تحلیل اقتصادی راهبرد تغییر تاریخ کشت به‌منظور سازگاری با چالش‌های تغییر اقلیم در کشاورزی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه زراعت دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

تغییرات اقلیمی به‌عنوان یکی از چالش‌های اصلی قرن حاضر، آثار نامطلوبی بر بخش کشاورزی به‌ویژه در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک برجای گذاشته است. در این مطالعه، باهدف ارزیابی کارایی تغییر تاریخ کشت به‌عنوان روشی برای سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی، الگوهای تغییرات آب‌وهوایی آینده دشت همدان-بهار مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. ابتدا تغییرات اقلیم برای دوره آتی (2026-2050) پیش‌نگری شد. در گام بعد، عملکرد محصولات تحت شرایط اقلیمی آینده و در دو وضعیت تاریخ کشت پایه و پیشنهادی با استفاده از مدل AquaCrop شبیه‌سازی شد. در نهایت، بُعد اقتصادی موضوع با بهره‌گیری از مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی اثباتی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد که راهبرد تغییر تاریخ کشت می‌تواند نقش موثری در سازگاری با شرایط اقلیمی آینده ایفا کند. بر اساس پیش‌نگری‌ها، اقلیم آینده با کاهش بارندگی و افزایش دما همراه خواهد بود که این شرایط منجر به افت عملکرد محصولات زراعی آب‌بر می‌شود. بااین‌حال، اعمال تغییر در زمان کاشت، از طریق هم‌زمان‌سازی بهتر مراحل رشد گیاه با دوره‌های بهینه اقلیمی، موجب بهبود شرایط رشدی و در نتیجه افزایش عملکرد برای این محصولات را به همراه داشته است. تحلیل اقتصادی حاکی از آن است که تغییر تاریخ کشت می‌تواند سودآوری بخش کشاورزی را افزایش دهد و بخشی از خسارات اقتصادی ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی را جبران نماید. این یافته‌ها اهمیت تغییر تاریخ کشت به‌عنوان یک راهکار مؤثر برای سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی در بخش کشاورزی را برجسته می‌سازد و می‌تواند راهنمای مفیدی برای سیاست‌گذاران و کشاورزان در راستای کاهش آثار منفی تغییرات اقلیمی و افزایش پایداری تولیدات کشاورزی باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic Analysis of Cropping Date Adjustment Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture

نویسندگان [English]

  • Vahid Kalantar 1
  • Seyed Habibollah Mosavi 1
  • Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo 1
  • Seyed Farhad Saberali 2
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Agronomy, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Climate change, as one of the major challenges of the present century, has imposed adverse impacts on the agricultural sector, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of altering planting dates as an adaptation strategy to climate change, through analyzing future climate change patterns in the Hamadan–Bahar plain. Initially, climate changes were projected for the future period (2026–2050). Subsequently, crop yields under future climate conditions were simulated using the AquaCrop model for both baseline and proposed planting dates. Finally, the economic dimension of the issue was assessed using a Positive Mathematical Programming model. The results of this study indicated that adjusting planting dates can play an effective role in adapting to future climatic conditions. According to the projections, the future climate will be characterized by decreased precipitation and increased temperatures, which would lead to reduced yields of water-intensive crops. However, modifying the planting calendar, by better synchronizing crop growth stages with optimal climatic periods, can improve growth conditions and consequently enhance crop yields. The economic analysis showed that changing planting dates can increase agricultural profitability and compensate for a portion of the economic losses caused by climate change. These findings highlight the significance of altering planting dates as an effective adaptation strategy in the agricultural sector, and can serve as a useful guide for policymakers and farmers to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change and promote the sustainability of agricultural production.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cropping Date
  • Climate Change
  • Adaptation
  • Profitability
  • Hamaden-Bahar Plain

Extended Abstract

Introduction

Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural sustainability, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as the Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran. This study investigates the potential of cropping date adjustment as a critical adaptation strategy to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on crop yields and agricultural profitability. By analyzing future climate change scenarios and their impacts on water-intensive crops, this research aims to provide insights into the effectiveness of this adaptation measure in enhancing agricultural resilience.

