نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
Extended Abstract
Economic growth and the expansion of global markets alone are not factors that lead to the growth of a country's exports. Other macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and exchange rates, affect the relationship between these two factors. The relationship between inflation and exchange rates has always been an interesting subject for economists. On one hand, if the exchange rate is fixed, inflation and rising domestic prices can reduce exports. On the other hand, if the exchange rate is floating- in which inflationary pressure is released through the depreciation of the national currency- exports will increase, especially if the government does not allow prices to grow by imposing the price. In Iran, due to the suppression of prices and the exchange rate, the relationship between the exchange rate and exports has become more complex. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between foodstuffs exports from Mazandaran province to its major trading partners and the exchange rate, taking into account the impact of inflation on this relationship.
Methods
For studying the impact of inflation on the relationship between the exchange rate and exports, two regimes were considered: one when the inflation rate was higher than the exchange rate and two when it was lower. A multivariate regression model was used to measure the dual effect of the inflation rate.
"Exportit" represents the value of agricultural and food product exports from the Mazandaran province to country i at time t (month-year), ExchangeRateit denotes the exchange rate of one unit of country i's currency with the IRR time t, and Dumit is a dummy variable that equals one if the exchange rate of the IRR with country i' currency has grown more than the inflation rate in the given month compared to the previous month, and zero otherwise. s are the parameters of the model that may vary for each selected country. Data indluded from March 2018 to March 2023 on a monthly basis, and it focuses on nine major export destinations for agricultural products and foodstuffs from Mazandaran. The model used was a panel data, which was specified using fixed effects after diagnostic tests. Since in many time, Iran's trade interactions, the currency of the destination country is used instead of the USD, the exchange rate data were collected based on the conversion rate between the destination country's currency and IRR (Iran' Rials). To eliminate the effect of size, an index was used (March 2018 = 100). The target countries included Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan.
Results
The export range of foodstuffs from Mazandaran is limited to neighboring and nearby countries. The largest exports from the province are to Iraq, Armenia, and Turkey. The CV ( coefficient of variation) shows that these markets, in addition to their size, are also the most stable markets for Mazandaran exporters. A comparison of Iran's inflation rate with the exchange rates of most selected countries before and after November 2021 shows differences. The monthly exchange rate changes for the selected countries from the start of the study period to November 2021 were higher than Iran's inflation rate. However, from November 2021 onwards, the exchange rate changes of countries such as Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Afghanistan were lower than the inflation rate. The estimation results showed that the relationship between exports and exchange rates differs in the two scenarios where inflation is higher or lower than the exchange rate (p<0.01). On average, when the exchange rate growth is higher than inflation, the province’s exports are $246,000 higher than when exchange rate growth is lower than inflation.
Discussion
Based on the results, it is expected that when domestic price growth exceeds exchange rate growth, traders will prefer to sell goods in the domestic market, leading to a reduction in export volume. This expectation should be observable in situations where the government strictly suppresses the exchange rate, and the free exchange rate market is pressured by the government. However, due to the illegal sale of currency in the free market and the active unofficial currency market, this effect is less observed even during times of severe exchange rate suppression. According to the results, the exchange rate did not have a significant effect on exports. However, by distinguishing this effect, it became significant when inflation was lower than the exchange rate growth at the 95% level. The change in export behavior, which was previously noted in studies such as Saboori Deylami et al. (2021), and the observation of two different inflation regimes, was acknowledged. The sign of the coefficient (-2.97) indicates that when exchange rate growth is higher than inflation during that month, the impact of the exchange rate on exports decreases. The lag parameter shows that, on average, the province’s exports are stable, and more than 80% of the changes in export value are dependent on the value of exports from the previous period.
This article is an extract from a postdoctoral research project, the contribution and role of the first author was as the project leader, and the second author was as the project guide and host.
Not applicable
The authors would like to thank Tarbiat Modares University and the National Elite Foundation
The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the University of Tarbiat Modares, The authors avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and misconduct.
The author declares no conflict of interest.
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