ارزیابی آثار سیاست یارانه نهاده‌ها در مقابل پرداخت مستقیم بر الگوی کشت محصولات زراعی (مورد مطالعه: دشت دهگلان، استان کردستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

3 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

10.22059/ijaedr.2026.408943.669413

چکیده

دولت‌ها از طریق ابزارهای متعددی مانند یارانه‌های مستقیم، یارانه‌های نهاده‌ها، یارانه‌های صادراتی و سایر سیاست‌های حمایتی قادر به تأثیرگذاری بر میزان تولید و سطح زیرکشت محصولات کشاورزی هستند. این سیاست‌ها ممکن است منجر به تغییر الگوی کشت و بهبود درآمد کشاورزان شوند. در این مطالعه، با استفاده از مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی اثباتی، آثار تغییر سیاست حمایتی دولت در قالب چهار سناریو، تداوم وضعیت موجود، حذف یارانه نهاده‌ها، اجرای پرداخت مستقیم به کشاورزان، و اجرای هم‌زمان پرداخت مستقیم همراه با تغییر الگوی کشت، بر سودآوری و تخصیص منابع کشاورزی طی سال زراعی 1402-1403 بررسی شد. نتایج حاصل از اجرای سناریوهای مختلف سیاستی نشان می‌دهد که در واکنش به تغییر نظام حمایتی، سطح زیر کشت محصولاتی نظیر گندم آبی، نخود آبی، نخود دیم و جو دیم افزایش یافته است، در حالی که سطح زیر کشت گندم دیم، جو آبی، سیب‌زمینی، خیار، یونجه و پیاز کاهش را تجربه کرده است. این تغییرات حاکی از تعدیل الگوی کشت به سمت محصولاتی با بازده اقتصادی بالاتر، ریسک تولید کمتر و سازگاری بیشتر با محدودیت منابع و چارچوب سیاست پرداخت مستقیم است و نشان می‌دهد که تغییر سیاست حمایتی می‌تواند رفتار تولیدی کشاورزان را به سمت تخصیص کاراتر منابع هدایت کند. همچنین اعمال این سناریوها حاکی از کاهش مصرف نهاده‌های کود شیمایی است که  از نظر زیست‌محیطی دارای اهمیت است. همچنین، جایگزینی سیاست یارانه نهاده‌ها با سیاست پرداخت مستقیم، از منظر کارایی اقتصادی و پایداری زیست‌محیطی، رویکردی کارا و اثربخش محسوب می‌شود که ضمن حمایت از درآمد کشاورزان، از طریق کاهش مصرف کودهای شیمیایی، سموم و سوخت‌های فسیلی، به بهبود وضعیت محیط‌زیستی و ارتقای پایداری منابع طبیعی در منطقه مورد مطالعه منجر می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the Effects of Input Subsidy Policy versus Direct Payment on the Cropping Pattern of Agricultural Products (Case Study: Dehgolan Plain, Kurdistan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shiva Ramaei 1
  • Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo 2
  • Mohammad Hasan Vakilpoor 3
1 Agricultural Economics Department, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran. Iran.
2 Agricultural Economics Department, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Agricultural Economics Department, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Governments can influence agricultural production levels and cropping patterns through a range of policy instruments, including direct payments, input subsidies, export subsidies, and other support measures. Such policies may alter cropping decisions and improve farm income. In this study, using a Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model, the effects of a change in government support policy were examined under four scenarios— (1) continuation of the current input subsidy policy, (2) full removal of input subsidies, (3) implementation of direct payments to farmers, and (4) simultaneous implementation of direct payments with cropping pattern adjustment—on farm profitability and resource allocation during the 2023–2024 crop year. The results of the policy scenarios show that, in response to the change in the support regime, the cultivated area of irrigated wheat, irrigated bean, rainfed bean, and rainfed barley increased. In contrast, the cultivated area of rainfed wheat, irrigated barley, potato, cucumber, alfalfa, and onion declined. These changes indicate a shift in the cropping pattern toward crops with higher economic returns, lower production risk, and greater compatibility with resource constraints and the framework of the direct payment policy, suggesting that a change in support policy can guide farmers’ production behavior toward more efficient resource allocation. The scenarios also led to a reduction in chemical fertilizer use, which is environmentally important. Moreover, replacing input subsidies with direct payments was found to be an effective and efficient approach in terms of both economic performance and environmental sustainability, as it supports farm income while reducing the use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and fossil fuels. This, in turn, improves environmental conditions and enhances the sustainability of natural resources in the study area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agricultural policy
  • Profitability
  • Input use
  • Positive Mathematical Programming
  • Environment

مراجع

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 57، شماره 2
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