Method

This research was conducted in three distinct phases. First, future climate change projections for the Hamadan-Bahar plain were generated under two scenarios: an optimistic scenario and a pessimistic scenario. The resulting climate data, encompassing changes in precipitation and temperature, were then used as inputs for agricultural simulation models. These models were employed to simulate crop yields under various cropping date adjustments. Finally, the simulated crop yields were incorporated into an enhanced regional economic model, based on Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), to assess the economic impacts of cropping date adjustments during the future period.

Results

The climate change projections revealed a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in temperature for the study region. Under the baseline cropping date scenario, crop yields were projected to decline. However, the implementation of adjusted cropping dates resulted in a substantial improvement in crop yields. Furthermore, the cultivated areas of key crops, including wheat, potato, forage maize, and sugar beet, increased under the adjusted cropping date scenarios. Consequently, the net profit of the agricultural sector in the region demonstrated a significant improvement.

Conclusions

The findings of this study highlight the effectiveness of cropping date adjustment as a viable adaptation strategy to climate change in arid and semi-arid agricultural regions. This approach, in conjunction with other adaptation measures, can contribute to enhancing agricultural sustainability and mitigating the negative impacts of climate change. The results of this study can be used as a guide for policymakers and farmers to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and increase the stability of agricultural productions.

Data Availability Statement

The data generated and analyzed during this study are available upon reasonable request from the corresponding

Ethical considerations

This research did not involve human or animal subjects. Therefore, no specific ethical approvals were required.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

