ارزیابی اقتصادی الگوی بهینه کشت در راستای کاهش استفاده از منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت دهگلان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در سال‌های اخیر دشت دهگلان، به علت پدیده خشکسالی و برداشت بیش از حد از منابع آب، با افت شدید سطح آب زیرزمینی و فرونشست زمین مواجه بوده است. باتوجه به این مهم، یکی از مهمترین راهکارهای مدیریت مصرف آب، مدیریت الگوی کشت است که در شرایط خشکسالی این راهکار در رفع بحران کم‌آبی اهمیت بیشتری پیدا می‌کند. این دشت با وسعت 4/62 هزار هکتار و مختصات 10 047 تا 44 048 طول جغرافیایی شرقی و 00 035 تا 32 035 عرض جغرافیایی شمالی در شرق استان کردستان قرار دارد. این پژوهش با هدف تدوین الگوی بهینه کشت محصولات زراعی (گندم، جو، یونجه، پیاز، سیب‌زمینی، شبدر و اسپرس) تحت شرایط کم‌آبی به‌منظور ارائه برنامه بهینه آبیاری، جهت حصول بیشینه‌سازی سود ناخالص مزرعه طرح‌ریزی و اجرا شد. به این منظور، از آمار و اطلاعات سال زراعی 96-1395 به عنوان ورودی های مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی اثباتی (PMP) استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان داد که با تدوین الگوی بهینه کشت محصولات زراعی، مقدار صرفه‌جویی آب در سناریوی اول تا سوم به ترتیب به میزان 1/22، 5/30 و 5/35 درصد و سود ناخالص مزرعه به ترتیب 6/4، 3/9 و 8/14 درصد کاهش می­یابد. لذا می‌توان گفت که اعمال سیاست کم‌آبیاری در مراحلی از رشد محصولات که حساسیت کمتری نسبت به تنش کم‌آبی دارند، باعث می­شود که کشاورزان الگوی کشت محصولاتی را انتخاب نمایند که منافع اقتصادی بالایی در مقایسه با کشت سایر محصولات دارند.

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