Scenarios of the Next Decade for National Cooperatives Economy System

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D Candidate For Futures Studies Management, Supreme University of National Defence, Tehran, Iran

2 Faculty Member, University of Allameh Tabatabaei, Tehran, Iran

3 Faculty Member, Supreme University of National Defence, Tehran, Iran

4 Faculty Member, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

For a number of reasons, including more compliance with the religious democratic system and inconsistency with the criteria of the capitalistic economic system, in Islamic revolution, the cooperative sector could well receive increased attention on the part of the economic activists. Also, in the pursuit, a great effort has been made for further strength of the sector This research was an attempt to develop scenarios for the future of cooperatives economy system in Iran. To do this, scenario development method was used. The data was gathered through a review of available documents and articles as well as interviews with 18 experts with a very good command of cooperatives economy. Regarding that the national economy is currently dominated by the government, the key identified uncertainties for cooperative economy included: Whether the government supports or not and whether people embrace or not. Considering the two- sided nature of the uncertainties, four scenarios could be conceived. Scenario­1 as the most desirable one to occur for cooperative economy in the next decade was metaphorically named: climb of cooperatives. In scenario 2, absence of willingness in people, as the major factor responsible for the growth of cooperatives, would result in the gradual decline or “descend of cooperatives“. Under scenario 3, in spite of absence of supports by the government, popular willingness causes cooperatives to experience a gradual growth (take off) in short-term and an increasing trend in long term. Scenario 4 which is less likely to occur as compared to the other scenarios, would lead to the collapse (crash) of cooperatives in Iran. In order to manipulate the uncertainties for a better result, general and specific solutions were provided to bring the Cooperatives Economy System closer to the intended vision for the next decade and prevention from undesirable ones.

Keywords

References

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Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research
Volume 51, Issue 4
November 2020
Pages 797-816

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