بررسی اثر سیاست‌های حمایتی بر سطح زیرکشت پنبه در استان گلستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

2 کارشناس ‌ارشد اقتصادکشاورزی دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

پنبه از گذشته تا به حال یکی از کالاهای اساسی و راهبردی در ایران است. استان گلستان در سال‌های گذشته بخش عظیمی از پنبة مورد نیاز کشور را تأمین کرد و به یکی از قطب‌های اصلی کشت این محصول تبدیل شد. در مطالعة حاضر، اثر سیاست‌های حمایتی بر عرضة پنبة استان گلستان با استفاده از متغیر نسبت شاخص حمایت از تولیدکنندة پنبه به محصولات رقیب آن به‌عنوان متغیر نشان‌دهندة اثر سیاست‌ها و حمایت‌های دولتی بررسی شد که این کار از طریق برآورد معادلات واکنش سطح زیرکشت پنبة آبی و دیم در قالب الگوی تعدیل جزئی نرلاو صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان می‌دهد اثر مثبت متغیر نسبت شاخص حمایت از تولیدکنندة پنبه به محصولات رقیب آن در هر دو معادلة سطح زیرکشت آبی و دیم پنبه معنی‌دار بود. کشش عرضة این متغیر در مدل پنبة آبی در کوتاه‌مدت 12/0 درصد و در بلند‌مدت 27/0 درصد و در مدل واکنش عرضة پنبة دیم نیز مقدار کشش عرضة این متغیر در کوتاه‌مدت 16/0 درصد و در بلند‌مدت 26/0 درصد است. پیشنهاد می‌شود علاوه‌بر افزایش سودآوری نسبی پنبه نسبت به رقبای آن و کاهش واردات بدون برنامه، افزایش حمایت‌های قیمتی و غیر قیمتی از پنبه مانند قیمت تضمینی به‌منظور ایجاد انگیزه در کشاورزان برای افزایش عرضة این محصول صورت پذیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the effect of supportive policies on cotton acreage in Golestan Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Safdar Hosseini 1
  • Marzieh Aminravan 2
1 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Iran
2 MSc. of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

From the past cotton has been introduced as one of the basic and strategic goods in Iran. Golestan province, during the past years has provided a large part of the nation's cotton requirement and has become one of the main poles of cultivation of this product. In this paper, the effects of support policies on Golestan's cotton supply has been investigated by using variable of producer support estimate of cotton to competing products and estimating irrigated and dryland acreage response equations through Nerlove's partial adjustment model. The results shows that the positive effect of producer support estimate of cotton to its competing products on cotton acreage has been significant in both irrigated and dryland models. Supply elasticity’s of this variable in the irrigated model is 0.12 in short run and 0.27 in long run. In dryland model, this elasticity is 0.16 and 0.26 respectively in short run and long run. According to the results, in addition to increasing the relative profitability of cotton compared to its competitors and reducing non-programing import, rising price and non-price supports of cotton like guaranteed prices in order to motivate farmers to increase the supply of this product is suggested.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • acreage
  • Cotton
  • Golestan province
  • support policies
  • producer support estimate

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