نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
Extended Abstract
The Harirod River, a key water resource for the Sarakhs Plain, has experienced an average flow reduction of over 63% in the past two decades due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. This decline in river flow has led to numerous environmental consequences, including a drop in groundwater levels, increased dust storms, and land subsidence in the plain. These impacts have been further exacerbated by transboundary actions, such as the construction of the Salma Dam in Afghanistan, significantly affecting the livelihoods of farmers and the environment in the Sarakhs Plain. This situation underscores the necessity of evaluating the economic consequences of reduced shared water resources. This study hypothesizes that if the policy of transferring water from agricultural to domestic use in the Doosti Dam had not been implemented, and if the water available to farmers in the Sarakhs Plain had been allocated according to the treaty (equivalent to one-third of the Harirod River's inflow), the extent of damage to the agricultural sector and groundwater resources in the Sarakhs Plain due to reduced river flow could have been determined.h Method
Research Method
To estimate the damage to the agricultural sector, a Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model was used, along with production cost data from the baseline period. The net effects of changes in river flow were analyzed, assuming other factors affecting cultivated area and farmers' profits remained constant over the period from 2007 to 2021. To calculate the damage to groundwater resources, the shadow value obtained from the PMP model for the baseline year was applied to scenarios of annual flow changes and the volume of lost groundwater. And Conclusion
Findings and Conclusion
The cumulative damage to the agricultural sector caused by the reduction in river flow due to upstream factors (Afghanistan) during the study period was estimated at 7,036 billion Rials, with a cumulative reduction in cultivated area of 50,375 hectares compared to the baseline period. The damage to groundwater resources was estimated at 8,219 billion Rials. The total damage to the Sarakhs Plain was estimated at 15,255 billion Rials, averaging 1,017 billion Rials annually, equivalent to 76% of the agricultural sector's value added at 2023 prices. Therefore, it is recommended that the findings of this study be used as a scientific and evidence-based tool to support legal claims for compensation, enhance the bargaining power of Iranian officials in water diplomacy, and secure Iran's water rights from the upstream country (Afghanistan) in international forums.
This article is an extract from a postdoctoral research project, the contribution and role of the first author was as the project leader, and the second author was as the project guide and host.
Not applicable
The authors would like to thank Tarbiat Modares University and the National Elite Foundation
The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the University of Tarbiat Modares, The authors avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and misconduct.
The author declares no conflict of interest.
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