REFERENCES
Abbass, K., Qasim, M. Z., Song, H., Murshed, M., Mahmood, H., & Younis, I. (2022). A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(28), 42539-42559. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19718-6
Abdalhi, M. A., Jia, Z., Luo, W., Ali, O. O., & Chen, C. (2020). Simulation of canopy cover, soil water content and yield using FAO-AquaCrop model under deficit irrigation strategies. Russian Agricultural Sciences, 46, 279-288. https://doi.org/10.3103/S106836742003012X
Adavi, Z., Tadayin, M. R. & Baghbani, A. (2019). Predicting the impact of climate change on potato production in Fereydounshahr and evaluating adaptation strategies (variety and planting date change). Isfahan University of Technology-Journal of Crop and Horticultural Production and Processing, 9(2), 79-98. (In Persian)
Afrozi, A. & Zare Abianeh, h. (2020). Investigating the agricultural water requirement under a combination of climate change scenarios, increasing irrigation efficiency, changing the cultivation pattern and developing early cultivars, case study: Hamedan-Bahar Plain. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 14(1), 61-75. (In Persian)
Ajaz, A., Taghvaeian, S., Lollato, R., Alderman, P. D., & Gowda, P. H. (2025). Gridded drought response assessment of winter wheat in Oklahoma using big data and AquaCrop-OS. Science of The Total Environment, 959, 178206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178206
Akbari, E., Darvishi Boloorani, A., Verrelst, J., Pignatti, S., Neysani Samany, N., Soufizadeh, S., & Hamzeh, S. (2024). How global sensitive is the AquaCrop model to input parameters? A case study of silage maize yield on a regional scale. Frontiers in Agronomy, 6, 1304611. https://doi.org/10.3389/fagro.2024.1304611
Al-Lami, A. A. A. A., Al-Rawi, S. S., & Ati, A. S. (2023). Evaluation of the AquaCrop model performance and the impact of future climate changes on potato production under different soil management systems. Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 54(1), 253-267. https://doi.org/10.36103/ijas.v54i1.1698
Alvar-Beltrán, J., Heureux, A., Soldan, R., Manzanas, R., Khan, B., & Dalla Marta, A. (2021). Assessing the impact of climate change on wheat and sugarcane with the AquaCrop model along the Indus River Basin, Pakistan. Agricultural Water Management, 253, 106909. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106909
Arvandi, S. (2024). The impact of climate change on investment in modern irrigation systems. Journal of Drought and Climate Change Research. (In Persian)
Asadi, E., Nasiran, A., Khodri Gharibvand, H. & Kehyani, S. (2023). Knowledge and perception of pasture users about the signs of climate change in the direction of sustainability of environmental resources (case study: villages in the central part of Najaf Abad city). Geography and Environmental Sustainability, 48(13), 13-3. (In Persian)
Babaian, E., Medirian, R., Khazanehdari, L., Karimian, M., Kozegaran, S., Kohi, M., Flamerzi, Y. & Malboosi, Sh. (2023). Rainfall prospects of Iran in the 21st century by using the statistical straw scale of the output of selected CMIP6 models by CMHyd software. Earth and Space Physics, 49(2), 431-449. (In Persian)
Bashiri Sadr, M., Akhbari, M., Faraji Rad, A. A., Abdolreza, & Borna, R. (2020). Geopolitical analysis of the effects of climate change on the sustainable development of Iran (moderating variable of political decisions). Scientific and Research Quarterly Journal of New Perspectives in Human Geography, 12(2), 133-152. (In Persian)
Baum, M. E., Licht, M. A., Huber, I., & Archontoulis, S. V. (2020). Impacts of climate change on the optimum planting date of different maize cultivars in the central US Corn Belt. European Journal of Agronomy, 119, 126101.
Borzo, F., Ramezani Edelali, H. & Kaviani, A. (2024). Effects of climate change and changing planting dates on spring wheat yield (Case study: Qazvin plain). Water Management in Agriculture, 11(1), 63-80. (In Persian)
Cui, X., & Xie, W. (2022). Adapting agriculture to climate change through growing season adjustments: Evidence from corn in China. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 104(1), 249-272.
Darzi Naftchali, A., & Karandish, F. (2016). rice cultivation management in Mazandaran province under climate change. Iranian Journal Of Water Research In Agriculture (Formerly Soil And Water Sciences), 30(3), 333-346. (In Persian)
Dastgerdi, A., Memarian, H., Pourreza Bil&i, M., Makari, M. & Agakhani Afshar A. H. (2023). Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation & temperature variables using emission scenarios (case study: Kashmir climatic region). (In Persian)
