the intensity of these impacts are different. So that the anticipated shocks in both commodities groups (food-industrial) play a significant positive role in agricultural commodity prices. While unanticipated monetary shock have a positive and significant effect on prices for the group of agricultural industrial commodities, it appears to have had virtually no effect on prices for the agricultural food commodities group. Besides, the results show that the effect of monetary policy shocks on prices of agricultural commodities is asymmetric in two groups. This means that the effects of the anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks on agricultural prices are not the same.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • : monetary policy
  • monetary policy shocks
  • agricultural commodity price
  • Generalized Method of Moments-GMM

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 52، شماره 4
دی 1400
صفحه 863-878

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