تحلیل و ارزیابی ریسک‌های مرتبط با تولید گندم در زنجیره تأمین نان استان خوزستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری ترویج کشاورزی، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

2 دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

3 استادیار دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه کشاورزی ومنابع طبیعی رامین خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

4 دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی رامین خوزستان، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

هدف از این پژوهش، ارزیابی ریسک­های مرتبط با تولید گندم در زنجیره تأمین نان استان خوزستان است که در دو فاز انجام گرفته  است. به این منظور از روش  پژوهش ترکیبی- اکتشافی استفاده گردید که در فاز اول از تئوری­بنیانی برای شناسایی ریسک و در فاز دوم از پیمایش مقطعی برای ارزیابی ریسک مورد بهره برداری قرار گرفت. در فاز اول، از میان جامعه آماری، شامل کارشناسان و کشاورزان پیش‌رو در تولید گندم، 15 نفر به روش  نمونه­گیری هدفمند ترکیبی(بارز و موارد شناخته­شده) به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. ابزار جمع­آوری اطلاعات در این مرحله، مصاحبه نیمه­ساختارمند و مشاهده بوده است. در فاز دوم،  از میان جامعه آماری، شامل کشاورزان گندمکار،150 نفر به روش نمونه­گیری هدفمند بارز به عنوان نمونه انتخاب گردیدند. . ابزار جمع­آوری اطلاعات در این مرحله، چک­لیست بوده است. به منظور تحلیل داده­ها از تکنیک ارزیابی حالت‌های شکست و اثرات آن استفاده  شد. قابلیت اعتبار ریسک­های شناسایی شده و روایی چک­لیست­ها با نظر صاحب‌نظران و متخصصین مربوطه مورد تأیید قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از تئوری بنیانی در فاز اول، 12 مقوله ریسک، شناسایی شد و نتایج ارزیابی ریسک­ها نیز بیانگر آن بود که به ترتیب ریسک محیطی، ریسک ایمنی محصول و محیط زیست، ریسک تأمین نهاده­ها، ریسک فعالیت­های زراعی، ریسک زیرساخت­ها، ریسک فناوری، ریسک دسترسی به اطلاعات و آموزش­های ترویجی، ریسک مالی، ریسک زمانی، ریسک بازار، ریسک  پژوهش و توسعه، ریسک انسانی در اولویت­بندی ریسک­های مرتبط با تولید گندم قرار دارند. همچنین ریسک محیطی در زمره یکی از ریسک­های بسیار نیرومند، ریسک ایمنی محصول و محیط زیست به عنوان یکی از ریسک­های  نیرومند و ریسک­های بازار،  پژوهش و توسعه انسانی از جمله ریسک­های ضعیف ارزیابی شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Wheat Production Related Risks in The Bread Supply Chain of Khuzestan Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Azar Hasheminezhad 1
  • Mansour Ghanian 2
  • Abass Abdeshahi 3
  • Bahman Khosravipour 4
1 PhD. Student, Agricultural Extension, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, University of Khouzestan, Ahvaz, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Agricultural Extension, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, University of Khouzestan, Ahvaz, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Extension, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, University of Khouzestan, Ahvaz, Iran
4 Associate Professor, Agricultural Extension, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, University of Khouzestan, Ahvaz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study was to assess the risks associated with wheat production in the bread supply chain of Khuzestan Province, which was carried out in two phases. For this purpose, the exploratory mixed method was used which in the first phase the grounded theory was used for risk identification and in the second phase the cross-sectional survey was used to risk assessment. In the first phase, the population was elites and progressive farmers in wheat production which among them 15 people was selected through a typical case purposeful sampling and revelatory case purposeful sampling method as the sample of the study. Semi-structured interviews and observation were used as the research instrument. In the second phase, the population was wheat producers of the Khuzestan province which among them 150 people was selected through a typical case purposeful sampling as the sample. Data collected using a checklist. The data were assessed based on Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Reliability of the recognized risks and validity of checklist were confirmed by a panel of experts. Based on the results of Grounded theory 12 risks categories identified. The results of risk assessment were showed environmental risk, food safety risk, the supply of inputs risk, agricultural activities risk, infrastructure risk, technology risk, access to information and extension education risk, financial risk, delay risk, market risk, research and development risk, human risk. the environmental risk was the very strong risk, food safety risk was a strong risk and market risk, research and development risk, human risk were weakness risks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • risk assessment
  • Wheat
  • bread supply chain
  • environmental risk
  • production risk

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 49، شماره 3
مهر 1397
صفحه 439-459

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