تحلیل پیشران‌های کلیدی توسعه پایدار کشاورزی در حوضه آبریز زاینده رود استان اصفهان براساس رویکرد اثرات متقاطع

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• زهرا زارعی دستکردی ¹
• خلیل کلانتری ²
• علی اسدی ³

¹ گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

² گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

³ گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد وتوسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آینده‌نگاری
• پیشران‌های کلیدی
• توسعه کشاورزی
• حوضه آبریز زاینده‌رود

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the key drivers of sustainable agricultural development in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province with the approach of cross effects

نویسندگان [English]

• Zahra Zareidastgerdi ¹
• Khalil Kalantari ²
• Ali Asadi ³

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• foresight
• key drivers
• agricultural development
• Zayandeh Rood watershed

Introduction

The ever-increasing growth of the country's population, along with the variability of the global price of agricultural products, has made ensuring food security one of the most important priorities of the country's agricultural sector. On this basis, the planners of the country's agricultural sector have emphasized self-sufficiency in the production of basic products. Therefore, rational policy making and strategic planning to advance the sustainable development of this sector is one of the main concerns of the relevant institutional actors. Also, due to the ever-increasing changes and transformations, relying on traditional planning methods is no longer the answer, and the heavy shadow of uncertainties and the emergence of discontinuous and surprising events changes the situation in such a way that planning seems to be a difficult matter. The lack of ability to predict the future as well as the complications caused by the changes have caused the emerging knowledge of foresight to enter the activities of planning and forecasting developments.

Materials and Methods

In terms of its nature, the present research was an applied research and in terms of the method, it was a descriptive-survey type. From the point of view of data type, this research was of quantitative-qualitative type. The statistical population of this research was: 1- Managers and entrepreneurs of the agricultural sector in the Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province; 2- Academic researchers and professors active in the agricultural sector in the catchment area of Zayandeh River in Isfahan province; 3- Policy makers and managers active in the process of policy making and planning of agricultural development in Zayandeh River watershed of Isfahan province, who were selected by snowball sampling. In order to collect data, in addition to using library resources, researcher-made questionnaires and interviews were used. Qualitative data were collected with an open questionnaire and through interviews with experts and documents and quantitative data used in this research were prepared numerically and through the weighting of Delphi questionnaires. After collecting the indicators and variables, the matrix of mutual effects was formed in two steps.

A matrix was used for the foresight section of sustainable agricultural development and it was given to the experts of the agricultural sector that this matrix examined the mutual effects of sustainable agricultural development in the catchment area of Zayandeh River in Isfahan province. This matrix was designed as 43 x 43, and the range used in it was (0 = no impact to 3 = high impact). This section was analyzed by Mic Mac software.

Results

The most important drivers of sustainable agricultural development in the Zayandeh Rood watershed are: private sector support for creating the necessary infrastructure for development (AK), equipping and renovating traditional lands (L), developing low water-demanding products such as medicinal plants, saffron and saffron (F), proper management of water consumption between the industrial and agricultural sectors (S), increasing the economic efficiency of water (U), developing export products (H), establishing an integrated water management system (R) and proper management of the cultivation pattern (G) promoting Government support and financial facilities in the field of agricultural entrepreneurship (A), integration of agricultural lands (E) and the development of government support to create the necessary infrastructure for the development of intelligent agriculture (AI) which have a very high impact on other engines.

Discussion

At the present time, considering the risk of lack of water resources in the country and the importance of providing people's food security, the development of greenhouses by creating the perfect space and conditions for the growth of high-quality agricultural products in controllable environments should contribute significantly to the quantitative and qualitative increase of agricultural production. Efficiency in the use of land and production inputs and creation of productive and currency-earning employment.

Also, the creation and development of agricultural transformation and complementary industries and the use of existing capacities in the agricultural and industrial sectors can be the basis for creating new employment opportunities, increasing income, spreading technology, providing the country's needs for many basic goods, creating more added value and boosting non-oil exports.

Data Availability Statement

“Data available on request from the authors”

Ethical considerations

The authors avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and misconduct.

Conflict of interest

The author declares no conflict of interest.