تحلیل و ارزیابی ریسک‌های مرتبط با تولید گندم در زنجیره تأمین نان استان خوزستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری ترویج کشاورزی، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

2 دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

3 استادیار دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه کشاورزی ومنابع طبیعی رامین خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

4 دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی رامین خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

هدف از این پژوهش، ارزیابی ریسک­های مرتبط با تولید گندم در زنجیره تأمین نان استان خوزستان است که در دو فاز انجام گرفته  است. به این منظور از روش  پژوهش ترکیبی- اکتشافی استفاده گردید که در فاز اول از تئوری­بنیانی برای شناسایی ریسک و در فاز دوم از پیمایش مقطعی برای ارزیابی ریسک مورد بهره برداری قرار گرفت. در فاز اول، از میان جامعه آماری، شامل کارشناسان و کشاورزان پیش‌رو در تولید گندم، 15 نفر به روش  نمونه­گیری هدفمند ترکیبی(بارز و موارد شناخته­شده) به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. ابزار جمع­آوری اطلاعات در این مرحله، مصاحبه نیمه­ساختارمند و مشاهده بوده است. در فاز دوم،  از میان جامعه آماری، شامل کشاورزان گندمکار،150 نفر به روش نمونه­گیری هدفمند بارز به عنوان نمونه انتخاب گردیدند. . ابزار جمع­آوری اطلاعات در این مرحله، چک­لیست بوده است. به منظور تحلیل داده­ها از تکنیک ارزیابی حالت‌های شکست و اثرات آن استفاده  شد. قابلیت اعتبار ریسک­های شناسایی شده و روایی چک­لیست­ها با نظر صاحب‌نظران و متخصصین مربوطه مورد تأیید قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از تئوری بنیانی در فاز اول، 12 مقوله ریسک، شناسایی شد و نتایج ارزیابی ریسک­ها نیز بیانگر آن بود که به ترتیب ریسک محیطی، ریسک ایمنی محصول و محیط زیست، ریسک تأمین نهاده­ها، ریسک فعالیت­های زراعی، ریسک زیرساخت­ها، ریسک فناوری، ریسک دسترسی به اطلاعات و آموزش­های ترویجی، ریسک مالی، ریسک زمانی، ریسک بازار، ریسک  پژوهش و توسعه، ریسک انسانی در اولویت­بندی ریسک­های مرتبط با تولید گندم قرار دارند. همچنین ریسک محیطی در زمره یکی از ریسک­های بسیار نیرومند، ریسک ایمنی محصول و محیط زیست به عنوان یکی از ریسک­های  نیرومند و ریسک­های بازار،  پژوهش و توسعه انسانی از جمله ریسک­های ضعیف ارزیابی شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


  1. Abdolrahman, B., Shahi, A., Valizadeh, Gh. R., Mohebalipour, N. (2015). Effect of different amounts of nitrogen fertilizer consumption on germination ability of seed, seedling and rainfed wheat grain yield in parent plants. Journal of Applied Research of Plant Ecophysiology, 2(1), 29-46. (In Farsi).
  2. Adeli, B., Moradi, H. R., Keshavarz, M., Amirnezhad, H. (2014). Drought and its economic reflections in rural areas (Dodange village in Behbahan city). Quarterly Journal of Economics of and Rural Development and Space, 3(3), 131-148. (In Farsi).
  3. Adib Haj Bagheri, M. and Salsali, M., (2005). Qualitative Research Methods, Bashari Publication. (In Farsi).
  4. Ahmed, G., Hamrick,D., Guinn,A., Abdulsamad,A., Gereffi,G. (2013).  Wheat Value Chains and Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa Region. Center on Globalization, Governance and Competitiveness, Duke University.
  5.  Aimin, H. (2010). Uncertainty, Risk Aversion and Risk Management in. journal of Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 1, 152-156.
  6.  Alijani, F., Karbashi, A. R., Mozafari Mosen, M. (2011). The effect of temperature and rainfall on the irrigated wheat yield in Iran. Journal of Economics and Development, 19(76). (In Farsi).
  7. Amid, J. (2007). The dilemma of cheap food and self-sufficiency: The case of wheat in Iran. Food Policy Journal, 32, 537-552.
  8. Asadi, A., Akbari, M., Mohammadi, Y., Hossaininia, G. H. (2010). Agricultural Wheat Waste Management in Iran. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 4(3): 421-428
  9. Asadi kaporchal, S., Homaie, M., Pazira, A. (2012). Modeling of leaching water in order to improving of saline soils. Journal of Water and Soil Conservation, 3(2), 65-83.(In Farsi).
