Forecasting Tractor Demand in Target Markets of Iran,  (Africa, West Asia) An Application of Compound Forecast

Hoseini, S. Safdar; Mafi, Hassan; Arvandi, Mahdi

Forecasting Tractor Demand in Target Markets of Iran, (Africa, West Asia) An Application of Compound Forecast

Authors

S. Safdar Hoseini

Hassan Mafi

Mahdi Arvandi

Abstract

The main purpose of this study was to estimate the market demand of tractor stock in Africa, West Asia and other target markets for Iran manufactured tractors. Box and Jenkins, and Exponential Smoothing methods were applied, using data from 1961 to 2006. Results indicated that demand for tractor stock in the target markets will be approximately 533 thousand sets in 2012 and consequently the annual gross demand for tractor would be equal to 26 thousand sets in this year. According to the results obtained these countries are, therefore, a suitable market for the export of Iran manufactured tractors. As a result, it can be suggested that for preservation and extension of tractor export market of Iran, extension along with diversity in production be planned and, appropriate commercial treaties signed to stabilize the domestic producers’ market as necessary and needed.

Keywords

demand

Forecast

Iran

Target markets

Tractor stock