تحلیل و ارزیابی ریسک‌های مرتبط با تولید گندم در زنجیره تأمین نان استان خوزستان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری ترویج کشاورزی، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

2 دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

3 استادیار دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه کشاورزی ومنابع طبیعی رامین خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

4 دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی رامین خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

هدف از این پژوهش، ارزیابی ریسک­های مرتبط با تولید گندم در زنجیره تأمین نان استان خوزستان است که در دو فاز انجام گرفته  است. به این منظور از روش  پژوهش ترکیبی- اکتشافی استفاده گردید که در فاز اول از تئوری­بنیانی برای شناسایی ریسک و در فاز دوم از پیمایش مقطعی برای ارزیابی ریسک مورد بهره برداری قرار گرفت. در فاز اول، از میان جامعه آماری، شامل کارشناسان و کشاورزان پیش‌رو در تولید گندم، 15 نفر به روش  نمونه­گیری هدفمند ترکیبی(بارز و موارد شناخته­شده) به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. ابزار جمع­آوری اطلاعات در این مرحله، مصاحبه نیمه­ساختارمند و مشاهده بوده است. در فاز دوم،  از میان جامعه آماری، شامل کشاورزان گندمکار،150 نفر به روش نمونه­گیری هدفمند بارز به عنوان نمونه انتخاب گردیدند. . ابزار جمع­آوری اطلاعات در این مرحله، چک­لیست بوده است. به منظور تحلیل داده­ها از تکنیک ارزیابی حالت‌های شکست و اثرات آن استفاده  شد. قابلیت اعتبار ریسک­های شناسایی شده و روایی چک­لیست­ها با نظر صاحب‌نظران و متخصصین مربوطه مورد تأیید قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از تئوری بنیانی در فاز اول، 12 مقوله ریسک، شناسایی شد و نتایج ارزیابی ریسک­ها نیز بیانگر آن بود که به ترتیب ریسک محیطی، ریسک ایمنی محصول و محیط زیست، ریسک تأمین نهاده­ها، ریسک فعالیت­های زراعی، ریسک زیرساخت­ها، ریسک فناوری، ریسک دسترسی به اطلاعات و آموزش­های ترویجی، ریسک مالی، ریسک زمانی، ریسک بازار، ریسک  پژوهش و توسعه، ریسک انسانی در اولویت­بندی ریسک­های مرتبط با تولید گندم قرار دارند. همچنین ریسک محیطی در زمره یکی از ریسک­های بسیار نیرومند، ریسک ایمنی محصول و محیط زیست به عنوان یکی از ریسک­های  نیرومند و ریسک­های بازار،  پژوهش و توسعه انسانی از جمله ریسک­های ضعیف ارزیابی شدند.

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