تحلیل ساختار واردات محصولات کشاورزی ایران با تاکید بر بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز (کاربرد روش EGARCH و VECM)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی/ موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصادکشاورزی و توسعه روستایی

2 دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

افزایش تقاضای روز افزون کالاهای کشاورزی و همچنین مدیریت ضعیف استفاده از منابع موجود در کشور سبب شده تا به منظور برطرف ساختن نیاز داخلی، بخش عظیمی از درآمدهای کشور صرف واردات این نوع کالاها شود. لذا به منظور مدیریت هر چه بهتر واردات محصولات کشاورزی و شناسای ابزارهای لازم به منظور کنترل واردات بی‌رویه برخی از این محصولات، در مطالعه حاضر، الگوی واردات محصولات کشاورزی ایران (گندم، جو، ذرت، شکر، برنج، گوشت مرغ، گوشت قرمز، تخم مرغ و دانه‌های روغنی) برای دوره‌ی زمانی 90-1360 مورد تحلیل و ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که سیاست‌های قیمتی در واردات محصولات تخم مرغ، گوشت مرغ و گندم، به دلیل اثرگذاری بیشتر، از اهمیت بالاتری برخوردار است. همچنین متغیر تعرفه وارداتی در محصولات گندم، گوشت قرمز و جو، به عنوان ابزاری از سیاست‌های تجاری حائز اهمیت بیشتری می‎باشد. در نهایت بررسی متغیر نوسانات نرخ ارز نیز نشان می‌دهد که اثر گذاری آن در همه محصولات مثبت منفی است. لذا پیشنهاد می‎شود به منظور مدیریت کاراتر بر واردات محصولات کشاورزی، حمایت از تولیدکنندگان داخلی و برقراری امنیت غذایی به واسطه‌ی موجود بودن غذا در کشور، از ابزارهای سیاستی مناسب همگام با سیاست‌های تجاری فعلی، استفاده شود.

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