Delqandi, M., Borumand Nesab, S,. Andrzian, B. & Masah Bowani, A. R. (2016). Strategies for adapting wheat to climate change conditions (case study: Ahvaz city). Water and soil, 30(1), 300-311. (In Persian)
Ding, Y., Wang, W., Zhuang, Q., & Luo, Y. (2020). Adaptation of paddy rice in China to climate change: The effects of shifting sowing date on yield and irrigation water requirement. Agricultural Water Management, 228, 105890.
Emdad, M.R., & Tafteh, A. (2021). Comparison of DSSAT and AQUACROP Models Performance for Wheat Yield Simulation. Iranian Journal Of Irrigation And Drainage, 15(1), 223-233. (In Persian)
Emdad, M.R., Tafteh, A., & Ebrahimipak, N. (2022). Efficiency of Aquacrop Model in Simulating Yield of Quinoa in Different Deficit Irrigation Managements. Journal Of Water And Soil (Agricultural Sciences And Technology), 36(3), 319-331. (In Persian)
Eskander, S. M., & Fankhauser, S. (2020). Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from national climate legislation. Nature Climate Change, 10(8), 750-756.
Eyini Nargeseh, H., Rahimi Moghadam, S., Azizi, Qarnjik, A. & Amiri, S. R. (2024). Adaptation of rainfed winter wheat to climate change in semi-arid and cold regions using optimal planting date and supplementary irrigation. Agricultural Sciences Research in Arid Regions. (In Persian)
Flores-Marquez, R., Vera-Vílchez, J., Verástegui-Martínez, P., Lastra, S., & Solórzano-Acosta, R. (2024). An evaluation of dryland ulluco cultivation yields in the face of climate change scenarios in the Central Andes of Peru by using the Aquacrop model. Sustainability, 16(13), 5428. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16135428
Gürkan, H. (2023). Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on sunflower with aquacrop model. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(4), 933-947. https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1240401
Haddadi Barforoshi, F., Ashurloo, D., Shakiba, A., Motakan, A. A. & Aghighi, H. (2024). The effect of climate change on the vegetation phenology of Lake Urmia basin using NOAA-AVHRR image time series. Iranian Journal of Remote Sensing and GIS, 16(1), 1-14. (In Persian)
Hadi, M., Hashemkhani, M. & Irvani, E. (2022). Analysis of scientific research trends in the field of climate change in Iran. Health and Environment, 15(2), 361-378. (In Persian)
Haghnazari, Farzad, Ghanbarian, Mahshid, Sheini Dashtegol, ali, & Varnaseri Ghandali, Vida. (2020). Evaluation of sugarcane yield affected as irrigation level and fertilizer by using Aquacrop model. Journal Of Crop Science Research In Arid Regions, 2(1), 87-95. (In Persian)
Hayat Al-Ghayb Moghaddam, S. H., & Sadat Ashofte, P. (2019). Optimal management of surface water resources with WEAP: Considering the Bayesian approach due to climate change. Iranian Soil and Water Research, 50(2), 495-504. (In Persian)
Hoseini, S. M., Khoshravesh, M., Gholami Sefidkouhi, M. A., & Norooz-Valashedi, R. (2025). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Planting Date under IPCC’s Sixth Report Scenarios on Pea Performance Using the AquaCrop Model. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture.
Jafari, A., Bi Hamta, M. R., Maqbal M., Sufizadeh, S., Bazgir, S. & Karimi Ahmedabad, M. (2024). The effect of planting date and variety on growth stages, morphological traits, growth indices and yield of seed corn in Karaj city. Beh Zra'i Kazwarsi (Abourihan Campus Agricultural Journal), 26(1): 17-34. (In Persian)
Jin, X., Li, Z., Feng, H., Ren, Z., & Li, S. (2020). Estimation of maize yield by assimilating biomass and canopy cover derived from hyperspectral data into the AquaCrop model. Agricultural Water Management, 227, 105846.
Kalantar,V., Mosavi,S. H., Ebadi, M. T., Soltani, S. and Nemati Shishehgaran, N. (2025). Economic Assessment of Saffron Cultivation within the Framework of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies. Saffron Agronomy and Technology, 13(2), 125-139. https://doi.org/10.22048/jsat.2025.530222.1566
Kalantar,V., Mosavi, S. H. and Najafi Alamdarlo, H. (2025). A Strategic Approach to Water Resource Efficiency and Sustainable Agriculture in Arid Regions: The Role of Oleaster. Agricultural Economics and Development, 33(2), 197-238. https://doi.org/10.30490/aead.2025.367411.1667
Kamkar, B., Alaei Bazkiai, P., Alizadeh Dehkordi, P. & Amiri, E. (2022). Investigating changes in yield and water balance of rice in Gilan province under the influence of climate change. Environmental Science Quarterly, 20(2), 61-80. (In Persian)
Karrari Gharehbagh, Sh., Najafi Alamdarloo, H., Khalilian, S. & Delavar, M. (2023). Agro-Economic Survey on Quantitative and Qualitative Changes of Irrigation Water in Urmia Plain of Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 1: 89-130. (In Persian)
