آزمون جدایی‌پذیری ضعیف و برآورد سیستم تقاضای گوشت در ایران (کاربرد سیستم تقاضای روتردام)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران ، ایران

2 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران ، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

4 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

وجود جدایی­پذیری در تابع مطلوبیت مصرف­کنندگان شرط لازم و کافی برای بودجه­­بندی چند‌مرحله‌ای و جمعی­سازی سازگار کالاهاست که در آن مخارج با استفاده از شاخص­های قیمت بین گروه‌های خوراکی تخصیص داده می­شود و تخصیص درون­گروهی هم به طور مستقل از سایر گروه­ها صورت می­پذیرد. با توجه به بالا بودن سهم انواع گوشت (23 درصد مخارج خوراکی و آشامیدنی خانوار) در بودجه خانوار و نقش مهم تغذیه­ای گوشت در سلامتی افراد، در این مطالعه از تابع تقاضای روتردام برای تعیین الگوی مصرف کالاهای گوشتی در ایران استفاده شده است. در مطالعات تجربی تقاضا، از مفهوم تفکیک­پذیری جهت برآورد صحیح تابع تقاضا و محدود نمودن تعداد پارامترها استفاده می‌شود. برای این منظور از داده­های مربوط به شاخص قیمت و هزینه انواع گوشت­ها (دام، طیور، ماهی) بانک مرکزی طی سال­های 1396-1374 استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از آزمون­های جدایی­پذیری این فرضیه را که مصرف­کنندگان ابتدا درآمد خود را بین 13 کالای گوشت به صورت سه گروه ( دام، طیور، ماهی) تخصیص داده و سپس عمل تخصیص درآمد بین انواع زیر رده­های گوشت که بر اساس گروه­بندی صورت گرفته را تایید می­نماید. همچنین، نتایج تخمین سیستم تقاضا نشان داد ﻫﻤـﻪ ﮔﺮوه­های ﻛـﺎﻻﻳﻲ، دارای کشش قیمتی  منفی هستند. در این میان کشش قیمتی گروه­های گوشت دام، طیور و گوشت ماهی به ترتیب برابر 89/0-، 59/0-، 77/0- می­باشند. پیشنهاد اساسی  پژوهش حاضر این است که پیش از هر گونه اقدامی در رویکرد سیستم تقاضا، باید آزمون­های تفکیک­پذیری ضعیف صورت گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Testing of Weak Separability and Estimating of Meat Demand System in Iran (Application of Rotterdam Demand System)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amin Delavar 1
  • Gholamreza Yavari 2
  • Saeid Yazdani 3
  • Afshin Amjadi 4
  • Abolfazl Mahmoodi 2
1 PhD Student of Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Planning Research, Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The separability of consumer desires is a necessary and sufficient condition for multi-stage budgeting and collectivization is consistent of commodity where costs are allocated between edible groups by price indices and intergroup allocations are made independently other groups. Given the high share of meat types (23 percent of household food and beverage expenditure) in the household budget and the important nutritional role of meat in people's health  to  determine the consumption pattern of meat products in Iran used to Rotterdam demand function in this study. In empirical studies of demand, the concept of separation is employed to correctly estimate demand function and limit the number of parameters. For this purpose, data of price index and cost of meat types (livestock, birds, fish) central Bank over the years 1995-2016 were used. The results of the separability tests support the hypothesis that a consumer first divide their income between 13 meat products in three groups (livestock, birds, fish) assigns and then approves the allocation action between the types of meat subgroups that are grouped. Also, the results  of system estimation showed that the groups had a negative intrinsic price elasticity.In the meantime, the price elasticity of groups livestock meat, birds and  fish meat are respectively equal to -0.89, -0.59 and  -0.77. This study suggest doing weak separability tests before each action on the demand system approach. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rotterdam Model
  • Weak Separation
  • Meat Demand Function

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 52، شماره 2
تیر 1400
صفحه 215-228

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