ارزیابی اقتصادی الگوی بهینه کشت در راستای کاهش استفاده از منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت دهگلان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در سال‌های اخیر دشت دهگلان، به علت پدیده خشکسالی و برداشت بیش از حد از منابع آب، با افت شدید سطح آب زیرزمینی و فرونشست زمین مواجه بوده است. باتوجه به این مهم، یکی از مهمترین راهکارهای مدیریت مصرف آب، مدیریت الگوی کشت است که در شرایط خشکسالی این راهکار در رفع بحران کم‌آبی اهمیت بیشتری پیدا می‌کند. این دشت با وسعت 4/62 هزار هکتار و مختصات ‘10 047 تا ‘44 048 طول جغرافیایی شرقی و ‘00 035 تا ‘32 035 عرض جغرافیایی شمالی در شرق استان کردستان قرار دارد. این پژوهش با هدف تدوین الگوی بهینه کشت محصولات زراعی (گندم، جو، یونجه، پیاز، سیب‌زمینی، شبدر و اسپرس) تحت شرایط کم‌آبی به‌منظور ارائه برنامه بهینه آبیاری، جهت حصول بیشینه‌سازی سود ناخالص مزرعه طرح‌ریزی و اجرا شد. به این منظور، از آمار و اطلاعات سال زراعی 96-1395 به عنوان ورودی های مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی اثباتی (PMP) استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان داد که با تدوین الگوی بهینه کشت محصولات زراعی، مقدار صرفه‌جویی آب در سناریوی اول تا سوم به ترتیب به میزان 1/22، 5/30 و 5/35 درصد و سود ناخالص مزرعه به ترتیب 6/4، 3/9 و 8/14 درصد کاهش می­یابد. لذا می‌توان گفت که اعمال سیاست کم‌آبیاری در مراحلی از رشد محصولات که حساسیت کمتری نسبت به تنش کم‌آبی دارند، باعث می­شود که کشاورزان الگوی کشت محصولاتی را انتخاب نمایند که منافع اقتصادی بالایی در مقایسه با کشت سایر محصولات دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic evaluation of optimum cultivating pattern for reducing the use of groundwater in Dehgolan plain

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Ali Asadi 1
  • Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo 2
1 PhD. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In recent years, the Dehgolan plain has been faced by a sharp drop in groundwater and land subsidence due to the drought and over-harvesting of water resources. Hence, one of the most important water management practices is management of cultivating pattern that has more importance in drought situations in order to reduce water super-crisis. This plain with an area of 62.4 thousand hectares and the coordinates of 10' 470 to 44' 480 eastern longitudes and 00' 350 to 32' 350 northern Latitudes is at the eastern of Kurdistan province. This research was designed to develop an optimal cropping pattern (wheat, barley, alfalfa, onion, potato, clover and sainfoin) for under low water conditions. Moreover, this paper presented an optimal irrigation program for maximizing the gross profit of the farm. For this purpose, data from the crop years of 2016-2017 was used as input of Positive Mathematical Programming Model. The results showed that in the optimum conditions for plant production, the amount of water saving in the first to third scenario was 22.1%, 30.5%, and 35.5%. On the other hand, the gross profit of the farm decreased 4.6%, 9.3% and 14.8% respectively. Consequently, it can be said that applying irrigation policy in stages of growth of products that are less susceptible to dehydration results in farmers to select a cultivation pattern that has high economic benefits compared to cultivating other product.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Deficit irrigation
  • Positive Mathematical Programming
  • Groundwater
  • Dehgolan Plain

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 50، شماره 1
فروردین 1398
صفحه 29-43

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