نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران.
2 گروه توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Lorestan province is one of the 5 flood-prone provinces in terms of weather conditions and high average rainfall. During floods, many economic and social damages are inflicted on individuals and their livelihoods. Estimating post-flood vulnerability is always one of the challenges of crisis and risk management. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability of farmers to floods. The statistical population of this study is 3843 households who are living along the Afrineh river basin in Poledokhtar Township. The sample size was determined to be 350 according to Cochran's formula and the participants were selected through a simple random sampling method. An Index-based method was used to assess vulnerability. The vulnerability was measured based on three components of exposure, sensitivity and, adaptive capacity. Cluster analysis and one-way ANOVA were used to grouping and identify the factors affecting the vulnerability. The results showed that most rural households are in the middle class based on vulnerability to floods. The results of the analysis of variance showed that flood duration index in exposure dimension, financial and, livelihood indicators in sensitivity dimension and social capital and human capital indicators in adaptation dimension had a significant effect on the vulnerability of rural households. Therefore, diversifying products and sources of income and encouraging villagers to participate in rural organizations and, creating incentives for participation and cooperation among farmers can play a constructive role in reducing the effects of flood risk.
کلیدواژهها [English]
Extended Abstract
Objectives
Iran is always subject to natural disasters such as landslides, earthquakes, droughts and floods. Floods are the most frequent type of natural disaster, which according to the UNDP, floods with earthquakes and droughts have the highest rank in terms of financial and human damages (Beheshtirad et al., 2009). During floods, many economic and social damages are inflicted on individuals and their livelihoods. Floods have adverse effects on human health, food security, economic activity, physical infrastructure, natural resources, and the environment. For this reason, reducing the damage caused by floods has always been a concern of human societies. Lorestan province is one of the 5 flood-prone provinces in terms of location in the Middle Zagros, mountainous topography, expansion of impermeable geological formations, climatic conditions and high average rainfall. The frequency of floods in recent decades in some parts of Lorestan province has caused most areas of the province to be exposed to periodic and devastating floods and the loss of life and property of floods has increased significantly. The escalation of flood damage has led to the long-standing desire for a definitive solution to the flood and runoff problem to be replaced by realism and understanding of the fact that flood control cannot always be successful; but, efforts should be made to reduce its destructive and harmful consequences. Thereforethe present study seeks to answer the question of what economic, social, human, infrastructural, financial and livelihood damages do rural households face in a flood situation?
Methods
In the present study, descriptive-survey research method was used. The statistical population of this study is 3843 households who are living along the Afrineh river basin in Poledokhtar Township. The sample size was determined to be 350 according to Cochran's formula and the participants were selected through simple random sampling method. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect data. An Index-based method was used to assess vulnerability. Vulnerability was measured based on three components of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators were determined through previous studies, focus group meetings with experts and farmers. A questionnaire was prepared for weighting the indicators by the three groups of specialists, including professors of the Faculty of Agriculture, members of engineering consulting firms and experts of the agricultural jihad. In order to calculate the severity of vulnerability, it is necessary to express the dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for each sub-index in the range 0 to 1. The total vulnerability was then calculated using the formula. Cluster analysis was used to group the respondents according to the level of vulnerability. Based on this, the respondents were classified into three groups with low, medium and high vulnerability. In the next step, one-way ANOVA was used to identify the indicators affecting the vulnerability of rural households.
Results
The results showed that 41.28% of households were in the high vulnerability category, 48.21% of the households were in the medium vulnerability category and 10.51% of the households were in the low vulnerable category. In other words, most households were in the middle category in terms of vulnerability. One Way ANOVA was used to identify the indicators affecting the level of vulnerability among rural households. Three clusters created from cluster analysis (low, medium and high vulnerability) were considered as dependent variables and sub-indices of the three dimensions of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, compatibility) were also considered as independent variables in analysis of variance. The results of analysis of variance showed that flood duration index in exposure dimension, financial and livelihood indicators in sensitivity dimension and social capital and human capital indicators in adaptation dimension had significant effect on the vulnerability of rural households.
Discussion
The results of analysis of variance showed that the flood duration index in the exposure dimension had significant effect on the vulnerability of rural households to floods; the longer the flood, more land around the river have been flooded and the damage it is wider. Increasing the duration of a flood means increasing the length of time that a farmer's property and assets are at risk. In the livelihood index, there is a sub-index of the income earned from the agricultural sector, which affected the vulnerability of households to floods. This finding is consistent with the results of studies by Williams et al. (2019), Abdul Razak & Kruse (2017) and Brosch & Sander, 2015). The economy of rural households is significantly dependent on the agricultural sector, and as reported by Davies et al. (2009), rural people who depend on agriculture for their livelihood are more affected by stresses and shocks (such as floods and droughts). The results also showed that the social capital index in the dimension of adaptation had a significant effect on the vulnerability of rural households to floods. The results of studies by Aldrich et al. (Aldrich et al., 2016), Fernandez et al. (Fernandez et al., 2016), Petzold (Petzold, 2016), Jordan (2015, Jordan) and Edger (Adger, 2001) confirm this finding. They believe that adaptability is a dynamic social process and adaptability ability of communities is partly determined by the ability to act collectively. Social capital provides information about trustworthiness, facilitates collective action, and connects individuals to external sources in times of disaster and crisis.
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