الگوی بهینه کشت با فرض عدم قطعیت و استفاده از مدلهای برنامه ریزی ریاضی و آرمانی فازی(مطالعه موردی شهرستان سقز)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ابوالفضل محمودی ¹
• داوود امین پور ²
• غلامرضا یاوری ³
• فرید اجلالی ⁴
• افسانه نیکوکار ⁵

¹ گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران ،ایران

² گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی،دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران ، ایران

³ دانشکده اقتصاد، حسابداری و مدیریت،دانشگاه یزد، یزد ،ایران

⁴ گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران ایران

⁵ گروه کشاورزی،دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران ایران

چکیده

کلیدواژه‌ها

• الگوی کشت
• برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی
• برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی
• سطح زیرکشت

موضوعات

• اقتصاد کشاورزی، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، توسعه پایدار ، توسعه روستایی ، کارآفرینی و ....

Extended Abstract

Introduction

Today, with the constraints of water and cultivable land, as well as environmental and health issues related to the use of fertilizers and chemical pesticides in agriculture, optimal management of cropping patterns seems necessary. This can lead to cost reduction, maintenance or increase in farmers' income, and minimize the use of production inputs, especially water, various fertilizers, and chemical pesticides. The design of an optimal cropping pattern should consider water consumption, economic indicators, types of required products, profitability of products, and environmental preservation. It can also increase the efficiency of essential production resources such as water, soil, human resources, machinery, and other inputs, and provide the highest income for farmers. Therefore, the present research aims to optimize the cropping pattern in three different scenarios for the Saqqez county, using single-objective and multi-objective fuzzy ideal planning methods.

Research Method

Among the agricultural products of the county, seven products were considered as main products for determining the optimal cultivation area. These products, including wheat, barley, potatoes, alfalfa, sugar beets, and forage corn, constitute the major and main part of all agricultural products cultivated in Saqqez county. The required information was obtained from the management of the Agricultural Jihad and Natural Resources and also the management of water resources in Saqqez county. In each scenario, different weights have been considered for maximizing gross income, minimizing water consumption, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides. So that in each scenario, the goals are aligned with different weights towards the overall goals of preserving water, environmental, and economic resources. In this research, GAMS and EXCEL software have been used for data analysis and mathematical planning.

Fuzzy set theory is a mathematical theory for modeling uncertainty and uncertainty, and is one of the most useful approaches that enables the expression and consideration of these uncertainties (Amini, 1392). Over the past few decades, this theory has been widely embraced by researchers and scientific communities, and has had numerous applications in various aspects of agricultural planning and farm management. It is generally the most common method for discussing and analyzing uncertainties in group decision-making and multi-criteria analysis (Amini, 1392). In a fuzzy decision-making environment, the decision maker's goals are always expressed in a fuzzy manner, and resource constraints may also be expressed in a fuzzy or definite manner.

Results

The results show that in all three scenarios, the optimal state compared to the current state, the levels under cultivation decrease by 8.14%, 2.14%, and 2.14% respectively. In the fuzzy ideal pattern in the first scenario, where a higher weight is considered for the ideal increase in gross income, gross income decreases by 5.0%, which, considering its negligible amount, can be said that gross income is largely preserved. Also, water consumption, fertilizer consumption, and chemical pesticide consumption have decreased by 7.10%, 1.11%, and 8.12% respectively, indicating a desirable change towards the ideals. In this scenario, the area under cultivation of wheat, barley, canola, alfalfa, and forage corn decreases by 5.13%, 66%, 4.21%, 8.12%, and 7.76% respectively, while on the other hand, the area under cultivation of sugar beets and potatoes increases by 4.1% and 6.83% respectively. In the second scenario, where the weight of the ideal of reducing water consumption is increased, gross income decreases by 4.19%. Also, water consumption, fertilizer consumption, and chemical pesticide consumption have decreased by 7.20%, 18%, and 3.14% respectively in the direction of the desired ideals. In this scenario, the area under cultivation of wheat, alfalfa, and forage corn decreases by 1.24%, 3.25%, and 2.23% respectively, while on the other hand, the area under cultivation of barley, sugar beets, canola, and potatoes increases by 4.8%, 8.38%, 16.5%, and 8.1% respectively. In the third scenario, with an increase in the importance coefficient of reducing fertilizer and chemical pesticide consumption, the income decreases by 33%. Also, water consumption, fertilizer consumption, and chemical pesticide consumption have decreased by 2.17%, 6.52%, and 1.27% respectively. In the third scenario, the area under cultivation of wheat, sugar beets, potatoes, and alfalfa decreases by 8.58%, 6.1%, 7.7%, and 39.2% respectively, while on the other hand, the area under cultivation of barley, canola, and forage corn increases by 1.220%, 1.12%, and 9.132% respectively.

Conclusion

Based on the results obtained in all three scenarios, the total cultivated area in the optimal state decreases compared to the current state. Therefore, alongside achieving the research goals, significant amounts of land are freed up and can be allocated to cultivating new crops that align with major economic and environmental objectives. The choice of optimal cultivation pattern depends on the primary goal and agricultural policies of the region. Therefore, if the goals are in line with economic policies and increasing farmers' income, scenario one is recommended; if the main goal is to conserve water resources and reduce water consumption, scenario two is recommended; and finally, if the policies are aimed at environmental conservation and health, scenario three is suggested. Therefore, it is recommended to select the optimal cultivation model based on the priority of each economic scenario, environmental conservation, and water consumption reduction.