  10. Ashtari, F., Sharififard, H., Shankari, M., Kykavosi, A., Hashemifard, A., Golafshan, A. (2013). Recognizing of Khuzestan province. Publisher:  Printing company of Iran textbooks, Third edition. (In Farsi).
  11. Azizi Khalkhili, T., Zamani, Gh. H., Karami, E. A.(2016). Adaptation of farmers with climatic fluctuations: Problems and obstacles and suggested solutions. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(3), 148-159. (In Farsi)
  12. Bayat Movahed, F., Nick Kami, D., Shami, H. (2009). Investigation of reducing mechanism of soil erosion in rainfed lands. Journal of Engineering and Watershed Management, 1(4). (In Farsi).
  13. Berbel, J., and Gomez-limon, J.A. (2000). The impact of water-pricing policy in Spain: An analysis of three irrigated areas. Agriculture Water Management, 43, 219-238.
  14. Bond, M., Meacham, T., Bhunnoo, R. and Benton, T.G. (2013). Food waste within global food systems. A Global Food Security report from www.foodsecurity.ac.uk.
  15.  Barnett, B., and Coble. K. (2008). Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Trans­fer Products. Journal of World Development 36, 1766–1785.
  16.  Burger, K& Warner,J. (2012). Risk Governance of Food Supply Chains. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC),  Public Sector Governance of Emerging Risks.
  17. Chen K. (2006). Agri-Food Supply Chain Management: Opportunities, Issues, and Guidelines. (eds). Proceedings of International Conference on Livestock Services, April 16-22, Beijing, People’s Republic of China.
  18.  Danaiefard, H., Alvani, M., Azar, A. (2016). Qualitative Research Methodology in Management: A Comprehensive Approach. Safar publication, four Edition. (In Farsi).
  19. Damalas, C. A., & Koutroubas, S. D. (2017).Farmers’ Training on Pesticide Use Is Associated with Elevated Safety Behavior. Toxics, 5(19).  Doi:10.3390/toxics5030019.
  20. Deep,A& Dani, S. (2009). Managing Global Food Supply Chain Risks: A Scenario Planning Perspective. (eds). Proceedings of  POMS 20th Annual Conference.
  21. Dini, F & Andika, A. (2016). Supply Chain Risk Management in the Indonesian Flavor Industry: Case Study from a Multinational Flavor Company in Indonesia. (eds). Proceedings of International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
  22. Doust Mohamadi, M. M., Ezadpanah, Z. (2013). Investigating variations in virtual water volume, production rate, yield, for increasing efficiency of agricultural water use in rainfed and irrigated wheat. (eds). Proceedings of  First National Behran Water Conference, Islamic Azad university, Khorasgan Isfahan. (In Farsi).
  23. Eslahi, M. R., & Mojerlou, S. (2016).  Modeling of crop loss caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici in three common wheat cultivars in southern Iran. Journal Crop Production, 5 (3), 389-395
  24.  Farhangfar, S., Bannayan, M., Khazaei, H. R., Mousavi Baygi, M. (2015).Vulnerability assessment of wheat and maize production affected by drought and climate change, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 13, 37-51.
  25. Farshadfar, E., Jamshidi, B., Aghaee, M. (2012). Biplot analysis of drought tolerance indicators in bread wheat lanraces of Iran. International Journal of Agriculture and Crop Sciences, 4(5), 226-233.
  26. Farajzadeh Asl, M., Kashki, A., Shayan, S. (2009). Analysis of viability of irrigated wheat yield by climatic change approach (Khorasan Razavi). Quarterly J. Human Saience Teacher, 13(3), 256-266. (In Farsi).
  27. FAO. (2012). Food Insecurity in the World. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations: Rome, Italy.
  28. FAO. (2016). Agriculture and food insecurity risk management in Africa, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations: Rome, Italy.
  29. Gava, O., Bartolini, F., Brunori, G., Galli, F. (2014). Ustainability of local versus global bread supply chains: a literature review. (eds). Proceedings of Conference “Feeding the Planet and Greening Agriculture: Challenges and opportunities for the bio-economy.
  30. Gerontidis, D.V., C. Kosmas, B. Detsis, M. Marathianou, T. Zafirious and M. Tsara. (2001). The effect of moldboard plow on tillage erosion along a hill slope. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 56(2), 147-152.
