پیش‌بینی تغییرات میزان اشتغال بخش کشاورزی استان گیلان با استفاده از برخی شاخص‌های اقتصادی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار توسعة کشاورزی دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکدة اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

3 دانشجوی دکتری توسعة کشاورزی دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

چکیده

هدف کلی پژوهش حاضر، برآورد سری زمانی اشتغال بخش کشاورزی در استان گیلان در سال­های 1355-1390 و مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی آن با استفاده از شبکه‌های عصبی مصنوعی برای سال‌های 1391-1398 است. برای این منظور سری زمانی اشتغال با استفاده از روش درون‌یابی محاسبه شد و متغیرهای ورودی براساس پیشینة نظری و تجربی تحقیق انتخاب شدند. درنهایت، تعداد شاغلان بخش کشاورزی از طریق طراحی و آموزش شبکه‌های عصبی با معماری­ها و ویژگی‌‌های مختلف برآورد شد. داده‌های مورد نیاز از نتایج سرشماری نفوس و مسکن سال‌های 1355 تا 1390 و سالنامه‌های آماری استان استخراج شد. نتایج نشان داد در سال­های 1391-1393، مقادیر اشتغال پیش‌بینی‌شده در سطحی کمتر از سال 1390 است و پس از آن در سال­های 1394 تا 1398 درحالی‌که میزان رشد اشتغال دارای روندی کاهشی است، تعداد شاغلان این بخش به کندی افزایش می‌یابد. با توجه به ضعف آمارهای سری زمانی متغیرهای اقتصادی در سطح منطقه‌ای، این تحقیق گامی اولیه و ضروری برای دستیابی به آمارهای قابل اتکا از شاغلان بخش کشاورزی در سطح استان است که ضمن تولید داده‌های مورد نیاز پژوهش‌های بعدی در زمینة بازار کار، می‌تواند برای برنامه‌ریزی و سیاستگذاری در این زمینه، توسط مراجع ذی‌ربط استفاده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecasting changes in agricultural employment rate in Gilan Province using some economic indicators

نویسندگان [English]

  • Karim Naderi Mahdeie 1
  • Mohamad Hasan Fetros 2
  • Mahdi Khayati 3
1 Assistant Professor and Ph.D. Candidate, Agricultural Development, Abo Alisina University, Hamedan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Silence of Society, Abo Alisina University, Hamedan, Iran
3 Assistant Professor and Ph.D. Candidate, Agricultural Development, Abo Alisina University, Hamedan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The overall aim of the present study was to estimate the time series of agricultural employment in the Gilan province during 1976-2011, and modeling and forecasting employment using artificial neural networks for years 2012-2019. For this purpose, employment series calculated by interpolation and input variables selected based on previous theoretical and empirical research. Finally, number of agricultural work force predicted through designing and training of different neural networks architectures. Required data obtained through population and housing report of 1976-2011 and provincial statistical year books. Results showed that number of employees during the period from 2012-2014 will be lower than in 2011 and then during 2015 to 2019 will be increased. Due to lack of time series data of economic variables at the regional level, this research is an essential and primary step to achieve reliable statistics of number of agricultural employment at provincial level that Provide required data for future studies on labor market and can be used for planning and policy making by related authorities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agricultural sector
  • Artificial Neural Networks
  • employment forecasting

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