نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران
2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران
3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی انرژی های تجدیدپذیر، دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Considering importance and the role of forecasting water consumption in water resources management and implementing appropriate short- and long-run policies in order to optimize water demand, therefore, this study aims to provide a model for predicting the water consumption via Box and Jenkins method. To this end, monthly data for the domestic and Agricultural Water Consumptions of Tehran Province for 2001-2009 has been used. A HEGY seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots test, which was presented by Beaulieu and Miron (1993) for expanding monthly data has been performed. Following Box-Jenkins’ approach on the converted data, and were chosen to forecast water consumption in domestic and agriculture sectors, respectively. The results water consumption in each period was influenced by their level and the shocks they received during the previous periods. Therefore an approximate, not an exact prediction of the mentioned values lets the policy-makers have a general view towards the future value of the domestic and agricultural water consumption in the following months so that they can plan and make future decisions effectively in order to take necessary initiatives for appropriate management of water consumption and operation of water reservoirs.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)