بررسی آثار متغیر‌های کلان اقتصادی و سیاست حمایتی بر رشد بخش کشاورزی در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

رشد بخش کشاورزی به عنوان بستری برای کسب اهداف توسعه در کشورهای در حال توسعه امری ضروری قلمداد می‌شود. با توجه به اهمیت بخش کشاورزی و همچنین ماهیت مخاطره‌آمیز تولید، فسادپذیری و سایر اهداف، حمایت از بخش کشاورزی همیشه مورد توجه دولت‌ها بوده است. در این پژوهش آثار متغیر‌های کلان اقتصادی و سیاست حمایتی بر رشد بخش کشاورزی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در این راستا عامل‌های مؤثر بر ارزش افزوده، تشکیل سرمایه ناخالص، صادرات و واردات بخش کشاورزی با استفاده از الگوی حداقل مربعات سه مرحله‌ای به صورت یک سیستم معادلات هم‌زمان چهار معادله‌ای در دوره 1394-1360 بررسی گردید. متغیرهای نسبت سرمایه به نیروی‌کار، حمایت از تولیدکننده، حمایت از مصرف‌کننده، صادرات فرآورده‌های کشاورزی، وقفه ‌ارزش افزوده بر ارزش افزوده بخش به ترتیب با ضرایب  111/0، 021/0، 008/0، 156/0، 488/0 اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار داشتند. همچنین متغیر واردات با ضریب 120/0- اثر معنی‌دار و منفی بر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی دارد. عامل‌های مؤثر بر صادرات، واردات و تشکیل سرمایه ناخالص بخش کشاورزی، تصریح گردیند. نتایج نشان داد که سیاست حمایتی بر بخش، کارآیی لازم را نداشته و لزوم توجه برنامه‌ریزان و سیاستگذاران به میزان و نحوه تخصیص حمایت‌ها را بیش از پیش ضروری نشان می‌دهد.

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