بررسی پویایی‌های کوتاه‌مدت تحرک درآمدی خانوارهای ایرانی در شرایط رکود تورمی: آیا فقر یک تله است؟

پیش بهار, اسماعیل; داودنیا, زکیه; قهرمان زاده, محمد; حسین زاد, جواد; دور اندیش, آرش

doi:10.22059/ijaedr.2026.411188.669424

بررسی پویایی‌های کوتاه‌مدت تحرک درآمدی خانوارهای ایرانی در شرایط رکود تورمی: آیا فقر یک تله است؟

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

اسماعیل پیش بهار ¹

زکیه داودنیا ²

محمد قهرمان زاده ²

جواد حسین زاد ³

آرش دور اندیش ⁴

¹ گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

² گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

³ گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

⁴ گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

10.22059/ijaedr.2026.411188.669424

چکیده

دامداری‌های صنعتی در مناطق نیمه‌خشک با ریسک‌های عملیاتی متعددی مواجه‌اند که می‌تواند تداوم کسب‌وکار و بهره‌وری آن‌ها را تهدید کند. هدف از این مطالعه، شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی ریسک‌های عملیاتی در نظام‌های دامداری صنعتی با استفاده از شواهد به‌دست‌آمده از ۵۰ واحد پرورش گاو شیری در تحرّک درآمدی یکی از شاخص‌های کلیدی پویایی اقتصادی است و نقش مهمی در ارزیابی نابرابری و فرصت‌های ارتقای اقتصادی خانوارها دارد. این مطالعه الگوهای تحرّک درآمدی درون‌نسلی خانوارهای شهری و روستایی ایران طی سال‌های ۱۴۰۰ تا ۱۴۰۲ را با استفاده از ماتریس‌های انتقال دهک‌های درآمدی، شاخص شوروکس و مدل‌های رگرسیون پانلی بررسی می‌کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد بیشترین جابه‌جایی درآمدی در دهک‌های میانی رخ می‌دهد، در حالی که دهک‌های ابتدایی و انتهایی از ثبات نسبی بیشتری برخوردارند؛ به‌گونه‌ای که خانوارهای کم‌درآمد و پردرآمد در مقایسه با دهک‌های میانی، احتمال بیشتری برای باقی ماندن در موقعیت درآمدی پیشین خود دارند. مقایسه مناطق شهری و روستایی حاکی از شباهت الگوی کلی تحرّک همراه با تفاوت در شدت و عوامل مؤثر است؛ به‌طوری‌که دهک‌های پایین شهری نسبت به دهک‌های پایین روستایی تحرّک کمتری داشته و خانوارهای روستایی حساسیت بیشتری نسبت به ویژگی‌های جمعیتی و شرایط اقتصادی نشان می‌دهند. نتایج مدل‌های رگرسیون پانلی نقش معنادار سن سرپرست، اندازه خانوار، مالکیت دارایی‌ها، دسترسی به اینترنت، الگوی مخارج و متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی را در تعیین جایگاه درآمدی و تحرّک دهکی تأیید می‌کند. تورم، به‌ویژه در مناطق شهری، یکی از مهم‌ترین موانع ارتقای درآمدی خانوارها محسوب می‌شود. این یافته‌ها بر ضرورت اتخاذ سیاست‌های هدفمند منطقه‌ای تأکید دارند که از طریق کنترل تورم، تقویت درآمد واقعی خانوارها، بهبود دسترسی به دارایی‌ها و توسعه زیرساخت‌های اطلاعاتی، زمینه افزایش فرصت‌های تحرّک درآمدی را فراهم سازند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

انتقال بین‌دهکی

پویایی اقتصادی

رفاه خانوار

نوسانات اقتصاد کلان

پانل چرخشی

شاخص شوروکس

موضوعات

اقتصاد کشاورزی

عنوان مقاله English

Examining the Short-Term Dynamics of Income Mobility among Iranian Households under Stagflationary Conditions: Is Poverty a Trap?

نویسندگان English

Esmaeil Pishbahar ¹

Zakieh Davoudnia ²

Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh ²

Javad Hosseinzad ³

Arash Dourandish ⁴

¹ Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

² Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

³ Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

⁴ Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development,, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

چکیده English

Industrial livestock farms in semi-arid regions face multiple operational risks that can threaten business continuity and productivity. This study aimed to identify and prioritize operational risks in industrial livestock systems using evidence from 50 dairy farms in Mashhad County, north-eastern Iran. We applied a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach to develop a risk register and classify risks across major functional domains. Risk priority numbers were then computed based on severity, occurrence, and detectability. Risk scores were elicited through structured expert-based assessments with key farm stakeholders and aggregated to rank risks and highlight high-priority clusters. Results indicate that feed-related volatility (price shocks and quality instability), microclimate control failures (cooling and ventilation disruptions), workforce instability (turnover and skill gaps), and cold-chain disruptions (milk handling and storage reliability) rank among the most critical risks. These risks are not only frequent or severe, but also difficult to detect early, which increases the likelihood of cascading losses through reduced milk yield, herd health complications, and operational downtime. The findings suggest that strengthening preventive management is essential to reduce both the occurrence frequency and the detectability deficiencies of high-priority risks. Key actions include systematic feed-quality monitoring, routine herd health surveillance, and reliability-focused maintenance for cooling, ventilation, and milk-cooling systems. In addition, improving institutional support mechanisms—particularly advisory and extension services, credible and transparent risk-transfer arrangements, and more effective cooperative governance—can enhance implementation capacity and resilience. Overall, the study provides an evidence-based prioritization to guide farm managers and policymakers toward integrated operational risk management in industrial livestock systems operating under semi-arid constraints.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Resilience

Climate variability

Mashhad

Uncertainty

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