تدوین و اعتبارسنجی شاخص‌های مناسب ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری مناطق کشاورزی در شرایط خشک‌سالی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجو دکترا، گروه آبیاری ، دانشکده مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه آبیاری ، دانشکده مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده مدیریت کشاورزی- دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان- گرگان، ایران

چکیده

اگرچه ابزارهای زیادی مبتنی بر شاخص برای ارزیابی آسیب­پذیری کشاورزی در دهه­های گذشته توسعه یافته است، اما تلاش قابل توجهی برای اعتبار سنجی آنها انجام نشده است. بنابراین، این مطالعه با هدف شناسایی و اعتبارسنجی شاخص‌های مناسب برای ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری مناطق کشاورزی در شرایط خشک‌سالی در استان گلستان انجام ‌شده است. در مرحله اول با بررسی ادبیات موضوع در زمینه آسیب‌پذیری در شرایط خشک‌سالی تعداد 64 شاخص در سه بعد "در معرض قرار گرفتن"، "حساسیت" و "سازگاری" تدوین و انتخاب شد. به­منظور اعتبارسنجی در معرض قضاوت 30 کارشناس خبره که از میان اعضای هیات علمی گروه‌های مهندسی آب، زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی و اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع­طبیعی گرگان و کارشناسان شرکت مهندسین فعال در زمینه آب انتخاب ‌شده بودند، قرار گرفت. به‌­منظور دستیابی به توافق جمعی کارشناسان نمونه و تعیین سطح اعتبار شاخص‌ها، آماره‌های میانگین، انحراف معیار و ضریب تغییرات برای هرکدام از شاخص‌ها محاسبه گردید. جهت بررسی این فرضیه که امتیاز شاخص‌های مورد نظر بیش­تر از حد میانگین است، از آزمون t تک‌نمونه‌ای استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که، به‌جز یک شاخص، بقیه شاخص‌ها از نظر کارشناسان برای ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری مناطق کشاورزی در شرایط خشک­سالی مناسب می‌باشند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Development and validation of appropriate indicators to assess the vulnerability of agricultural areas in drought

نویسندگان [English]

  • Narges Kefayati 1
  • Khalil Ghorbani 2
  • Gholamhossein Abdollahzadeh 3
1 PhD Student, Department of Irrigation, College of Water Engineering, University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources Gorgan, Gorgan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation, College of Water Engineering, University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources Gorgan, Gorgan, Iran
3 َAssociate Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education,-Faculty of Agricultural Management-Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

    Although many indicator-based vulnerability assessing tools for agriculture have been developed in the last decades, considerably less effort has been put on their validation. The aim of this study was to identify and validate appropriate indicators to assess the vulnerability of agricultural areas in drought conditions in Golestan province. In the first stage, by examining the literature on vulnerability in drought conditions, 64 indicators in three dimensions of "exposure", "sensitivity" and "adaptability" were developed and selected. In order to be judged, 30 experts were selected from among the faculty members of the Departments of Water Engineering, Agriculture and Plant Breeding, Agricultural Extension and Education and Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, and experts from the Water Engineers Company. In order to reach the collective agreement of the sample experts and to determine the validity level of the indicators, the average statistics, standard deviation and coefficient of variation were calculated for each of the indicators. To test the hypothesis that the score of the desired indicators is higher than the average, a sample t-test was used. The results showed that, except for one indicator, all other indicators were suitable by experts to assess the vulnerability of agricultural areas in drought conditions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Vulnerability indicators
  • regional vulnerability
  • exposure
  • sensitivity
  • compatibility

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 52، شماره 3
مهر 1400
صفحه 457-468

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