تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران

تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران

مدیریت ریسک‌های عملیاتی در واحدهای صنعتی پرورش گاو شیری: رویکردی مبتنی بر FMEA

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
علی مولایی
علی فیروززارع
نازنین یوسفیان
گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
10.22059/ijaedr.2026.410517.669421
چکیده
دامداری‌های صنعتی در مناطق نیمه‌خشک با ریسک‌های عملیاتی متعددی مواجه‌اند که می‌تواند تداوم کسب‌وکار و بهره‌وری آن‌ها را تهدید کند. هدف از این مطالعه، شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی ریسک‌های عملیاتی در نظام‌های دامداری صنعتی با استفاده از شواهد به‌دست‌آمده از ۵۰ واحد پرورش گاو شیری در شهرستان مشهد واقع در شمال‌شرقی ایران است. برای این منظور، رویکرد تجزیه‌وتحلیل حالت و اثرات خطا (FMEA) به‌منظور تدوین یک فهرست ثبت ریسک و طبقه‌بندی ریسک‌ها در حوزه‌های عملکردی اصلی به کار گرفته شد. سپس، اعداد اولویت ریسک بر اساس سه شاخص شدت، وقوع و قابلیت تشخیص محاسبه گردید. نمرات ریسک از طریق ارزیابی‌های ساختاریافته‌ مبتنی بر نظر کارشناسان با حضور ذی‌نفعان کلیدی واحدها استخراج شد و به‌منظور رتبه‌بندی مخاطرات و برجسته‌سازی خوشه‌های با اولویت بالا، تجمیع گردید. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که نوسانات مرتبط با خوراک دام (شوک‌های قیمتی و ناپایداری کیفیت)، نقص در کنترل ریزاقلیم (اختلال در سیستم‌های سرمایش و تهویه)، بی‌ثباتی نیروی کار (جابه‌جایی کارکنان و شکاف مهارتی) و اختلال در زنجیره سرد (قابلیت اطمینان در جابه‌جایی و نگهداری شیر) در زمره بحرانی‌ترین ریسک‌ها قرار دارند. این ریسک‌ها نه‌تنها مکرر یا شدید هستند، بلکه تشخیص زودهنگام آن‌ها نیز دشوار است؛ امری که احتمال وقوع زیان‌های پی‌درپی را از طریق کاهش تولید شیر، عوارض مرتبط با سلامت گله و توقف عملیات، افزایش می‌دهد. یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که تقویت مدیریت پیشگیرانه به‌منظور کاهش تواتر وقوع و رفع کاستی‌های مربوط به قابلیت تشخیص در ریسک‌های دارای اولویت بالا، امری ضروری است. اقدامات کلیدی در این زمینه شامل پایش سیستماتیک کیفیت خوراک، مراقبت و ارزیابی مستمر سلامت گله، و همچنین نگهداری و تعمیرات مبتنی بر قابلیت اطمینان برای سیستم‌های سرمایشی، تهویه و خنک‌کننده شیر است. افزون بر این، بهبود سازوکارهای حمایتی نهادی - به‌ویژه خدمات مشاوره‌ای و ترویجی، ترتیبات معتبر و شفاف انتقال ریسک و حکمرانی کارآمدتر تعاونی‌ها- می‌تواند ظرفیت اجرایی و تاب‌آوری را ارتقا بخشد. در مجموع، این مطالعه یک اولویت‌بندی مبتنی بر شواهد را ارائه می‌دهد تا مدیران واحدها و سیاست‌گذاران را به‌سوی مدیریت یکپارچه ریسک‌های عملیاتی در واحدهای صنعتی پرورش گاو شیری تحت محدودیت‌های مناطق نیمه‌خشک هدایت نماید.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تاب‌آوری
تغییرپذیری اقلیمی
مشهد
عدم‌قطعیت
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Operational Risk Management in Industrial Dairy Farms: An FMEA-Based Approach

نویسندگان English

Ali Mollaei
Ali Firoozzare
Nazanin Yousefian
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده English

Industrial livestock farms in semi-arid regions face multiple operational risks that can threaten business continuity and productivity. This study aimed to identify and prioritize operational risks in industrial livestock systems using evidence from 50 dairy farms in Mashhad County, north-eastern Iran. We applied a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach to develop a risk register and classify risks across major functional domains. Risk priority numbers were then computed based on severity, occurrence, and detectability. Risk scores were elicited through structured expert-based assessments with key farm stakeholders and aggregated to rank risks and highlight high-priority clusters. Results indicate that feed-related volatility (price shocks and quality instability), microclimate control failures (cooling and ventilation disruptions), workforce instability (turnover and skill gaps), and cold-chain disruptions (milk handling and storage reliability) rank among the most critical risks. These risks are not only frequent or severe, but also difficult to detect early, which increases the likelihood of cascading losses through reduced milk yield, herd health complications, and operational downtime. The findings suggest that strengthening preventive management is essential to reduce both the occurrence frequency and the detectability deficiencies of high-priority risks. Key actions include systematic feed-quality monitoring, routine herd health surveillance, and reliability-focused maintenance for cooling, ventilation, and milk-cooling systems. In addition, improving institutional support mechanisms—particularly advisory and extension services, credible and transparent risk-transfer arrangements, and more effective cooperative governance—can enhance implementation capacity and resilience. Overall, the study provides an evidence-based prioritization to guide farm managers and policymakers toward integrated operational risk management in industrial livestock systems operating under semi-arid constraints.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

;">Resilience, ;">Climate variability, ;">Mashhad, ;">Uncertainty.
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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 57، شماره 2
تابستان 1405
صفحه 311-328