نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه آینده پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت استراتژیک دانشگاه دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران
2 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران
3 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران
4 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
For a number of reasons, including more compliance with the religious democratic system and inconsistency with the criteria of the capitalistic economic system, in Islamic revolution, the cooperative sector could well receive increased attention on the part of the economic activists. Also, in the pursuit, a great effort has been made for further strength of the sector This research was an attempt to develop scenarios for the future of cooperatives economy system in Iran. To do this, scenario development method was used. The data was gathered through a review of available documents and articles as well as interviews with 18 experts with a very good command of cooperatives economy. Regarding that the national economy is currently dominated by the government, the key identified uncertainties for cooperative economy included: Whether the government supports or not and whether people embrace or not. Considering the two- sided nature of the uncertainties, four scenarios could be conceived. Scenario1 as the most desirable one to occur for cooperative economy in the next decade was metaphorically named: climb of cooperatives. In scenario 2, absence of willingness in people, as the major factor responsible for the growth of cooperatives, would result in the gradual decline or “descend of cooperatives“. Under scenario 3, in spite of absence of supports by the government, popular willingness causes cooperatives to experience a gradual growth (take off) in short-term and an increasing trend in long term. Scenario 4 which is less likely to occur as compared to the other scenarios, would lead to the collapse (crash) of cooperatives in Iran. In order to manipulate the uncertainties for a better result, general and specific solutions were provided to bring the Cooperatives Economy System closer to the intended vision for the next decade and prevention from undesirable ones.
کلیدواژهها [English]
10. Glenn, J.C.,and Gordon, T.G.(2004). The Encyclopedia of Futures Studies Methods (Translated by Marziyeh KeyGhobadi and Farkhondeh Maleki). Tehran: Tisa (in Farsi).
11. Goldasteh , A.(2017). Foresight in Higher Education:Based on Scenario Method. Tehran: Center for Research on National Academic Policy (in Farsi)
12. Haji,L., Chizari, M., & Chobchian, Sh.(2017). Factor analysis of the sustainable developmentdrivers of agricultural producers coopratives in Naghedeh Township as viewed by the members.Journal of Agricultural Economic Research, 48(2), 299-309 (In Farsi)
13. Hogeland, Julie A. (2015). Managing Uncertainty and Expectations: The Strategic Response of US Agricultural Cooperatives to Agricultural Industrialization. Journal of Cooperative Organization and Management,3,60-71 (see: http://www.jobportal.ir).
14. ICA,(2018),Cooperatives and the Future of Work. Brussels, Belgium.
15. ICA,(2018),Cooperatives and the Future of Work: Position Paper, 30 April
16. 2018. (see: www.RESCOOP.eu).
17. ILO,(2015),Small and Medium-sized Enterprises and Decent and Productive
18. Employment Creation.Geneva:ILO.
19. ILO,(2016),Provision of Care through Cooperatives.Genova:ILO.
20. Khosravi,H., andYazdani,M.(2017). The Reasons for Inefficiency OF Outline Policices of Article 44 for the Development of Cooperative Sector in 2016-2015. Cooperative and Agricultre Journal 6(23),171-210, Tehran: Ministry of Cooperatives (in Farsi).
21. Mashima,P.(1995). Cooperative Principles and Values: Some Guidelines for Managing Asian Consumer Cooperatives (Translated by Hossain Amiri). Cooperative Journal. Vol. 47,22-25 Tehran: Ministry of cooperatives (in Farsi).
22. Julie A. Hogeland (2015)Managing Uncertainty and Expectations: The strategic response of Us Agricultural cooperatives to agricultural industrialization
23. Mehri,K., Safaei,S.,and Amini Bardpareh, E. (2016). A Study on the Obstacles to the Development of Erontiersmen cooperatives Using Theme Analaysis Method. Joural of management and Development Process 29(3) 123-150. Tehran (in Farsi).
24. Najafi,M., Nouri, H., & Amini, A, M.(2019). Assessing the Role of Management in Performance of Rural ProductionCooperatives: (A Case Study of Isfahan Province).Journal of Agricultural Economic Research, 50(3), 531-547 (In Farsi)
25. Nazemi, A.(2012). Scenario Method: Training Handbook Servies. Tehran: Education and Research Institute of Defence Industries , 1 th ed(in Farsi).
26. Pedram,A.R.,and’zali,s.(2015). Scenario Development Process in strategic Issues : case study of Future Scenarios for Syria’s Crisis . Tehran: Institute of Strategic Futures Studies Horizon, 1 th ed (in Farsi)
27. . Porter, M. (1985). Competitive Advantage. The Free Press, New York, USA
28. Ringland, G.(1998). Scenario Planning: managing for the Future. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, England.
29. Roelants,B., Dovgan, D. , Eum, H.S. ,and Terrasi , E.(2012). The Resilience of the Cooperative Model: How Worker Cooperatives, Social Cooperatives and other worker-owned enterprises respond to the Crisis and Its Conseqaunces. EUROPEAN COMMISSION-CECOP- Europe.
30. Roelant, S.,Eum, H.S., and Terrasi, E,(2014),Cooperatives and Employment:
31. A Global Report. Brussels: CICOPA.
32. Rostami Shahrebabaki, H.(2016). Cooperative in simple words. Tehran: Ministry of Cooperatives (in Farsi).
33. Sarmad,Z.,Bazargan,A.,and Hejazi,E.(2010). Research Methods in Behavioral Science (zothed.). Tehran: Agah(in Farsi).
34. Tabibi, J., Maleki , M.R.,and Delgoshaei,B. (2014). Compilation of Thesis’Dissertation , Research Proposal and Artile (5 thed.) Tehran: Diba (in farsi).
35. Taleb,M.(1997).Coperative Principles and Ideas ,Publisher university of Tehran : Tehran. (in Farsi).
36. Yazdani,S., Riahi, A., & Peikani, Gh.(2017). Economic analysis of pareh coopratives in Mazandaran provice. Journal of Agricultural Economic Research, 48(2), 211-226 (In Farsi)
)