طراحی و ارائه مدل پویای امنیت آب مبتنی بر تعاملات نظام اجتماعی – اکولوژیک (حوزه آبخیز دشت نیشابور)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• مریم یزدان پرست ¹
• مهدی قربانی ²

¹ موسسه کسب و کار اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

² گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

کلیدواژه‌ها

• امنیت آب
• پویایی سیستم
• سیستم‌های پیچیده
• مدل‌سازی عامل محور
• نت لوگو

موضوعات

• اقتصاد کشاورزی، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، توسعه پایدار ، توسعه روستایی ، کارآفرینی و ....

Extended Abstract

Objectives

Facing the problems of governance of water resources requires a multi-level and all-round approach. This all-round approach considers water policies as one of the components of a larger complex, which, along with other components such as extraction technology, infrastructure facilities, complementary industries, distribution and transmission networks, water market and even culture and the cultural symbols of water consumption together make up the socio-technological regime of water. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to design and present a dynamic model of water security for the Neyshabur Plain in Khorasan Razavi province using the integration of system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modeling (ABM) in the NetLogo software in order to identify the impact of different water consumption sectors on the water security situation in the watershed.

Methods

System dynamics (SD) and agent-based modeling (ABM) are two common methods for investigating complex systems. Each approach has its own advantages and disadvantages. So, these two models cannot solve the complex system simulation alone. Therefore, the dynamic model of water security in the Neishabur Plain watershed is built based on the NetLogo simulation platform and is associated with a dynamic and multi-factor system model.

Results

After designing the model based on the 20-year trend of changes in the parameters defined in the model, the observed and simulated data of the years 2011-2019 for the population factor, the amount of harvest in the agricultural, industrial, drinking and service sectors, the total volume of water demand and precipitation values were presented and validated. The results showed that the deviation of simulated data and real data is less than 10%, which indicates the effectiveness and reliability of the water security model presented in the present study.

Discussion

Modelers in developing conceptual models, calibrating and validating a complex water resources system faced difficulties including differences between scales and complexity. As a result, the review showed that most of the reviewed studies rarely considered the four subsystems, especially for systems that include cultural or political subsystems, because cultural or political variables cannot be easily conceptualized in both qualitative and quantitative aspects. A high level of uncertainty and dynamic complexities are inherent in water resource management systems due to nonlinear aspects, feedbacks, and delays, which pose challenges to decision makers. In addition, water resource systems have spatial and temporal characteristics, and therefore patterns in time and space must be examined together to understand the dynamic behavior of the system as a whole. In this regard, in the present study, using system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modeling (ABM), which are two common methods for investigating complex systems, a dynamic model of water security was designed and presented for the Neyshabur Plain watershed. The results of comparing the observed and simulated data of  2011-2019 for the population factor, the amount of harvesting in agriculture, industry, drinking and services sectors, the total volume of water demand and rainfall values ​​show that the deviation of simulated data and real data is less than 10 % and this shows the effectiveness and reliability of the water security model presented in the present study. Therefore, it can be used to predict the future water security situation in the Neyshabour Plain watershed, and while considering different scenarios in order to change the modifiable parameters of the model, and observing the impact of the change in each of them on the water security situation in the basin, it is possible to determined the best scenario and, in line with that, the best solution for improving water security in the Neyshabur Plain watershed.