Kawasaki, K. (2019). Two harvests are better than one: double cropping as a strategy for climate change adaptation. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 101(1), 172-192.
Khalaj, F. A. & Nasri, M. (2019). Investigating the yield and quality traits of some alfalfa cultivars in different harvest dates. Agricultural researches in the edge of the desert. (In Persian)
Khalili, R., Hekmatzadeh A. A., Panahi H. R. & Muntsari H. (2022). Investigating the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation using the LARS-WG model (case study of Bashar River watershed). Environmental Research and Technology, 7(12): 129-142. (In Persian)
Khan Salari, S. & Mohammadi, S. A. (2023). Forecasting of extreme precipitation in Iran based on the Hamadi approach of CMIP6 models in the near future (2050-2026) with rank-based weighting. Physics of Earth and Space, 49(3), 727-746.
Khan, H., Khan, N., Khan, Z., Yingchun, H., Beifang, Y., Yaping, L., ... & Li, Y. (2025). Water and heat resource utilization influence cotton yield through sowing date optimization under varied climate. Agricultural Water Management, 313, 109491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109491
Kheir, A. M., Alkharabsheh, H. M., Seleiman, M. F., Al-Saif, A. M., Ammar, K. A., Attia, A., ... & Schillaci, C. (2021). Calibration and validation of AQUACROP and APSIM models to optimize wheat yield and water saving in arid regions. Land, 10(12), 1375. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10121375
Khichar, M. L., & Niwas, R. (2006). Microclimatic profiles under different sowing environments in wheat. Journal of Agrometeorology, 8(2), 201-209.
Kumar, N., Poonia, V., Gupta, B. B., & Goyal, M. K. (2021). A novel framework for risk assessment and resilience of critical infrastructure towards climate change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 165, 120532.
Lee, M., Kim, H., Lee, J. Y., Yang, J. E., & Lim, C. (2022). A shift towards integrated and adaptive water management in South Korea: Building resilience against climate change. Water Resources Management, 36(5), 1611-1625.
Li, N., Li, Y., Yang, Q., Biswas, A., & Dong, H. (2024). Simulating climate change impacts on cotton using AquaCrop model in China. Agricultural Systems, 216, 103897. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.103897
Li, Y., Li, N., Javed, T., Pulatov, A. S., & Yang, Q. (2024). Cotton yield responses to climate change and adaptability of sowing date simulated by AquaCrop model. Industrial Crops and Products, 212, 118319.
Lou, S. W., Dong, H. Z., Tian, X. L., & Tian, L. W. (2021). The" short, dense and early" cultivation of cotton in Xinjiang: history, current situation and prospect.
Majdami, m. & Barhani, a. (2021). Investigating the effect of planting date on yield, yield components and growth indices in some varieties and lines of barley in Khuzestan region. Journal of Crop and Plant Sciences, 11(1), 113-131. (In Persian)
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., ... & Zhou, B. (2021). Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2(1), 2391.
MAJO. (2023). Ministry of Agriculture Jihad Organization. Agricultural Statistics Yearbook 2023. Tehran: Ministry of Agriculture Jihad.
Moazzezi, F., Yavari, Gh.R., Mosavi, S.H., & Bagheri, M. (2020). assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in Hamedan-Bahar plain with emphasis on water productivity and food security. Journal Of Economics And Agriculture Development, 34(3), 305-323. (In Persian)
Movahedi, R., Qadri Moqtadar, N., Bilali, H. & Shirkhani, M. (2019). Factors affecting farmers' skills in optimal use of agricultural water resources in Bahar city, Hamadan province. Agricultural Education Management Research, 10(47), 15-35. (In Persian)
Mohammadi, N., Sari-Saraf, B. & Rostamzadeh, H. (2023). Study of the trend and spatial analysis of the continuity of warm and cold periods based on SSPs scenarios in northwestern Iran. Scientific Journal System, 10(3), 183-204.
Motaghed, M., Asadi, A., Shabanali Femi, H. & Kalantari, Kh. (2022). Studying farmers' semantic understanding of climate change in small-scale exploitation units in Hamadan province. Local development (rural-urban), 14(1), 233-253. (In Persian)
Nazari, R., Ramezani Etedali, H. & Daneshkar Arasteh, P. (2022). Evaluation of Maize yield and Water Footprint Variability by AquaCrop-GIS Model. Iranian Journal of Remote Sensing & GIS, 14(1): 43-58. (In Persian)
Nemati Shishehgaran, N., Babaian, K. & Mianabadi, H. (2024). Assessing the uncertainty of monthly precipitation by using GCMs and quantitative map skew correction methods. Water and Irrigation Management, 14(2), 463-486. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22059/jwim.2024.369044.1121
