تحلیل وضعیت اقتصادی کشاورزان شرق حوضه رودخانه زاینده‌رود تحت شرایط خشکسالی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجو/دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 استاد/دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 استاد/دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

بخش کشاورزی بزرگ­ترین مصرف کننده منابع آبی در نواحی خشک و نیمه خشک است، لذا، محدودیت منابع آب بیشترین تأثیر را بر این بخش می­گذارد. خشکسالی به­عنوان یکی از مهم­ترین عوامل بوجود آورنده بحران آب در حوضه رودخانه زاینده­رود، تاثیر عمیقی بر بخش کشاورزی داشته است. در همین راستا، این مطالعه به ارزیابی اثرات خشکسالی بر سطح زیر کشت و سود کشاورزان در شرق حوضه زاینده­رود با استفاده از شاخص نمایه استاندارد بارش (SPI) و تحلیل هزینه فایده پرداخته (CBA) است. داده‌های مورد نیاز با استفاده از تکمیل پرسشنامه و مصاحبه رو در رو با 140 کشاورز در منطقه در سال زراعی 91-90 و سازمان هواشناسی کل کشور بدست آمد. ابتدا با استفاده از دو ایستگاه باران­سنجی اصفهان و سد چادگان طی سال­های 90-59 و شاخص SPI ، به تعیین سناریوهای اقلیمی پرداخته شده است. سپس، اثرات هر یک از سناریوهای ترسالی، نرمال و خشکسالی بر دبی، سطح زیر کشت و سود کشاورزان به­دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد که محصولات گندم، برنج و گلرنگ که وابستگی بالایی به  مصرف آب کانال دارند به ترتیب کاهش سطح زیر کشتی به میزان 68 درصد، 92 درصد و  51 درصد دارند. به­علاوه، کاهش سود این محصولات به ترتیب معادل 13858، 520 و 6103 میلیون تومان است که بایستی با افزایش بهره­وری و افزایش راندمان آبیاری با استفاده از روش­هایی مانند لوله­گذاری در مزارع که هزینه و ریسک پایین­تری نسبت به آبیاری بارانی  برای کشاورزان دارد، اثرات کاهش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Farmers Economic Status in Drought Conditions, the East of Zayandeh-Rud River Basin

چکیده [English]

The agriculture sector is the largest water consumer in arid and semi-arid areas. So water scarcity has an important effect on this section. Drought as one of the most important factors in making crisis in Zayanderud river basin (ZRB) has a deep effect on the agriculture sector. This study evaluates the drought effects on irrigation land and farmers profit on the east of ZRB by using SPI and CBA. The required data is collected by questionnaire and face-to-face interview with 140 farmers in the east of ZRB in 2013. At first we determined climatic scenarios by using Esfahan and Chadegan stations and SPI index during 1970-2012. After that the effects of wet, normal and dry scenarios are shown on stream flow and irrigation land. The results show that wheat, rice and safflower that depend highly on river, decrease on land area sequentially in scale of 68%, 92% and 51%. In addition the decrease of profit of these products are sequentially equal to 13858, 520 and 6103 million Tomans, that should use increasing the productivity and irrigation efficiency utilizing ways such as farm tubing- that has lower cost and risk in relation to rain irrigation for farmers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought
  • zayandeh-rud river
  • SPI

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 47، شماره 2
شهریور 1395
صفحه 335-342

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