Investigate the economical effects of world food and oil price on macroeconomic variables in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

This study investigates economic effects of world food and oil price on macroeconomic variables (industrial output growth, inflation, stock price indices, lending rate and real exchange rate) in Iran. To determine the influence of variables, Structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) was used. In this study, three models discussed separately: In the first model, the effect of global food price prices as exogenous variables on the macro variables was measured. The second model examined the effect of oil deals on macroeconomic variables. In addition, the third model investigated the impact of both variables (global food and oil prices) simultaneously. The data required for this study was monthly and the related period was 1380:01-1390:12. The results show that oil prices effects inflation and exchange rate, but it has no significant effect on output growth and stock market. Global food price shocks have shown similar effects on macroeconomic variables, and it only affects the inflation and the exchange rate. The study results of shocks in oil prices and global food prices show that in addition to the individual effect of each of these shocks on inflation and exchange rates, the oil shock will have a significant effect on global food prices. The empirical results of this study suggest that oil and food prices should be considered for policy and forecasting purposes. In addition, it is important that with developing non-oil exports and the use of revenue from oil exports in economic infrastructure, minimize the negative effects of oil shocks.

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References

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Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research
Volume 48, Issue 2
July 2017
Pages 197-209

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