بررسی آثار اقتصادی و رفاهی طرح انتقال آب طالقان در قالب یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

4 استادیار و استاد مدعو گروه اقتصاد ، دانشکده اقتصاد ، دانشگاه یورک، تورنتو،کانادا

چکیده

افزایش تقاضای منابع آب و کاهش منابع منجر به اعمال سیاست­ها و روش­های مختلف مدیریتی آب شده است. طرح­های انتقال آب یکی از این روش­هاست که درواقع، از یک­سو پاسخی به مساله ناهماهنگی در مقابل توزیع جمعیت و فعالیت­های مربوط به آن است و از سوی دیگر، توزیع مکانی آب است. این طرح­ها در عین­حال که راه­حلی برای بحران آب است، آثار مختلفی دارد. لذا، این مطالعه به بررسی آثار بلندمدت اقتصادی طرح انتقال آب طالقان در طی 30 سال در قالب یک مدل تعادل پویا می­پردازد. برای این منظور ابتدا جدول داده-ستانده استان تهران طراحی شد و ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی به­دست آمد. سپس، از مدل تعادل عمومی پویا برای بررسی انتقال آب استفاده شد. براساس نتایج مطالعه، انتقال آب اثر منفی بر رفاه خانوار دارد و اثر این طرح­ها برتولید ناخالص، ارزش افزوده، تقاضای سرمایه گذاری، تقاضای خانوار در بخش­های کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات اثر چندانی ندارد و نیز، در طی 30 سال این روند ادامه دارد. لذا، نتایج این  قبیل مطالعات و بررسی سایر آثار می­تواند رهنمودی برای برنامه­ریزان برای طرح­های آتی قرار گیرد.

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