بررسی آثار حذف سیاست‌های حمایتی دولت در بازار گندم ایران؛ رویکرد تعادل بازار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

گندم به‌عنوان یک محصول راهبردی، از نظر میزان تولید و اختصاص سطوح زیر کشت، مهم‌ترین محصول کشاورزی در سراسر دنیا محسوب می‌شود و نقشی استراتژیک در عرصه‌ی سیاسی و اقتصادی کشورها ایفا می‌نماید. لذا هدایت عرضه و تقاضای این محصول و تنظیم بازار آن بر اساس منافع کارگزاران اقتصادی، امری اجتناب‌ناپذیر خواهد بود. در این راستا، مطالعه‌ی حاضر با استفاده از مدل تعادل فضایی قیمت‌ها، به بررسی آثار سیاست‌های حمایتی دولت در بازار این محصول و مقایسه‌ی این سیاست‌ها با شرایط آزادسازی بازار در ایران پرداخته است. نتایج نشان داد که در سال زراعی 1393-1392 با لحاظ نمودن توأمان سیاست قیمت تضمینی و قیمت سقف، در کل کشور به میزان 3165 هزار تن مازاد تقاضا برای گندم وجود خواهد داشت. اما با اتخاذ سیاست آزادسازی، مقدار تقاضای کل برابر 9/13 درصد و مقدار عرضه برابر 6/1 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. همچنین اتخاذ رویکرد آزادسازی موجب افزایش 4/105 درصدی قیمت تقاضا و کاهش 9/9 درصدی قیمت عرضه می‌گردد. لذا می‌توان دریافت که اتخاذ سیاست آزادسازی در بازار گندم، بیش از آنکه در جهت منافع عرضه‌کنندگان این محصول عمل نماید، به زیان تقاضاکنندگان در این بازار خواهد بود و لذا پیشنهاد می شود همگام با آزاد سازی بازار گندم تدابیری همانند پرداخت جبرانی برای مصرف­کنندگان در نظر گرفته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the impacts of removing government protection policies in the Iranian wheat market using market equilibrium approach

نویسنده [English]

  • Seyed Habibollah Mosavi
چکیده [English]

 
Wheat as a strategic product, in terms of production and cultivation, is the most important crops in worldwide and plays an important role in the political and economic arena. According to this issue it is necessary to adjust market by the producers, consumer and national welfares. This study investigated the effect of government support policies in the wheat market by using the spatial equilibrium model and compared the result with liberalized market. Results revealed that imposing both consumer and producer support policies would be accompanied by 3165 tones excess demand in the base year (2013-2014). In the liberalized market, total quantity demanded and supplied would decrease equal to 13.9 and 1.6 percent. Also liberalizing policy would increase consumer price (105.4 percent) and decrease producer price (9.9 percent). Therefore, liberalizing wheat market worse off consumer and producer gain would be negligible. Finally, compensation payment as a complementary policy would be pursue in the short run for the consumers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • spatial equilibrium
  • general maximum entropy
  • wheat market
  • welfare evaluating

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 48، شماره 2
تیر 1396
صفحه 241-256

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