اثرات رفاهی کاهش تعرفه گمرکی واردات چوب به ایران: کاربرد سیستم تقاضای تقریباً ایده‌آل درجه دو

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی

2 استاد بخش

چکیده

با توجه به افزایش تقاضا برای محصولات چوبی در کشور و محدودیت منابع داخلی، واردات چوب و فرآورده‌های چوبی از اهمیت به­سزایی برخوردار می‌باشد. از جمله سیاست‌های داخلی که در بازار چوب وارداتی مشهود است، اعمال موانع تعرفه‌ای و غیر تعرفه‌ای است. اطلاع از واکنش تقاضاکنندگان در مقابل تغییرات قیمت می‌تواند در تعیین و اعمال میزان موانع یاد شده و یا کاهش آن‌ها حایز اهمیت باشد. لذا، در این مطالعه ضمن برآورد سیستم تقاضای تقریباً ایده‌آل درجه دو برای چوب خام، واسطه و نهایی وارداتی و چوب خام داخلی طی سال‌های1390-1361، شاخص رفاهی تغییرات جبرانی ناشی از کاهش تعرفه گمرکی انواع چوب محاسبه شده است. نتایج مطالعه بیانگر وجود رابطه جانشینی بین چوب‌های وارداتی است. همچنین، برآورد شاخص تغییرات جبرانی نشان می‌دهد که کاهش تعرفه انواع چوب‌های وارداتی منجر به افزایش رفاه گروه تقاضاکنندگان چوب می‌گردد و تغییرات مخارج تقاضاکنندگان چوب در نتیجه کاهش تعرفه گمرکی چوب واسطه وارداتی، بیشتر از دو گروه دیگر می‌باشد. با توجه به افزایش رفاه تقاضاکنندگان چوب که مجموع کارگزاران اقتصادی تقاضاکننده چوب وارداتی و داخلی می‌باشند، شاید بتوان توصیه نمود، تعرفه واردات چوب بر اساس یک برنامه زمانی کاهش یابد. در این برنامه زمانی لازم است مواردی مانند روابط بین انواع چوب و امکان تطابق صنایع وابسته مورد توجه قرار گیرد. همچنین، پیشنهاد می‌شود مدیریت واحدی بر هر دو گروه از چوب حاکم باشد تا آثار سیاست‌های اتخاذ شده در مجموع بازار چوب مورد توجه قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


