بررسی آثار اقتصادی و رفاهی طرح انتقال آب طالقان در قالب یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

4 استادیار و استاد مدعو گروه اقتصاد ، دانشکده اقتصاد ، دانشگاه یورک، تورنتو،کانادا

چکیده

افزایش تقاضای منابع آب و کاهش منابع منجر به اعمال سیاست­ها و روش­های مختلف مدیریتی آب شده است. طرح­های انتقال آب یکی از این روش­هاست که درواقع، از یک­سو پاسخی به مساله ناهماهنگی در مقابل توزیع جمعیت و فعالیت­های مربوط به آن است و از سوی دیگر، توزیع مکانی آب است. این طرح­ها در عین­حال که راه­حلی برای بحران آب است، آثار مختلفی دارد. لذا، این مطالعه به بررسی آثار بلندمدت اقتصادی طرح انتقال آب طالقان در طی 30 سال در قالب یک مدل تعادل پویا می­پردازد. برای این منظور ابتدا جدول داده-ستانده استان تهران طراحی شد و ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی به­دست آمد. سپس، از مدل تعادل عمومی پویا برای بررسی انتقال آب استفاده شد. براساس نتایج مطالعه، انتقال آب اثر منفی بر رفاه خانوار دارد و اثر این طرح­ها برتولید ناخالص، ارزش افزوده، تقاضای سرمایه گذاری، تقاضای خانوار در بخش­های کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات اثر چندانی ندارد و نیز، در طی 30 سال این روند ادامه دارد. لذا، نتایج این  قبیل مطالعات و بررسی سایر آثار می­تواند رهنمودی برای برنامه­ریزان برای طرح­های آتی قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Welfare and economic Effects of Taleghan Water Transfer Project in the form of a General Dynamic Equilibrium Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • shahrbanoo bagheri 1
  • Baballah Haiati 2
  • Saeid Yazdani 3
  • mortaza baky-haskuee 4
1 PhD student ،Department of Agricultural Economics,Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz,Tabriz, Iran
2 Professor, Department Agricultural Economic,Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz,Tabriz, Iran
3 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
4 Assistant Professor and Visiting Professor ,Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics , York University, ON, Canada
چکیده [English]

Increasing demand for water resources and reducing resources has led to the implementation of various water management policies and procedures. Water transfer plans are one of these methods, which on the one hand is a response to the problem of imbalance with the distribution of the population and its related activities, and on the other hand, the spatial distribution of water. These plans, while is a solution to the water crisis, have effects. Therefore, this study investigates the long-term welfare and economic effects of Taleghan water transfer project to Tehran Province in 30 years in the form of a general dynamic equilibrium model. For this purpose, the input-output table of Tehran province was first designed and social accounting matrix was obtained. and then the dynamic general equilibrium model was used to investigate water transfer in the long-run. The results of this study show the negative effects of household welfare,and the effect of these projects on gross output, value added, investment demand, household demand in agriculture, industry and services is not significant, and also in This trend continues for 30 years. Hence, the results of such studies and studies of other effects can be a guide for planners and policymakers for future plans.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic effects
  • General dynamic equilibrium model
  • Inter-basin water transfer
  • Input-output table
  • Social accounting matrix
  • Water scarcity
  • Welfare effects

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 52، شماره 1
فروردین 1400
صفحه 11-31

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