Discriminant Function of the Factors Determining the Farmers' Resilience to Climate Changes (Case Study: Farmers in Ghezel Ozan River Basin, Zanjan Province)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD. Student, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

4 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

Abstract

ABSTRACT
The present study investigates the role of demographic-personal factors and livelihood capitals on the evolution of farmers' resilience to climate change in the Ghezel Ozan River basin located in Zanjan Province. For this purpose, a survey method was used. The statistical population of the study was 36281 farmers living in the studied area. Using Morgan and Krejcie's random sampling table and stratified random sampling method with proportional allocation, 384 farmers were selected as the statistical sample. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire the reliability of which was determined by Cronbach's alpha method. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.705-0.865, which reflects the optimal reliability of the questionnaire. The step by step diagnostic analysis technique was used for data analysis. The results of the diagnostic analysis showed that the variables of human capital, the years of agricultural work experience, economic capital, physical capital and finally, the social capital are influential on categorizing the farmers in terms of their climate change resilience. Generally, it can be said that the prediction accuracy of the model is about 67.2%. For future studies, it is suggested to consider the impact of external factors such as government policies, mass media and market-driven institutional and cognitive factors.

Keywords

Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 15 June 2021

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