برآورد ارزش اقتصادی تفرجگاه‌های طبیعی با استفاده از رویکرد هزینه سفر ( مورد مطالعه: بوستان فاتح)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

چکیده

پارک­های شهری ارزش­های تفرجگاهی مهمی برای گذراندن اوقات فراغت مردم دارند. پارک فاتح در مرکز استان البرز قرار دارد و ارائه­دهندة سطحی از خدمات کیفی برای مردم محسوب می­شود، اما ارزیابی اقتصادی این خدمات با معیارهای عادی بسیار دشوار است و به‌طور عمده با لحاظ‌کردن برخی شاخص­ها، برآورد ارزش اقتصادی آن­ها انجام می­گیرد. در مطالعة حاضر، به‌منظور دستیابی به هدف مذکور، با تکمیل سیصد پرسشنامة کلاوسون در زمان حداکثر گردشگری (تابستان 92) در قالب روش هزینة ­سفر (TCM)، ارزش­گذاری، بررسی و تجزیه و تحلیل منطقة مورد مطالعه انجام گرفت. نتایج بیانگر آن است که ارزش تفرجگاهی باغ فاتح با تخمین تقاضای مکان تفریحی و محاسبة مازاد رفاه مصرف­کننده، معادل 138750000 ریال به‌طور سالانه است که سیاستگذاران و تصمیم­گیرندگان با توجه به این امر می­توانند به حمایت از پارک­های شهری توجه کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating agricultural production risk (Case study: Gorgan county)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Iraj Saleh 1
  • Mehdi Bastani 2
  • Samaneh Abedi 3
1 Associate Professor Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran
2 MSc. Student, Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Economics, University of Sary, Iran
چکیده [English]

Agriculture sector has had a significant grow thing role in the Iran, but growth and development in this sector is not possible without a suitable risk management. This study has tried to predict and measure the risk from changing weather condition on agriculture products of Gorgan County using Mont Carlo Stimulation as one of the powerful tools on risk analysis. The results showed that the highest level of production risk is for the crop such as barley, soya and wheat and the least level of the risk is for the crops such as bean, clover and pea, respectively. To sum up, the research results indicated a significant effect of production risk in this area and therefore managers and policy makers need to notice it.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • agriculture productions
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Gorgan county
  • Risk Management

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