بررسی آثار ناپایداری و نوسانات تجاری کشاورزی بر رشد بخش کشاورزی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان

چکیده

      با توجه به اهمیت گسترش صادرات غیر نفتی در پیشرفت و توسعة اقتصادی کشورها، در این مطالعه اثر بی‌ثباتی صادرات بخش کشاورزی بر تولید این بخش برای دورة 1353-1386 بررسی شد. همچنین، منابع بی‌ثباتی ارزش صادرات محصولات کشاورزی برای دورة 1353-1390 با استفاده از شاخص بی‌ثباتی کوپاک تعیین شد. نتایج نشان داد تأثیر بی‌ثباتی صادرات بر تولید بخش کشاورزی منفی و اثر متغیرهای صادرات، واردات، سرمایه و نرخ ارز واقعی مثبت و معنی‌دار و تأثیر نیروی کار منفی و معنی‌دار است. تجزیة منابع بی‌ثباتی نیز نشان داد زیر‌بخش‌های باغداری، زراعت، دامداری و شیلات به‌ترتیب بیشترین تأثیر را بر نوسان صادرات بخش کشاورزی دارند. در زیربخش زراعت، محصولات پیاز، گوجه‌فرنگی، ادویه‌جات، انواع‌ دانه‌های ‌روغنی، منسوجات و شکر و در زیربخش باغبانی انواع بادام، مرکبات، خرما، فندق و پسته و در زیربخش دامداری، انواع دام زنده، پوست و پشم درجة بالای رقابت‌پذیری را در بازار‌های جهانی دارند.

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