بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تجارت آب مجازی محصول گندم با استفاده از مدل جاذبه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی،‌ دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران

چکیده

افزایش تقاضای منابع آب ناشی از رشد جمعیت و توسعه اقتصادی از یک سو و هدر رفت آب و کاهش بارندگی از سوی دیگر، توجه به سمت تقاضای آب در سطح کلان و سیاست­گذاری را ضروری ساخته است. با توجه به رویکرد جدید کشورها در موضوع تجارت آب مجازی و بنابر جایگاه نظریه هکشر - اوهلین (H-O)، بررسی تجارت آب مجازی نکات ارزنده­ای برای برنامه­ریزان بخش آب و کشاورزی به همراه خواهد داشت. این پژوهش به بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تجارت آب مجازی (VWT) با استفاده از مدل جاذبه (GM) بر اساس تئوری H-O پرداخته شده است.  بدین منظور با استفاده از پایگاه داده­های بین­المللی بانک جهانی و فائو، آمار محصول گندم در کشورهای منتخب در بازه زمانی 4دوره 5 ساله طی سال های 1994-2013 گرد­آوری گردید. در طی بازه زمانی مورد مطالعه، کل حجم آب مجازی وارد شده و صادر شده گندم به ترتیب معادل  44.1  و 7/235 میلیارد متر مکعب بوده است. بیشترین اثرگذاری بر  GMمربوط به سطح زیر کشت محصول گندم با ضریب تعیین 2.54- است. با توجه به بی اثر بودن قیمت آب بر تجارت آب مجازی می­توان بر ارزش­گذاری منطقی قیمت آب به منظور تفکیک تعرفه نرخ آب بها توجه ویژه نشان داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating Factors Affecting Virtual Water Trade in wheat production Using Gravity Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elham Shirzadi 1
  • Ali Sayehmiri 2
  • Heshmatollah Asgari 3
1 Graduate student in Economics, Economics Department, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
چکیده [English]

Increasing demand for water resources due to population growth and economic development on one hand, and water loss and rainfall reduction, on the other hand, have required attention to the demand for water at macro level and policy making. With regard to the new approach of countries in virtual water trade and according to the Heckcher-Oholian theory (H-O), the study of virtual water trade will provide valuable points for planners and policymakers in the water and agriculture sector. In this study, the factors affecting virtual water trade (VWT) using the gravity model (GM) based on the H-O theory was studied. to this end, using the World Bank and FAO international databases, wheat crop statistics were collected in selected countries over a period of 4 years’ period of 5 years from 1994 to 2013. During the study period, the total volume of imported and exported wheat was 44.1 and 235.7 billion cubic meters, respectively. The highest effect on GM is on wheat cultivar with a coefficient of -2.54. Considering the ineffectiveness of water prices on virtual water trade, it is possible to pay a special attention to the rationale of water pricing in order to differentiate water tariffs.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Virtual Water Trading
  • Effective Factors
  • Gravity Model
  • Wheat
  • Heckcher-Oholian

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 50، شماره 3
مهر 1398
صفحه 501-513

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