سنجش تغییرات ترجیحات مصرف کنندگان آلمانی از پسته ایران و آمریکا با استفاده از روش ناپارامتری ترجیحات آشکار شده

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی.کرج، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، کرج، ایران

چکیده

مشاهده افلاتوکسین در پسته ایران در مقاطی از زمان از یک سو و تداوم جایگزینی پسته آمریکا بجای پسته ایران در بازار آلمان این فرضیه را تداعی می کند که ممکن است تغییراتی در ترجیحات مصرف‎کنندگان آلمانی به ضرر پسته ایران رخ داده باشد. تحقیق حاضر به دنبال آن است این فرضیه را مورد آزمون قرار دهد. در این راستا، اطلاعات و آمار مربوط به واردات پسته آلمان از ایران و آمریکا طی دوره 2015-1988 با استفاده از رهیافت ناپارامتریک بر مبنای اصول ضعیف و قوی  ترجیحات آشکار شده بررسی شده است. به علاوه، برای اطمینان از معنی‎داری نقض‎های احتمالی مشاهده شده از آزمون K-W کمک گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان داد اولا، تغییرات ساختاری در ترجیحات مصرف‎کنندگان آلمانی پسته ایران به ضرر پسته ایران رخ داده است. ثانیا، منشاء  اصلی بروز این رخداد ملاحظات بهداشتی ناشی از مشاهد افلاتوکسین در پسته ایران بوده است. بنابراین، بدست آوردن دوباره بازار آلمان برای صادرکنندگان ایرانی کاری دشوار است. اطمینان از تداوم صادرات پسته سالم و تضمین آن توسط مسئولین رسمی بهداشتی شاید بتواند کمکی به بازگرداندن بازار آلمان به صادرکنندگان پسته ایران باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

A non-parametric Approach to Specifying Changes of Preferences German Consumers for the Iranian and U.S. Pistachios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Habibollah Salami 1
  • Sohrab Sadafi Abkenar 2
1 Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Tehran, Iran
2 Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Observing aflatoxin in Iranian pistachio from time to time and continuing substitution of U.S. pistachios instead of the Iranian one in the German market suggests that changes in the preferences of German consumers may have occurred against Iran's pistachios. The present study seeks to test this hypothesis. Given that, data on imports of pistachios from Iran and the United States during the period of 1988-2015 have been examined using a nonparametric approach based on the weak and strong axiom of revealed preferences. In addition, the K-W test has been used to test the significance of the observed violations. Results showed that, structural changes have occurred in the preferences of German consumers against Iranian pistachios. Additionally, the main reason for the observed preference changes roots in the health considerations by the German consumers. Hence, it would be difficult for Iranian exporters to regain the German market. Ensuring the continuity of healthy pistachio production and its guarantee by the official health authorities may help to restore the German market to Iranian pistachio exporters.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Pistachio
  • Nonparametric approach
  • K-W Test
  • WARP
  • SARP

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 50، شماره 1
فروردین 1398
صفحه 79-95

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