تدوین اولویت های صادراتی کشمش ایران در بازار جهانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

2 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

3 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

4 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

کشمش یکی از مهم‌ترین محصولات ارزآور کشاورزی ایران است و ایران پس از کشورهای ترکیه و آمریکا سومین صادرکنندۀ کشمش جهان است. در این مقاله، با استفاده از شاخص‌های مزیت نسبی صادراتی، مزیت وارداتی، نسبت­های تمرکز و هرفیندال- هیرشمن، به بررسی وضعیت تجاری و ساختار بازار صادراتی و وارداتی محصول کشمش در جهان در دورۀ زمانی 2011-2001 پرداخته می‌شود. براساس نتایج، ساختار بازار صادراتی در این دوره انحصار چندجانبة بسته بود، اما در سال 2011 نسبت به 2001 رقابتی­تر شد. ساختار بازار وارداتی با نوسان همراه بود، به‌طوری‌که در بعضی سال­ها از انحصار چندجانبه به انحصار چندجانبۀ باز گرایش یافت. با وجود رقابت­پذیری صادراتی کشمش ایران در این دوره، رشد آن 8/6- درصد بود، در‌حالی­که کشورهای آمریکا و شیلی رشدی مثبت داشتند. همچنین، بین مزیت صادراتی ایران و کشورهای رقیب همبستگی وجود ندارد. نتایج همبستگی مزیت صادراتی ایران و رقبا با مزیت وارداتی واردکنندگان برتر نشان داد که با افزایش مزیت وارداتی کانادا مزیت صادراتی ایران افزایش می­یابد. گفتنی است چنین رابطه­ای بین مزیت وارداتی کانادا و مزیت صادراتی ترکیه و آمریکا نیز وجود دارد که مهم‌ترین رقبای ایران در توسعۀ بازار در این کشور محسوب می­شوند. براساس نتایج، پیشنهاد می­شود ایران با استفاده از عوامل بازاریابی و سیاست­های تولیدی و تجاری مناسب در پی حفظ و توسعۀ سهم صادراتی خود در بازارهای هدف قدیمی و جدید باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Formulate priorities of raisin exports Iran in the world market

نویسندگان [English]

  • Milad Aminizadeh 1
  • Hamed Rafiee 2
  • Andisheh Riahi 3
  • Razie Shangayi 1
  • Elham Mehrparvar Hosseini 4
1 Master Students , Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran
2 Assistance Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Master, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran
4 PhD Students and Assistance Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Raisin is one of the most important agricultural products in Iran. Iran after the Turkey and America countries is the third largest exporter of raisin in world. Using the indices of export advantage, import advantage, concentration ratios and the Herfindahl-Hirschman, have been analyzed to check the state trade and market structure of export and import of raisin product in the world during 2001-2011. Results indicate that the structure of export markets have been Monopoly Multilateral Closed in the period,but it has become more competitive in 2011 than in 2001. Import market structure has been with fluctuation, so that in some years it opens multilateral monopoly and has become more competitive. Based on the results obtained observed Iran's raisin has export advantage in this period. Another noteworthy is the negative growth of Iran's export advantage (-6.8%),while America and Chile have positive growth. Correlation results in Iran's export advantage to competitors show that there is no correlation between Iran and rival nations. The correlation results of export advantage of Iran and competitors with import advantage of the top superior importers showed that with enhancement of Canada's import advantage increases Iran's export advantage. It is noteworthy, raisins export advantage of Turkey and America has positive correlation with import advantage of Canada that is serious rivals for Iran in market development in Canada. Also, Iran with Russia and Belgium has negative correlation that indicative weaken the Iran competitive power is in the markets these countries. According to results of this study, it is suggested,Iran with use of agents marketing and appropriate policies of price and trade, his export share kept in target markets and follow to find new markets to development export share of Iran’s raisins in world.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • export advantage
  • export market structure
  • import advantage
  • import market structure
  • raisins

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