Application of the Ricardian approach to investigating the effect of climate change on agricultural land rent

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Iran

2 PhD Student of Agricultural Economics, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Iran

Abstract

Today climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges of 21 century that cause serious economic consequences. This study has been done due to important of climate change and its effect on agricultural sector with purpose of investigating the effect of climate variables on land rent in Golestan province by using Ricardian approach and panel data at 1981 to 2011. Thus, temperature, precipitation and production cost data have been used. The results of Ricardian model show that temperature and precipitation variables have a negative and a positive effect on agricultural rent, respectively. In other words with increase 17.25°Cof temperature, rent of agricultural land have been reduced and with increase 259.72 mm of precipitation, rent of agricultural land have been increase. Also the results of different scenarios during past years show that climate change had negative effect and decrease 38 percent rent of products in future. According these results, development of new varieties and new hybrids of resistant products and improve of water resources management to tackle the problem of water shortage, risk of temperature changes and other weather conditions have been suggested.

Keywords


Abbasi, F., Babayian, A., Habibi Nokhandan, M., Mokhtari, L., Malbosi, Sh. & Askari, Sh. (2010). Climate change assessment over Iran in the future decades using MAGICC-SCENGEN model. Physical geography research quarterly, 42(72): 91-109. (In Farsi).
Abrishami, H., Mehr Ara, M. & Mohseni, R. (2006). The impact of trade liberalization on export and import growth. Journal of Commercial Research, 126 (40): 95-127. (In Farsi).
Aydinalp, C. & Cresser, M. S. (2008). The effects of global climate change on agriculture. American-Eurasian Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Sceinces, 3(5): 672-676.
Chang, C. C. (2003). The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture. Agricultural Economics. 27: 51-64.
Data of agricultural products in Golestan Province (2011). Statistical data, databases, Bank of Agriculture, Economic and planning department of statistics and information technology office, Jahade-Keshavarzi ministry of Iran.
Data of agricultural production costs in Golestan Province (2011). Statistical data, databases, Bank of Agriculture, Economic and planning department of statistics and information technology office, Jahade-Keshavarzi ministry of Iran.
Data of temperature and precipitation in Golestan Province (2011).Golestan Regional Water Company and Meteorology Department.
Eid, H. M., El-Marsafawy, S. M. & Ouda, S. A. (2007). Assessing the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Egypt, a ricardian approach. Policy research working paper, 4293, The World Bank.
FAO Climate Change Data, (2011). www.faostat3.fao.org/faostatgateway/go/to/download
Fezzi, C. & Bateman, L. (2012). Non-linear effects and aggregation bias in ricardian models of climate change. CSERGE working paper, ISSN 0967-8875.
Green, W. H. (2003). Econometric Analysis, Pritice Hall, 5 ed.
Hosseini, S. S., Nazari, M. & Eraghi Nejad, Sh. (2013). Investigating the impacts of climate on agricultural sector with emphasis on the role of adaptation strategies in this sector. Iranian journal of agricultural economics and development research, 44(1): 1-16. (In Farsi).
Huiliu, X. L., Fischer, G., & Sun, L., (2004). Study on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture. Climatic Change, 65: 125-148.
IPCC. (2007). Climate change- Synthesis report. Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Rome.
Khosravi, M., Esmael Nejad, M. & Nazari pour, H. (2010). Climate change and its impact on water resources in the Middle East. 4th international congress of the Islam world geographers, 14-16 April 2010, Zahedan, Iran. (In Farsi).
Kochaki, A. & Kamali, Gh. (2009). Climate change and wheat production in Iran. Journal of Iran’s agricultural research, 8(3): 508-520. (In Farsi).
Kurukulasuriya, P., Mendelsohn, R., Hassan, R., Benhin, J., Diop, M., Eid, H. M., Fosu, K. Y., Gbetibouo, G., Jain, S., Mahamadou, A., El-Marsafawy, S., Ouda, S., Ouedraogo, M., S`ene, I., Maddision, D., Seo, S. N. & Dinar, A. (2006). Will African agriculture survive climate change?. The World Bank Economic Review, 20 (3): 367-388.
Maddison, D., Manley, M. & Kurukulasuriya, P. (2007). The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture, A Ricardian Approach. Policy research working paper, 4306, Public disclosure authorized, The World Bank.
Malcolm, S., Marshall, E., Aillery, M., Heisey, P., Livingston, M. & Day-Rubenstein, K. (2012). Agriculural adaption to a cahnging climate, economic and environmental implications vary by U.S region. Economic Research Report, Number 136, United States Department of Agriculture.
Masseti, E. & Mendelson, R. (2011). The impact of climate cahnge on US agriculrure: a repeated cross-sectional ricardian analysis. Handbook on climate change and agriculture. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, Northamption, MA, USA.
Redsma, P., Lansink, A. O. & Ewert, F. (2009). Economic impact of climatic variability and subsidies on european agriculture and observed adaptation strategies. Miting Adapt Strateg Glob Change. 14:35-59.
Ricardo, D. (1817). On the principles of political economy and taxation. John Murray, London.
Ricardo, D. (1822). On the protection in agriculture. John Murray, London.
Salvo, M. D., Begalli, D. & Singnorello, G. (2013). Measuring the effect of climate change on agriculture: A literature review of analytical models. Journal of development and agricultural economics, 5(12): 499-509.
Shakibayi, A., Aflatoni, A. & Nikbakht, L. (2008). Investigating the long-run relationship between exchange rates and oil prices in OPEC countries. Journal of knowledge & development, 15(25): 67-85. (In Farsi).
Van Passel, S., Massetti, E. & Mendelsohn, R. (2012). A ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on european agriculture. Nota Di Lavoro, 2012.
Vaseghi, A. & Esmaeili, A. (2008). Investigation of the economic impacts of climate change on Iran agriculture: a Ricardian approach (Case study: wheat). Journal of science and technology of agriculture and natural resources, 15(45): 685-696. (In Farsi).
Wooldridge, J. M. (2001). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data, The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England.