بررسی تأثیر ضریب مکانیزاسیون بر بهره‌وری در بخش کشاورزی ایران (کاربرد مقایسه‌ای ARDL و الگوریتم ژنتیک)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار/ دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد/ دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

3 دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

4 دانشچوی دکتری دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

منابع محدود در بخش کشاورزی، به­کارگیری فناوری مناسب جهت استفاده بهینه از منابع کمیاب با هدف تأمین امنیت غذایی را به یک ضرورت تبدیل کرده است، به­طوری که در برنامه پنجم توسعه مقرر گردیده یک سوم رشد اقتصادی در کشور از طریق رشد بهره­وری حاصل گردد. دستیابی به این هدف برای بخش کشاورزی در گرو توسعه مکانیزاسیون است. در همین راستا، مطالعه حاضر به بررسی تأثیر توسعه مکانیزاسیون بر رشد بهره­وری در بخش کشاورزی پرداخته ­است. لذا، ابتدا با محاسبه شاخص بهره­وری مالم­کوئیست، شاخص بهره­وری کل عوامل تولید در بخش کشاورزی برای دوره زمانی 1391- 1368 مورد بررسی و سپس با برآورد الگوی اقتصادسنجی و همچنین، الگوریتم ژنتیک عوامل مؤثر برآن مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. نتایج نشان داد که الگوریتم ژنتیک ابزار قدرتمندی برای برآورد این الگوهاست. همچنین، نتایج هر دو رهیافت نشان می­دهد که ضریب مکانیزاسیون و تسهیلات اعتباری و آموزشی، ترویجی بخش کشاورزی اثرات مثبتی بر رشد بهره­وری داشته است. ضریب برآورده شده برای ضریب مکانیزاسیون در بلندمدت در روش ARDL برابر با 129/0 و در روش الگوریتم ژنتیک برابر 098/0 می­باشد که نشان از تأثیر نسبتاً زیاد این متغیر بر بهره­وری بخش کشاورزی دارد. همچنین، تغییر علامت متغیرهای شاخص قیمت و درجه باز بودن بخش از منفی به مثبت در کوتاه مدت به سمت بلندمدت بر لزوم سیاست­های حمایتی صحیح از کشاورزان، جهت توانایی رقابت و تطبیق با شرایط اقتصادی، تاکید دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigate the Effect of Mechanization on Productivity of the Iranian Agricultural Sector (Use a Comparative Approach ARDL and Genetic Algorithms)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Reza Zare Mehrjerdi 1
  • Sasan esfandiari 2
  • Mojtaba Nikzad 4
1 Associate Professor / University of Kerman martyr
2 Graduate student / martyr Bahonar University
3
4 PhD. Student University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

limited resources of the agricultural sector, the use of appropriate technology for optimal use of scarce resources to ensure food security has become a necessity. So, at the fifth development pla, it is stated that a third country's economic growthbe achieve through productivity growth. To achieve this goal, for the agricultural sector, is depended on the mechanization. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of mechanization on productivity growth of the agricultural sector. So first with Malmquist productivity index, index of total factor productivity of the agricultural sector for the period 1391- 1368 reviewed and then, the econometric model estimated and genetic algorithm related factors evaluated. The results showed that GA is a powerful tool for estimating the models. The results of both approaches indicate that the rate of mechanization and credit facilities and education, promoting the agricultural sector has a positive effect on productivity growth. The estimated coefficient for mechanization ratio in ARDL is 0/129 and in Genetic Algorithms 0/098 the long run which shows the variable ineffective on the productivity of the agricultural sector is relatively high. The price index and the degree of openness the variable changes sign from negative to positive in the short term to the long term the need for correct support policies for farmers to compete and adapt to economic conditions, insists.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Genetic Algorithm (GA)
  • Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)
  • mechanization Index
  • Productivity of Agricultural Sector

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 48، شماره 1
خرداد 1396
صفحه 9-22

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