  31. Ghosh, S., & Jintanapakanont, J. (2004). Identifying and assessing the critical risk factors in an underground rail project in Thailand: a factor analysis approach. International Journal of Project Management, 22(8), 633-643.
  32. Girdžiūtė, L. (2012). Risks in agriculture and opportunities of their integrated evaluation. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62, 783-790.
  33. Goulding, Ch.(2002).Grounded Theory: A practical guide for management, business and market researchaers. SAGE Publications, First published.
  34. Haji Sharafi, Gh. H., Shokohfar, A. (2009). Replacement of cane herbicides in order to reduce the use of chemical pesticides and optimal use of agricultural institutions in sugarcane farms of Khuzestan province. Journal of physiology of crops, 1(1). (In Farsi).
  35. Hanjra, M., Ejaz Qureshi, M. (2010). Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy 35, 365–377.
  36. Iranmanesh, H., Sheykh Sajadieh, M., Kaghazchi, M. (2012). Designing the Iran's wheat, flour and bread market development system in the world. Research project, faculty of engineering, university of Tehran, Research Center of Cereals, national project number 1389/56. (In Farsi).
  37. Jafarnejad, A., Ebrahimi, M., Abbaszadeh, M. A., Abtahi, M. (2014).  Risk Management in Supply Chain using Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relations. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 4(1), 77-89.
  38. Jaffee S., Siegel P., and Andrews C. (2008). Rapid agricultural supply chain risk assessment: a conceptual framework. Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion Paper 47, the World Bank.
  39. Jahanban, L., Lotfifar, A. (2011). Effect of effective microorganisms (EM) on the efficiency of chemical and organic fertilizers in forage corn cultivation. Journal of Plant Production Technology, 11(2), 42-52. (In Farsi).
  40.  Kahan, D. (2013). Managing risk in farming. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy.
  41. Karym Azadegan, H. (2006). The effect of fertilizer subsidy on its non-optimal consumption in wheat production. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 55, 121-133. (In Farsi).
  42. Kamaloldin, H., Dahanzadeh, B. (2014). Investigating the amount of water saving in irrigation water in Ahwaz city. Two quarterly Journal of Water Engineering,  Summer and spring. (In Farsi).
  43. Keshavarz, P., Moshiri, F., Tehrani, M. M., Balali M. R. (2015). Soil fertility integrated management strategies for wheat production in Iran. Journal of Land Management, 3(1), 62-72. (In Farsi).
  44. Kleindorfer, Paul R. and Germaine H. Saad. (2005). Managing Disruption Risks in Supply Chains. Production and Operations Management, 14 (1), pp. 53.
  45. Kochaki, A., Nasiri, M. (2008). Impact of climate change with increasing CO2 concentration on wheat yield in Iran and assessment of adaptation strategies. Journal of Iranian Agricultural Research, 6(1), 139-153. (In Farsi).
  46. Leat, P., Revoredo-Giha,C. (2013). Risk and resilience in agri-food supply chains: the case of the ASDA PorkLink supply chain in Scotland. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 18/2, 219–231.
  47. Lotfali Ayeneh, Gh., Asadi, H., Gooshe, M., Mosavifazl, M.H., Dehghani, A., Pourazar, R., Hamoleh Shalal, H. (2014). Agricultural and economic study of the effect of wheat rotation with some crops in southern Khuzestan. (eds). Proceedings of The First International Congress and the 13th National Congress on Agronomy and Plant Breeding, and the 3rd Conference of Seed Science and Technology. Seed and Plant Improvement Research Institute, Karaj, Iran. (In Farsi).
  48. Maddah, V., Soltani, A., Zeinali, E., Bannayan-Aval, M. (2015).Simulating Climate change Impacts on Wheat Production in Gorgan, Iran. Bulletin of Environment, Pharmacology and Life Sciences, 4(4), 58- 67.
  49. Mahbobi, M. R., Esmail Aval, M., Yaghoubi, J. (2011). Investigating the preventive and preventative factors of using new irrigation methods by farmers: The case of western Boshruyah city in South Khorasan. Journal of Water Management and Irrigation, 1(1), 87-98. (In Farsi)
  50. Maleksaeeidi, H., Karami, A. (2006). Grounded Theory Methodology. Phd course research method project. Shiraz University. (In Farsi).
  51. Malakootian, M., Dowlatshahi, SH., Malakootian, M. (2005). The Quality of the Manufactured Bread and Hygienic Conditions of Bakeries. Iranian Journal Environment Health Science Engineer, 2(2), 72-78.
