Analyzing the Agricultural Drought Risk Management Solutions in Lorestan Province; Using Fuzzy Delphi Technique

Document Type : Research Paper


1 M.Sc student in rural development, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran

2 Assistant Prof., Agricultural Economics and Rural Development Dep., Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran

3 Assistant Prof., management Dep., Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran


One of the crises in Iranian agriculture sector is drought and identfying the risk management solutions for this problem are a necessity. The purpose of this research is analyzing the agricultural drought risk management strategies by fuzzy Delphi method that a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods was performed. The statistical population of the research consisted of key experts including subject mater related administrators and specialists of state organizations in Lorestan province. 20 of them were selected as sample using chain purposfull sampling. This research uses the risk and crisis cycle model by whilhite which risk management solutions fall into three categories: "reduction", "planning" and "monitoring and forecasting". The results showed that the most important priority in the reduction step was watershed management and aquifer development; at the planning step, preparation and implementation of the Land use Planning and In the step of monitoring and forecasting, establishing warning systems.based on results land use planning,adjusting the Cropping patern,international and regional collaboration for reinforcement of warning systems and drought monitoring and training and continous training to related  practioners was recommended.


  1. Akrami, M., Fatehi Maraj, A., & Barkhordari, G. (2015). Evaluation of agricultural agricultural drought vulnerability in dry and semi-arid climates using GIS and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Case Study of Yazd Taft Township. 5(20): 107-115 (In Farsi).
  2. Amiri Yarahmadi, B., Dizavandi Sabet, L. & Nemati, J. (2004). Drought and water crisis management solutions in Lorestan province. Proceedings of Lorestan Province Meteorological Services. (In Farsi).
  3. Amirkhani, S., Chizari, M., & Hossini, S.M. (2010). Investigating the Factors Affecting the Type of Farm Management in Drought (A Case Study of Wheat Farmers in Varamin County). Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 2(43), 2-23. (In Farsi).
  4. Asadi Nalivan,O., Rostamikhalaj,M., Mohseni Saravi,M.& Sour,A. (2015) "Prioritization of watershed management in watershed using TOPSIS method (case study: Zeidht-Taleghan). Journal of Watershed Management. (12), 94-107. (In Farsi).
  5. Azar, A. & Faraji, H. (2002). Fuzzy management science, Tehran, Ejtema Publication, First ed, Tehran, Iran p 48 (In Farsi).
  6. Carrão, H., Naumann,G &Barbosa,P. (2016). Mapping global patterns of drought risk : An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 39, 108–124.
  7. Cavatassia, R., Lipperb, L., & Narlochc, N. (2011). Modern variety adoption and risk management in drought prone areas: insights from the sorghum farmers of eastern Ethiopia, Agricultural Economics, 42, 279–292.
  8. Chisadza, B., J. Tumbare, M.Nhapi, I. & R. Nyabeze, W. (2013), "Useful traditional knowledge indicators for drought forecasting in the Mzingwane Catchment area of Zimbabwe", Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 22 No. 4, pp. 312-325.
  9. Fatehi Maraj, A., & Hosseini Husseinabad, F. (2012). Dairy Diversity Management Program for Pilot

10. Gholami, M., Ali Beygi, A. M., & Savari, M. (2015). Phenomenology of farmers' perception of drought (Case study: Sarpol-e Zahab city). Iranian Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 46(3), 439-456. (In Farsi).

11. Gravity, P., & Ali Beygi, A. M. (2011). Identification of agricultural risk management determinants: A survey of farmers in Kermanshah. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Research, 46(3): 439-456 (In Farsi).

12. IPCC, 2014 - Climate Change. (2014) Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (Eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

13. IPCC. (2014a). Climate change: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III.

14. IPCC. (2014b). Climate change: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

15. Jafari, F., Shaban Ali Fami, H., & Daneshvar Ameri, J. (2015). Investigating and analyzing the amount of drought-response operations by Farmers of Tarom Province, Iran, Economic Research and Development, 46(1), 42-35. (In Farsi).

16. Jia, H. & Pan, .D (2016). Drought Risk Assessment in Yunnan Province of China Based on Wavelet Analysis. Advances in Meteorology, Volume 2016, Article ID 1579415, 10 pages .avalible in:

17. Keshavarz, M., & Karami, E. (2014). Farmers decision making process under drought, Journal of Arid Environments. 108C (2014) 43–56.

18. Pittman, J., Wittrock, V., & Wheaton, E. (2011). Vulnerability to climate change in rural Saskatchewan: Case study of the Rural Municipality of Rudy No. 284, Journal of Rural Studies. 27(1), 83- 94.

19. Reed, .M.S., Podesta G. P.&    Fazey, I. (2013). Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options, Ecological Economics 94:66-77,

20. Rezaei, R. (2012). Identifying and analysing the drought mitigation strategies in Zanjan rural areas agriculture Jihad experts’ viewpoint. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research. 43(2). 125-134 (In Farsi).

21. Santos J. R, Pagsuyoin, S. T., Herrera, L. C., Tan, R. R., &Yu, K. D. (2014). Analysis of drought risk management strategies using dynamic inoperability input–output modeling and event tree analysis. Published online: Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014. Environment Systems and Decision. 34, 492–506.

22. Sayers, P.B., Yuanyuan, L., Moncrieff, C., Jianqiang, L., Tickner, D., Gang, L., & Speed, R. (2017). Strategic drought risk management: eight ‘golden rules’ to guide a sound approach. International Journal of River Basin Management, 1(17), 239-255.

23. Sheikh Hasani, H. (2015). Drought, Dehydration, Risk Management, Crisis and Strategies. National Conference on Water Ways in Iran and the Middle East. Retrieved from: (In Farsi).

24. Sobhani nasab, Y. (2009). Ecological, Socio-Economic Impact of Drought. Proceedings of the Regional Conference on Water and Drought, Islamic Azad University of Rasht. 779-79. Retrieved from: (In Farsi).

25. Solh, M., & Ginkel, M.van. (2014). Drought preparedness and drought mitigation in the developing world׳s drylands. Weather and Climate Extremes. 3, 62-66.

26. Tavakoli, J., Almasi, E., & Quchi, P. (2015). Investigation and Analysis of Drought Adjustment Strategies in Kermanshah Province, Rural Studies, 7(1), 142-47. (In Farsi).

27. Towler, E., & Lazrus, H. (2016). Increasing the usability of drought information for risk management in the Arbuckle Simpson Aquifer, Oklahoma, and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States. Retrieved from:

28. UNDP. (2012). Drought Risk Management: Practitioner's Perspectives from Africa and Asia. Retrieved from://

29.  UNESCO. (2016). Drought risk management, A strategic approach.  United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, place de Fontenoy, Paris, France.

30. Wilhite, D. A. (2016). Drought -management policies and preparedness plans: changing the paradigm from crisis to risk management. University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, USA Land Restoration.

31. Wilhite, D. A. & Vanyarkho, O. (2000). Drought Pervasive impacts of a creeping phenomenon. Drought a Global Assessment.In: Donald A. Wilhite, Drought: A Global Assessment, Vol. I, pp. 245–255

32. Wilhite D. A., Sivakumar M. V.K. &  Pulwartyc R. (2014). Managing drought risk in a changing climate: The role of national drought policy, Weather and Climate Extremes,Volume 3, June 2014, 4-13

World Bank. (2016). World development indicators. Retrieved from::