نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران
2 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج. ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Given the various export limitations facing the Iranian economy, it is essential to assess the export potential of agricultural products such as onions and shallots. This research employs the stochastic frontier gravity model and the fractional probit panel model to analyze the factors affecting the export performance and efficiency of Iranian onions and shallots (tariff code 070310) to 39 selected countries from 2004 to 2023. The results indicate that GDP per capita in importing countries, the ratio of export prices to domestic prices, the real exchange rate, shared borders, and trade agreements have a significant positive impact on exports of Iranian onions and shallots. Conversely, trade liberalization, Iran's GDP per capita, and the export costs faced by importing countries negatively affect these exports. The average efficiency of Iranian onion and shallot exports is estimated at 0.79, suggesting an export shortfall of approximately 21%. The markets in Iraq and the UAE present the greatest potential for export growth, with estimated gaps of $6.9 million and $2.04 million, respectively. Furthermore, the findings from the Fractional Probit Panel Model revealed that capital productivity, investments in research and development, rail infrastructure, and the globalization index positively influence export efficiency, whereas geographical distance negatively affects export efficiency. Therefore, it is recommended to concentrate on three areas for policy development: lowering export costs, targeting markets with high capacity, and investing in productivity and technology.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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