  52. Manuj, I., Mentzer., J. T. (2008). Global Supply Chain Risk Management. Journal of Business Logistics, 29 (1), 133-155.
  53. Mohammadi, M. and Karimizadeh, R. (2012). Insight into heat tolerance and grain yield improvement in wheat in warm rainfed regions of Iran. Crop Breeding Journal, 2(1), 1-8.
  54. Mollasadeghi, V., Gharib Eshghi, A., Shahryari, R., Elyasi, S. (2013).  Evaluation of tolerant and susceptible bread wheat genotypes under drought stress conditions. International Journal of Farming and Allied Sciences, 2(24), 1159-1164.
  55. Moradi, M., Sadat, A., Khvazi, K., Naseri, R., Malaki, A., Mirzaie, A. (2011). The effect of phosphorus chemical and biological fertilizers on quantitative and qualitative characteristics of spring wheat. Scientific Journal of Ecophysiology of Crops and Weeds, 5(18), 51-66. (In Farsi).
  56. Mondani, F., Nasiri Mahalati, M., Kochaki, A. R. (2014). Modeling of Wheat Age Pest Damage on the Growth and Performance of Winter Wheat under Climatic Conditions. Plant Production Technology, 4(2), 60-75. (In Farsi).
  57.  Musa, S.N. (2012). Supply Chain Risk Management: Identification, Evaluation and Mitigation Techniques. Linköping Studies in Science and Technology, Dissertations, No. 1459.
  58. Naeimi, A., Najaflou, P., Sobhani, m.j. (2015). The role of education, extension and information on the development of agricultural biotechnology from the point of view of experts. Journal of Agricultural Education Administration Research, 33, 97-110. (In Farsi).
  59. Nassiri, M., Koocheki, A., Kamali, G. A., Shahandeh, H. (2006). Potential impact of climate change on rainfed wheat. production in Iran. Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science, 52(1), 113-124.
  60. Nazarzadeh Zaare, M., Dorani, K., Lavasani, M. (2011). Obstacles and Problems of Agriculture Extension Traning Courses from Farmers Points of View Participating in the Extension Traning Courses Dezful City. Research in Curriculum Planning, 8(1, 2) Continuous No. 28, 29, 1-13. (In Farsi).
  61. Noroozi, M., Jalalian, A., Auobi, Sh. A. Khademi, H. (2008). Investigating the relationship between wheat production and ground and characteristics in ardal region, Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari Province. Science and Technology of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 12(46). (In Farsi).
  62. Noroozi, A., & Shabazi, A. (2010). The role of extension on the development of organic agriculture in the country's villages. Rural development, 2(2), 2-22. (In Farsi).
  63. Noori, J., Abaspour, M., Torabifard, M.(2008). Assessment and management of environmental risks of an educational unit using the FMEA method. Environmental science and technology, 12(3). (In Farsi).
  64. Omidi, S., Eshraghi Samani, R., Poursaeed, A. R. (2014). Analysis the factors affecting management of wheat losses in Iran (Ilam Township). International Journal of Agronomy and Agricultural Research, 5(4), 7-11.
  65.  Opara, L. U. (2003). Traceability in agriculture and food supply chain: A review of basic concepts, technological implications, and future prospects. Food, Agriculture & Environment, 1(1), 101-106.
  66. Parhizkari, A., Mozafari, M. M., Khodadadi, M. H. (2014). Economic analysis of climate change effects on blue wheat yield in Shahrood watershed, Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Research, 18: 88-100. (In Farsi).
  67. Poladgar, M., Houshmand, A. R. 2013. Review of executive problems of drainage networks operation. (eds). Proceedings of 4th national conference on irrigation and drainage networks, Shahid Chamran university of Ahwaz, faculty of water engineering. (In Farsi).
  68. Punniyamoorthy, M., Thamaraiselvan, Thamaraiselvan, N., Manikandan, L. (2013). Assessment of supply chain risk: scale development and validation. Benchmarking: An International Journal, 20 (1), 79-105.
  69.  Rachmat Affriadi, A. (2011). Implementation of risk management framework in supply chain: A tale from a biofuel company in Indonesia, Manchester Business School working paper, No. 614.
  70. Rice, J.B., Caniato, F. (2003). Building a secure and resilient supply network. Supply Chain Management Review, 7 (5), 22-30.
  71. Rajabzadeh, F., Pazira, A., Mahdian, M. H. (2011). Investigating and designing an experimental model for saline and salinity soils in the middle part of Khuzestan province. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Research, 18(3). (In Farsi).