Neysi, Karim, Egdernezhad, Aslan, & Abbasi, Fariborz. (2023). evaluation of aquacrop model for corn simulation under different management of nitrogen fertilizer in Karaj. Water And Soil Management And Modeling (Wsmm), 3(1), 26-41. (In Persian)
Nunes, H. G. G. C., Farias, V. D. S., Sousa, D. P., Costa, D. L. P., Pinto, J. V. N., Moura, V. B.,... & Souza, P. J. O. P. (2021). Parameterization of the AquaCrop model for cowpea and assessing the impact of sowing dates normally used on yield. Agricultural Water Management, 252, 106880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106880
Oliaei, Mohammad Sadegh, Fasihi, Javad, Sepehrian, Hamid, & Almassi, Ziaeddin. (2018). urban development and pollution of groundwater resources (Case Study: Hamadan–Bahar Plain). Environmental Sciences, 15(4), 101-112. (In Persian)
OULHACI, D. (2024). Determination of water needs using the Cropwat and Aquacrop models for some crops in arid regions (Touggourt and Ouargla).
Pahloozadeh, A., Alemzadeh Ansari, N., Bahremand, N. & Mortazavi, M.H. (2018). The Effect Of Growth Retardants And Planting Date On Some Characteristics Of The Transplant, Plant And Fruit Of Tomato. Journal Of Crop Production And Processing, 8(1), 127-140. (In Persian)
Paul, S., Chakraborty, D., Padaria, R., & Tripathi, A. K. (2023). A comparison between climate change perceptions and meteorological observations to improve the understanding of adaptation decisions in shifting cultivation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 153(3), 1139-1155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04521-1
Pazoki, Alireza, Karaminejad, Mohammad, & Foladi Targhi, Alireza. (2011). effects of planting dates and genotypes on yield of Saffron (Crocus Sativus L.) In Natanz Region. Crop Physiology, 2(8), 3-12. (In Persian)
Pesarkalo, A., Biabani, A., Yarahamdi, S., Saberi, A. R. naeimi, m. & Tallai, F. (2023). The effect of planting date on yield and quality characteristics of autumn sugar beet cultivars in Gonbad Kavus region. Plant Ecophysiology Applied Research, 7(13), 93-110. (In Persian)
Qamari, a., Khorrami Wafa, m., Nosrati, e. & Zulnouriyan, H. (2022). The effect of planting date on the yield of two potato cultivars in the climatic conditions of Kermanshah. Iranian Plant Sciences, 53(4), 149-164. (In Persian)
Raes, D., Fereres, E., Vila, M. G., Curnel, Y., Knoden, D., Çelik, S. K., ... & Wellens, J. (2023). Simulation of alfalfa yield with AquaCrop. Agricultural Water Management, 284, 108341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108341
Rahbani, M. P. (2024). A comprehensive review of the Sixth Report on Climate Change and drawing modeled pathways to limit global warming. Taagh, 4(9), 16-25. (In Persian)
Raihan, A. (2023). A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and mitigation options in the socio-economic and environmental sectors. Journal of Environmental Science and Economics, 2(3), 36-58.
Ramezani, M., Babazadeh, H., & Sarai Tabrizi, M. (2019). Simulating Barley Yield under Different Irrigation Levels by using AquaCrop Model. Irrigation Sciences And Engineering (Jise) (Scientific Journal Of Agriculture), 41(4), 161-172. (In Persian)
Rao, K. N., Gadgil, S., Rao, P. S., & Savithri, K. (2000). Tailoring strategies to rainfall variability–The choice of the sowing window. Current Science, 1216-1230.
Raoufi, R. S., & Soufizadeh, S. (2020). Simulation of the impacts of climate change on phenology, growth, and yield of various rice genotypes in humid sub-tropical environments using AquaCrop-Rice. International Journal of Biometeorology, 64, 1657-1673. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01946-5
Rezaei, H., Pashapour, H. A. & Sadeghi, F. (2024). Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models and forecasting temperature and precipitation changes under common socio-economic trajectory (SSP) scenarios in Iran. Strategic Futures Studies Quarterly, 3(10), 7-30.
Rezaie, B., Hosseinpanahi, F., Siosemardeh, A., Darand, M., & Bannayan, M. (2022). Shifting the sowing date of winter wheat as a strategy for adaptation to climate change in a Mediterranean-type environment. International Journal of Plant Production, 16(4), 595-610. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42106-022-00202-7
Rosero, A., Granda, L., Berdugo-Cely, J. A., Šamajová, O., Šamaj, J., & Cerkal, R. (2020). A dual strategy of breeding for drought tolerance and introducing drought-tolerant, underutilized crops into production systems to enhance their resilience to water deficiency. Plants, 9(10), 1263. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants9101263