  1. Adeli, K. (2012). Study of wood market and timber harvest level planning based on the principle of sustainable development in Iran. Phd thesis. Department of natural resources of sari. (In Farsi)
  2. Arabatizis, G. & Klonaris, S. (2009). An analysis of Greek wood and wood product imports: Evidence from the linear quadratic AIDS. Forest Policy and Economics. 11: 266-270.
  3. Attanasio, O., DiMaro, V., Lechene, V., & Phillips, D. (2009). The welfare consequence of increases in food prices in rural Mexico and Colombia. Mimeo, UCL.
  4. Bakhshoodeh, M. & Akbari, A. (1999). Import Demand Commodities to IRAN. Application of an Almost Ideal Demand System. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Science, 30(1). 103-110. (In Farsi)
  5. Banks, J., Blundell, R. & Lewbel, A. (1997). Quadratic Engel curves and consumer demand. Review of Economics and Statistics. 79: 527-539.
  6. Behboodi, D. & Hekmati Farid, S. (2011). Welfare Effect Energy Subsidy Reform on Urban Households. Quarterly Energy Economic Review. 33: 31-51.
  7. Brannlund, R., & Nordstrom, J. (2004). Carbon Tax Simulations Using a Household Demand Model. European Economic. 48: 211 –233.
  8. Champers, R. (1988). Applied Production Analysis: a Dual Approach. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, USA, 327 pp.
  9. Chipman, J.S. & Moore, J.C. (1980). Compensating variation, Consumer’s Surplas, and Welfare.  The American Economic Review. 70: 933-949.
  10. Christensen, L.R., Jorgensen, D.W. & Lau. L.J. (1975). Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions. American Economic Review, (65): 367-83.
  11. Cranfield, J. (2007). The Impact of Food Price Inflation on Consumer Welfare: Application of a Rank Four Demand System. International Food Economy Research Group, University of Guelph.
  12. Cranfield, J., &  Haq,  Z. (2010). What Impact has Food Price Inflation Had on Consumer Welfare: A Global Analysis.  2010 Conference (54th), February 10-12, 2010, Adelaide, Australia (No. 58894). Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  13. Davoodi, P. & Salem , A.A. (2007). The Effect of Gasoline Prices on Household Welfare in Different Income Decline. Journal of Economic. 23: 15-48.
  14. Deaton, A. (1988). Quality, Quantity, and Spatial Variation of Price. American Economic Review, (78): 418-30.
  15. Deaton, A., & Muellbauer, J. (1980). An almost ideal demand System. American Economic Review, 70: 312-326.
  16. Fallahi, F., Mohammadzadeh, P. & Hekmati Farid, S. (2013). The Welfare Effects on Price Changes in the Main Commodity Group in IRAN. Economic Research. 48(2): 131-150.
  17. FAO. (2012). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
  18. Friedman, J., & Levinsohn, J. (2002). The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia’s Financial Crisis on Household: A “Rapid Response” methodology. The World Bank Economic Review. 16: 397-423.
    1. Gohin, A. (2005). Decomposing welfare effects of CGE models: an exact, superlative, path independent, second order approximation. 8th Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Lübeck, Germany.
  19. Gorman, W.M. (1981). Apossible procedure for analyzing quality differentials in the egg market. Review of Economic Studies, 47: 834-856.
  20. Hojbar Kiani, K., Hajiha, F., Mazid, M. & Farahani, A. (2012). Estimating Budget Credit of Target – Oriented Protective Policy Execution in Meeting Food Security. Journal of Management and Budget. 17(2): 65-95.
  21. Jing, X., Mittelhammer, R. & Heckelei, T. (2004). A QUAIDS Model of  Japanese Meat Demand. American Agricultural Economics Association, Denver, Colorado, USA.
    1. Johansson, P.O. (1993). Cost-Benefit Analysis of Environmental Changes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, USA.  232 pp.
  22. Khan, S.M. (1975). The Structure and Behavior of Imports of Venezuela. Review of Economics and Statistics. 57: 24-221.
  23. Khorami Moghaddam, S. & Bakhshoodeh, M. (2007). Economic appraisal of timberwork in Gilan province. The 6th Iranian conference on agricultural economics. Mahhad, 1: 189-196. (In Farsi).
  24. Khosravinejhad, A.A. (2010). Measuring the Welfare Effects of Subsidies on Basic Commodities Urban Households in IRAN. Business Research. 50: 1-31. (In Farsi)
  25. Kohli, U. (2004). Real GDP, Real Domestic Income, and terms of trade change. Journal of International Economics. 62: 83-108.
  26. Lee, J.H., Koo, W.W. & Krause, M.A. (1994). Japanese wheat import demand. Agricultural Economics Report No. 317, Fargo, North Dakota State University, 22 pp.
  27. Mantel, K. (1973). Holzmarktlehre, Verlag J. Neumann–Neudamn Melsungen. Berlin. Basel. Wien. 700 pp.
  28. Matsuda, T. (2006). Linear Approximations to the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. Empirical Economics. 31: 663-675.
  29. Mckenzie, G., & Pearce, I. (1976). Exact Measures of Welfare and the Cost of  Living. The Review of Economics Studies. 43: 465-468.
    1. Minot, N. & Goletti, F. (2000). Rice Market Liberalization and Poverty in Viet Nam. Research Report 114. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., USA, 107 pp.
  30. Mohammadi, H. & Soltani, Gh. (1999). Estimation of import Demand Function for Wheat and Rice in IRAN: Application of SDAIDS Model. Institute for Planning and Agricultural Economics. 403-435.
  31. Njonou, R.Y., De Frahan, B.H. & Surry, Y. (2002). Testing Separability for Common Wheat Qualities in French Import Demand Market Using Aids and Rotterdam Demand Models. Xth EAAE Congress. Zaragoza. Spain.
  32. Ochmann, R. (2010). Distributional and Welfare Effects of Germany's year 2000 Tax Reform. The Context of Savings and Portfolio Choice. Empirical Economics. 1: 1-31.
  33. Rafighi, A., Amiri, S., Enayati, A.A. & Faezipour, M.M. (2006). A Research on the Existing Obstacles in the way of Developing Paper Products, Supply and Demand and the Guidelines to Solving the Problem.  Iranian Journal of Natural Resource, 58(4):  199-211. (In Farsi)
  34. Ranjbar, H. & Merrikh, S. (2010). An investigation of the composition of Iran’s import demand : capital, intermediate and consumer goods during 1978-2008. Journal of economic research. 35(2): 75-88. (In Farsi)
  35. Shamsian, M. (2009). Survey of the import and export of wood and wood products in recent years and optimize and consumption pattern reform. First National Conference consumption pattern reform based on Natural Resources, agricultural and veterinary. Zabol. 1: 1-18. (In Farsi)
  36. Shoeibi, Sh., Heshmatol Vaezin, S.M., Amiri, S. & Shamekhi, T. (2010). Impact of Wood Import Tariff on Illegal Wood Logging in Northern Caspian Forest. Iranian Journal of Forest. 2(1): 13-24. (In Farsi)
  37. Sori, D. & Mashayekh Ahangarani, P. (1998). Estimating Systems of Equations with Respect to the Role of Family and Social Factors. Journal of Business.1:  1-6.
  38. Stone, J. (1954). Linear Expenditure Systems and Demand Analysis—An Application to the Pattern of British, Demand, Economic Journal. (64): 511- 27
  39. Tayebi, S.K. & Ranjbar, H. (2004). Investigate the Structure of Import Demand: Application of the Almost Ideal Demand System Model (AIDS) in the period 1978-2002. Journal of Economic Research. 6(21): 1-21.
  40. Tefera, N. (2012). Welfare Impacts of Rising Food Prices in Rural Ethiopia: Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System Approach. Selected paper prepared for presentation at the international association of agricultural economists (IAAE( triennial conference, foz do lguacu. Brazil.
  41. Theil, H. (1965). The Information Approach to Demand Analysis, Econometrica, (33): 67-87.

Tiezzi , S. (2005). The Welfare Effect and the Distributive Impact of Carbon Taxation on Italian Households. Energy Policy. 33: 1597-1612.