Discriminant Function of the Factors Determining the Farmers' Resilience to Climate Changes (Case Study: Farmers in Ghezel Ozan River Basin, Zanjan Province)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Seyede Somaye Bathaiy ¹
• Mohammad Chizari ¹
• Hasaan Sadighi ²

¹ Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

² Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Keywords

• Resilience to Climate Change
• livelihood capitals
• Personal-Demographic Factors
• Discriminant Analysis
• Ghezel Ozan River
• Zanjan Province

Extended Abstract

Objectives

    Climate change is one of the most important issues in the world today. This phenomenon is of utmost importance for the firms and industries such as agriculture that depend on natural resources and are of a weak economy. As one of the most important factors of the rural communities, the behaviors and decisions of farmers are influenced by many factors. Some of these factors are the personal-demographic factors, and the other part is the factors that occur outside the personal level and at the community level. These factors are referred to as livelihoods capitals or assets. The importance of these assets in the Third World countries is such that understanding the farmers' behaviors is only possible through understanding the fundamentals governing livelihood capitals. Therefore, in this study, we tried to investigate the effect of demographic-personal factors and livelihood capitals of farmers on categorizing their behaviors in terms of their resilience to climate change.

Methods

   The statistical population of the present study is 36281 farmers working in the basin of Ghezel Ozan River in Zanjan Province, Iran. According to Morgan and Krejcie's random sampling table, 384 farmers were selected by stratified random sampling with proportional allocation. The research tool was a researcher-made questionnaire the face validity of which was confirmed by a panel of expert professors from the Agricultural Extension and Education Group of Tarbiate Modarres University of Tehran as well as Agricultural Jihad experts of the Zanjan Province, and its reliability was analyzed through Cronbach's alpha. Cronbach's alpha values ranged between 0.709 and 0.865 indicating the optimal reliability of the questionnaire. Diagnostic analysis was used to analyze the data.

Results

   The results showed that among the variables studied in this study, five variables, i.e. human capital, economic capital, agricultural work experience, social capital, and finally physical capital have the most significant impacts on the dependent variable of resilience to climate change in farmers. In contrast, variables such as age, natural capital, years of education, number of family members, land acreage, and the number of livestock, have no effect on categorizing the farmers based on their resilience. Human, social, and physical capitals have positive and significant effects on discriminant function. Economic capital and agricultural work experience have negative and significant effects.

Discussion

    Given that human capital is the most effective factor in differentiating the dependent variable of resilience to climate change, it is very important to have access to information and training to adopt resilient behavior. The adverse and significant effect of agricultural work experience on resilient behavior shows that farmers become more conservative when their experience is increased, and less willing to make and show resilient decisions and behaviors. Perhaps one of the reasons is the unsuccessful experiences they have had in making such decisions in the past. Therefore, it is recommended to pay more attention to this group when conducting promotional classes and meetings as well as presenting promotional incentives to the same group. Also, as the economic capital increases, the farmers’ resilience to climate change is decreased. This can be attributed to the fact that as economic capital increases, the perceived risk of climate change decreases, and as a result, resiliency in behavior is decreased. Given the low average economic capital of farmers, the government should provide the farmers with the necessary facilities for showing higher resiliency. It is therefore suggested that farmers receive government’s non-cash subsidies and facilities, or in case of cash payments, their use should be specified in advance, and the process receives adequate monitoring. Improving the level of physical capitals by providing the necessary infrastructures for processing and storage of crops, as well as the infrastructures required for water management, can increase the farmers' resilience to climate change. Furthermore, by enhancing the social capitals among farmers, they can be provided with the potential for showing resilient behaviors to climate changes.