Rouhani, Siavash, Peykani Machiani, Gh.R., & Taghdiri, B. (2007). determination of optimum cropping pattern with the emphasis on sustain ability of water resources: A Case Study In Bahar Plain- Hamedan. Agricultural Research, 7(1), 85-96. (In Persian)
Saadati, Z., Delbari, M., Panahi, M., Amiri, E., Rahimian, M. H. & Qudsi, M. (2016). Evaluation of the effects of climate change on the growth period and evapotranspiration of wheat using the CERES-Wheat model (case study: Mashhad). Science of Water and Soil, 26 (No. 3, Section 1), 67-79. (In Persian)
Saber Ali, S. F. (2023). Response of growth and yield of winter wheat to planting date and amount of nitrogen consumption. To Agro Agriculture, 25(2), 405-418. (In Persian)
Sadeghi, B., Farhadi Bansouleh, B., Bafkar, A., & Ghobadi, M. (2022). effect of planting date on yield and water productivity of sunflower using Aquacrop model. Journal Of Water And Soil (Agricultural Sciences And Technology), 36(2), 185-196. (In Persian)
Salarieh, P., Khoshroosh, M., Norouz Valashdi, R. & Kiani, A. A. (2021). Investigating the effect of climate change and planting date on corn yield using the WOFOST model. Iranian Soil and Water Research, 52(10), 2515-2527. (In Persian)
Salarieh, P., Khoshrosh, M., Norouz Valashdi, R. & Kiani, A. (2024). Evaluation of climate change scenarios and cropping date changes on corn water productivity in Gorgan County. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 18(2), 227-235. (In Persian)
Salimi, M., Hosseinpour, M. & Dodangeh, B. (2023). Investigating the importance of renewable energies in a successful energy transition in Iran based on the SWOT management analysis model. Journal of Renewable and New Energies, 10(1), 97-109. (In Persian)
Sarabi, M., Dasturani, M. T. & Zarrin, A. (2021). The effect of future climate change on the hydrological response in the Mashhad Torag Dam watershed. Journal of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, 3(4), 310-330.
Sari Saraf, B., Bayati Khatibi, M. & Faraji, M. (2024). Data mining of the role of air pollutants (nitrate and nitrite oxide) in temperature and precipitation changes of Tabriz synoptic station using multi-layer perceptron neural network machine learning and logistic regression. Ecohydrology, 11(2), 223-248. (In Persian)
Sari Saraf, B., Rostamzadeh, H. & Mohammadi, N. (2023). Studying the trend and forecasting of temperature changes using CMIP6 models in northwest Iran. Climatological Research, 1402(54), 87-104. (In Persian)
Seidan, S. M., & Sadeghi, M. (2022). The effect of irrigation water salinity and production factors on potato yield in Hamedan, Bahar Plain. Environmental Research and Technology, 7(11), 27–35. (In Persian)
Sha, J., Li, X., & Wang, Z. L. (2019). Estimation of future climate change in cold weather areas with the LARS-WG model under CMIP5 scenarios. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(3), 3027–3039. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02781-4
Shabani, M. K., Abedi Kopaei, J., Eslamian, S. S. & Gohari, S. A. (2023). The effect of changing cropping patterns and improving the efficiency of irrigation systems on reducing groundwater withdrawals under climate change scenarios (Case study: Kavar Plain). Irrigation Science and Engineering, 46(1), 47-63. (In Persian)
Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody, M., Azadi, H., Ahangarkolaee, S. S., Fauconnier, M. L., Grahić, J., & Sklenička, P. (2023). Water shortage and optimal pattern of field cropping cultivation: Addressing economic and environmental concerns in Qazvin Plain, Iran. Journal of Cleaner Production, 399, 136512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136512
Shahbazi Kia, S., Ghorbani Dashtaki, Sh., Yarahamdi, J., Estwari, Y. & Mirzaei, S. (2023). Forecasting changes in precipitation and temperature of Tabriz synoptic station during the period of 2020-2100. Climatology Research, 1401(52), 125-142. (In Persian)
Shahinejad, B., Kakav&, A., Yonesi, H. & Yousefi, H. (2022). Downscaling of Precipitation & Temperature Using CanESM2 Model Based on RCP Scenarios (case study: Horrood River). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY, 9(3), 657-673. (In Persian)
Shakeri Bostan Abad, R., Rafiee, H., & Haji Mirza, H. (2018). Investigating the role of risk grouping in analyzing the effects of government policies on the cultivation pattern of Nahavand and Bahar in Hamedan Province. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 49(4), 607–619. https://doi.org/10.1001.1.20084838.1397.49.4.4.0
Sharifi, A. (2021). Co-benefits and synergies between urban climate change mitigation and adaptation measures: A literature review. Science of the total environment, 750, 141642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141642
