نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران
2 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Given the strategic importance of wheat in the basket of Iranian household goods and its importance from a policy perspective, it is useful to evaluate the effects of government policies to support wheat producers in the provinces of Iran during development programs. The aim of this study is to estimate the linkages between the actual guaranteed price of wheat and its yield in Tehran province during 2000-2018 by considering the dummy variables of development programs of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Materials and Methods.
This study used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationary test, the Johansen Cointegration test, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to achieve the aim.
Results and Discussion
The actual guaranteed price of wheat and yield is stable at level I (1), and the optimal lag is the second lag. Based on the Cointegration test there is one long-run relationship between used variables. Therefore, The VECM model is estimated. The results of the VECM model show that the actual guaranteed price of wheat has a negative and significant effect on wheat yield in Tehran province. By a one percent increase in the actual guaranteed price of wheat, the yield will increase 1.07 percent. Also, the coefficient of vector error correction indicates that if in the short-run occurs a sudden shock to the actual guaranteed price of wheat, it will take about 2 periods to adjust the effect of this shock.
Conclusions
The results of the VECM model show that the actual guaranteed price of wheat has a positive and significant effect on wheat yield in Tehran province. By a one percent increase in the actual guaranteed price of wheat, the yield will increase 1.07 percent. Also, the coefficient of vector error correction indicates that if in the short-run occurs a sudden shock to the actual guaranteed price of wheat, it will take about 2 periods to adjust the effect of this shock. Considering that the yield is elastic to the actual price of wheat, suggesting to estimate the guaranteed price of wheat, based on actual price (deflated) in the purchasing policy, can encourage the improvement of wheat yield in the country's agricultural lands.
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