عوامل موثر بر رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد رهیافت میانگین‌گیری مدل بیزین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 دکتری تخصصی اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

طیف وسیع عوامل موثر بر رشد در مبانی نظری و مطالعات تجربی و ضعف روش­های متعارف موجب شده است که مطالعات تنها بر یک جنبه از الگوهای رشد نظری و تجربی تمرکز کنند. این مساله، نااطمینانی در خصوص تصریح یا ترکیب متغیرها در الگو و ضرایب برآورد شده را به­همراه دارد. این نااطمینانی می­تواند منجر به تورش و عدم کارایی در برآورد ضرایب شود که نتیجه آن، پیش­بینی­های نامناسب و استنتاج آماری اشتباه است. از این­رو، در مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از روش میانگین­گیری بیزین، تأثیر مهم‌ترین عوامل موثر بر رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران در دوره زمانی 96-1357 بررسی شده است. با استفاده از این رهیافت، تمام زیرالگوهای ممکن با استفاده از متغیرهای مطالعه برآورد می­شود و سپس، ضریب هر متغیر در تمامی الگوها میانگین­گیری می­شود. وزن­ها در این میانگین­گیری، بر اساس قاعده بیز یا احتمال پسین هر الگو تعیین می­شود. بدین منظور، در این مطالعه 2048 الگوی متفاوت برآورد شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که سرمایه­گذاری، توسعه مالی و درآمدهای نفتی به ترتیب با احتمال تاثیر 81/0، 67/0 و 42/0، مهم­ترین متغیرهای موثر بر رشد بخش کشاورزی هستند و همچنین، نرخ رشد واردات محصولات کشاورزی با احتمال تاثیر 90/0 بیشترین تاثیر منفی را بر رشد ارزش افزوده این بخش دارد. از این­رو، سرمایه­گذاری و تامین بودجه تولیدکنندگان، توجه به تولیدات داخلی و تنظیم سیاست­های تجاری در زمینه واردات باید در اولویت سیاست­­گزاری و برنامه­ریزی این بخش قرار بگیرد.

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