بررسی اثر مقیاس معادل و خط فقر بر میزان فقر در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مدیریت و توسعه دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

هدف این مقاله بررسی اثر مقیاس معادل بر میزان فقر، کاهش اثر مقیاس معادل در مطالعات فقر و کمک به ادبیات اندازه­گیری فقر در ایران است. بدین­منظور، با استفاده از داده­های هزینه و درآمد خانوار سال 1395 و بر اساس چهار مقیاس معادل و سه خط فقر، سطح فقر در ایران اندازه­گیری شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که مقیاس معادل و خط فقر تاثیر زیادی بر برآورد میزان فقر دارند؛ به­طوری­که با به­کارگیری مقیاس­های معادل و خطوط فقر مختلف نرخ سرشمار فقر از 07/0 تا 28 درصد تغییر می­کند. بنابراین، می­توان بیان کرد که به­کارگیری مقیاس معادل و خط فقر مناسب از پیش­شرط­های اساسی اندازه­گیری و سیاست­گذاری فقر است. پیشنهاد می­گردد از مقیاس معادل و خط فقر متناسب با شرایط ویژه هر یک از مناطق شهری و روستایی کشور استفاده گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


Extended Abstract

Objectives

      In poverty studies, often people and household with different non-income features are compared. Therefore, in order to avoid this kind of error and to estimate the household welfare more accurately, it’s necessary to adjust income to a variable besides of household size.  Equivalence scale is a standard method to solve of this problem that adjusts nominal income to real income and the income between households will be comparable. The selection of an official and valid equivalence is complex. So that, the equivalence scale will effects on poor population composition and eradication of poverty policies. To best of our knowledge there is no official organization to introduce equivalence scale in Iran. The main aim of this study is to how could reduce the effect of equivalence scale and poverty line on poverty rate in Iran and introducing appropriate equivalence scale to poverty measurement.

 

Methodology

      In this study, the Iran household Income and expenditure data (2016) was used to measurement of absolute poverty. The statistical population of this study include all households in both rural and urban region of country. The three stage- stratified sampling method is used to select the cases and the sample size were18809 urban and 19337 rural household. To estimate the poverty rate we apply the poverty headcount ratio, this index reveal the proportion of a population that exist, or lives below the defined poverty line. In order to estimate poverty we also apply four equivalence scales as follow: 1- per capita equivalence scale 2- OECD equivalence scale 3- adjusted OECD equivalence scale 4- square root of household size equivalence scale. Also we apply three poverty lines as follow: 1- the World Bank poverty line ($ 1.9 a day) 2- the World Bank poverty line ($ 3.2 a day) 3- the IPRCIRI[1] poverty line.

 

Result and discussion

     The result of poverty estimate indicate that when applying $ 1.9 poverty line, poverty rate vary from .07% to .13%. Hence, the difference between headcount ratios is very little with regard to equivalence scales. Also, when applying $ 3.2 poverty line, the maximum of poverty rate is 1.2% and poverty rate vary from .15% to 1.2%. Which shows very little difference between headcount ratios with regard to equivalence scales. As the result revealed, when applying low poverty line, the differences between poverty headcount ratios is very low and equivalence scale and poverty line have little impact on poverty rate. But, with applying IPRCIRI poverty line, the poverty headcount ratio increases and there is huge difference between headcount ratios according to equivalence scales. So that poverty rate vary from 7.2% to 28.2%. Accordingly it can be noted that in higher poverty line, the equivalence scale has enormous impact on poverty rate, such that poverty rate will increase by 28.2% using per capita equivalence scale. Also the result showed that in higher poverty lines, the poverty rate in crowded households are bigger than less populated households and the Square root of household size equivalence scale tend to decrease poverty rate among more populated households and per capita equivalence scale tend to increase poverty among more populated households.

 

Conclusion

      Base of the results, applying high poverty lines the equivalence scale has huge impact on poverty estimation and along with increasing household size difference between equivalence scales is increased. The findings revealed that applying per capita and square root equivalence scales are not appropriate to poverty measurement in Iran. Therefore the OECD and adjusted OECD equivalence scale are the most appropriate equivalence scales to poverty measurement. It’s recommended to apply appropriate equivalence scales and poverty lines according to circumstances of each specific region of the country.

 

[1] - Islamic parliament research center of the Islamic republic of Iran

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