Sivakumar, M. (2021). Climate change, agriculture adaptation, and sustainability. Climate resilience and environmental sustainability approaches: Global Lessons and Local Challenges, 87-109.
Soleimani Sardo, F. & Misbahzadeh, T. (2021). Forecasting temperature & precipitation using climate change scenarios & statistical exponential microscale models (case study: southern Kerman province). Environmental Research, 11(22), 97-110. (In Persian)
Soltani, Sh., Mousavi, S. H. A., Khalilian, p. & Najafi Alamdarlu, h. (2023). Evaluation of the effects of climatic changes and fluctuations on the economic surplus of producers and consumers of the agricultural sector in Hamadan-Bahar plain. Economic Research and Agricultural Development of Iran, 54(1), 53-72. (In Persian)
Sun, G. Q., Li, L., Li, J., Liu, C., Wu, Y. P., Gao, S., ... & Feng, G. L. (2022). Impacts of climate change on vegetation pattern: Mathematical modeling and data analysis. Physics of Life Reviews, 43, 239-270.
Thompson, M., Gamage, D., Hirotsu, N., Martin, A., & Seneweera, S. (2017). Effects of elevated carbon dioxide on photosynthesis and carbon partitioning: a perspective on root sugar sensing and hormonal crosstalk. Frontiers in Physiology, 8, 578. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2017.00578
Umesh, B., Reddy, K. S., Polisgowdar, B. S., Maruthi, V., Satishkumar, U., Ayyanagoudar, M. S., ... & Veeresh, H. (2022). Assessment of climate change impact on maize (Zea mays L.) through aquacrop model in semi-arid alfisol of southern Telangana. Agricultural Water Management, 274, 107950.
Vaez Madani, M.A., Fakheri Fard, A., & Majnooni Heris, A. (2019). Using Combined AquaCrop Model and Thomas-Fering Method in Analyzing Rainfed Wheat Yield. Water And Soil Science (Agricultural Science), 29(3), 95-108. (In Persian)
Wale, A., Dessie, M., & Kendie, H. (2022). Evaluating the performance of AquaCrop model for potato production under deficit irrigation. Air, Soil and Water Research, 15, 11786221221108216.
Wang, X., Folberth, C., Skalsky, R., Wang, S., Chen, B., Liu, Y., ... & Balkovic, J. (2022). Crop calendar optimization for climate change adaptation in rice-based multiple cropping systems of India and Bangladesh. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 315, 108830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108830
Wellens, J., Raes, D., Fereres, E., Diels, J., Coppye, C., Adiele, J. G., ... & Heng, L. K. (2022). Calibration and validation of the FAO AquaCrop water productivity model for cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz). Agricultural Water Management, 263, 107491.
Wu, H., Yue, Q., Guo, P., Xu, X., & Huang, X. (2022). Improving the AquaCrop model to achieve direct simulation of evapotranspiration under nitrogen stress and joint simulation-optimization of irrigation and fertilizer schedules. Agricultural Water Management, 266, 107599. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107599
Xie, Z., Kong, J., Tang, M., Luo, Z., Li, D., Liu, R., ... & Zhang, C. (2023). Modelling winter rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) growth and yield under different sowing dates and densities using AquaCrop model. Agronomy, 13(2), 367.
Zarrin, A. & Dadashi Rudbari, A. A. (2021). Forecasting Iran's temperature in the near future (2021-2040) based on CMIP6 multi-model approach. Natural Geography Research, 53(1), 75-90. (In Persian)
Zarrin, A., Dadashi-Roudbari, A. & Hassani, S. (2021). Historical variability and future changes in seasonal extreme temperature over Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 146, 1227-1248. (In Persian)
Zhai, Y., Huang, M., Zhu, C., Xu, H., & Zhang, Z. (2022). Evaluation and application of the AquaCrop model in simulating soil salinity and winter wheat yield under saline water irrigation. Agronomy, 12(10), 2313.
Zhang, C., Gao, J., Liu, L., & Wu, S. (2024). Simulating the effects of optimizing sowing date and variety shift on maize production at finer scale in northeast China under future climate. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 104(6), 3637-3647. https://doi.org/10.1002/jsfa.13247
Zhang, C., Xie, Z., Wang, Q., Tang, M., Feng, S., & Cai, H. (2022). AquaCrop modeling to explore optimal irrigation of winter wheat for improving grain yield and water productivity. Agricultural Water Management, 266, 107580.
Zhang, Z., Li, Y., Chen, X., Wang, Y., Niu, B., Li Liu, D., ... & Meng, Q. (2023). Impact of climate change and planting date shifts on growth and yields of double cropping rice in southeastern China in future. Agricultural Systems, 205, 103581. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103581