  72. Rahimian, M. H., Rousta, M. J., Mashkouh, M. A., Ghousheh, M., Shiran Tafti, M. (2012). Estimation of salinity of soil profile due to groundwater salinity in Azadegan plain. Journal of Soil Research (Soil and Water Sciences), 26(4). (In Farsi).
  73. Roco, L., & Engler, E. (2015). Farmers’ perception of climate change in mediterranean Chile. Reg Environ Change, 15, 867–879
  74. Roosta, K., Hosseini, J. F. A., Chezari, M., Hoseini, M. (2008). Investigating Effective Mechanisms of Risk Management for Wheat Production in Razavi Khorasan Province. Journal of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, 15(6). (In Farsi).
  75. Rostami, F., Shabanali Fami, H., Movahed Mohamadi, H., Ervani, H. (2006). Risk management of wheat production in Family exploitation system in Harsin County. Journal of Iran Agricultural Sciences, 2/37(1). (In Farsi).
  76. Shahnoushi Foroushani, N., Abolhasani, L., Dourandish, A., Taherpour, H., Nemat elahi, Z., Yousefzadeh, S. (2014). Investigating the effects of law of purposefulness of subsidies in the wheat, flour, and bread chains. Research project, Ferdowsi university of Mashhad, Research Center of Cereals, code: 7837-118991. (In Farsi).
  77. Shamabadi, Z.(2012). Measurement the wheat losses in harvesting_stage. International Journal of Agriculture and Crop Sciences, 4(23), 1797-1802.
  78. Salsali, M., Fakhr Movahedi, A., CHeraghi, M. A. (2017). Grounded Theory in Medical Sciences (Philosophy and Applied Principles).  Bashari publication and promotion. (In Farsi).
    1. Sharma, Sh & Pratap, R. (2013). A case study of risk prioritization using FMEA method. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 3(10).
  79. Sandoghi, A., Yousefi, A., Amini, A. (2016). Evaluation of knowledge, attitude and performance of cucumber and tomatoes greenhouse in healthy crop production in Isfahan. Science and technology of greenhouse crops, 7(27), 155-166. (In Farsi).
  80. Soofi Abadi, Gh. (2011). A Comparative study on effective process indicators on bread making by handling and mechanized method. Nashre Aftab publication, First Edition. (In Farsi).
  81. Tummala, R., and Schoenherr, T. (2011). Assessing and managing risks using the Supply Chain Risk Management Process (SCRMP). Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 16 (6), 474 – 483.
  82. Tsolakis, N. K., Keramydas, G. A., Toka, A. K., Aidonis, D. A, Iakovou, E. T. (2013). Agrifood supply chain management: A comprehensive hierarchical decision-making framework and a critical taxonomy. Biosystems Engineering Journal, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.biosystemseng. 10.014.
  83. Trading Servieces and Cereal Corporation of Four Region. (2016).wheat production in Khuzestan province. (In Farsi).
  84. Yaghoubi, F., Jami Alahmadi, M., Bakhshi, M. R., Siyari Zahan, M. H. (2014). Comparison of fertilizer and poison inputs in saffron and wheat production systems in Ghaenat city. Saffron Agriculture and Technology Journal, 2 (3), 115-125. (In Farsi).
  85.  Zarea, M.J. (2010). Conservation Tillage and Sustainable Agriculture in Semi-Arid Dryland Farming. In: Lichtfouse, E., (Eds.), Springer Press.
  86. Zecca, F., & Rastorgueva, N. (2014). Supply chain management and sustainability in agri-food system: Italian evidence. Journal of Nutritional Ecology and Food Research, 2(1), 20-28.
  87. Zhao, S., Yang, X. (2013). Food Safety Risk Assessment in whole food supply chain based on catastrophe model. Advance Journal of Food Science and Technology, 5(12), 1557-1560.
  88. Zand, A, M., Baghestani, A., Shimi, Sh., Faghyh, A. (2002). An analysis of herbicide pesticide management. Agricultural Education Publishing. (In Farsi).
  1. Francisa, K. Millsa J. and Bonner, A. (2008). Getting to Know a Stranger-Rural Nurses Experiences of Mentoring: A Grounded Theory. InternationalJournal of Nursing Studies, 45: 599-607, available at: www.sceincedirect.
  1. Karthick, M & Manikandan, V. (2014). FMEA based Quantification Analysis of Outbound Supplier Risk and its Resilience. Global Journal of Researches in Engineering, 14(1)
  1. Quinn, F. (2006). Risky business. Supply chain management review, 10 (4), 5-5.