اثر تغییر اقلیم بر کارایی هزینه گاوداری‌های شیری در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

دام‌های شیری نسبت به تنش‌های گرمایی ایجاد شده در نتیجه تغییرات آب و هوایی، بسیار حساس هستند و این مسئله مستقیماً بر کارایی و سود آوری این واحدها اثر گذار است. علی رغم اهمیت بالای این موضوع اما مطالعات اقتصادی که به تحلیل ارتباط کارایی واحدهای تولید شیر و تغییرات اقلیمی پرداخته باشد بسیار محدود است. بنابراین هدف از این مطالعه بررسی اثر تغییرات اقلیمی بر کارایی هزینه واحدهای تولید شیر در نظر گرفته شد. برای این منظور با استفاده از اطلاعات 11 منطقه پر تولید کشور در سالهای 1368، 1372، 1379، 1386، 1392 و 1395، تابع هزینه مرزی تصادفی در فرم ترانسلوگ با لحاظ شاخص دما-رطوبت به عنوان شاخصی از تغییرات اقلیمی، براورد گردید. نتایج نشان می دهد که استان‌های اصفهان، قم و تهران با کارایی معادل 54/0 دارای کمترین و استان‌های آذربایجان شرقی، مازندران و گلستان با کارایی تقریب به 75/0 دارای بیشترین سطح کارایی هزینه تولید شیر هستند. همچنین تغییرات شاخص THI بر کارایی هزینه در استان‌های مورد مطالعه دارای اثر منفی و معنادار است. بنابراین لازم است در سیاست‌ اصلاح نژاد تنها به انتخاب ژنتیکی برای افزایش تولید شیر توجه نشود، بلکه سازگاری آن با شرایط اقلیمی نیز مد نظر قرار گیرد.

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