Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research

Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research

Application of Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating agricultural production risk (Case study: Gorgan county)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Iraj Saleh 1
Mehdi Bastani 2
Samaneh Abedi 3
1 Associate Professor Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran
2 MSc. Student, Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Economics, University of Sary, Iran
10.22059/ijaedr.2015.54904
Abstract
Agriculture sector has had a significant grow thing role in the Iran, but growth and development in this sector is not possible without a suitable risk management. This study has tried to predict and measure the risk from changing weather condition on agriculture products of Gorgan County using Mont Carlo Stimulation as one of the powerful tools on risk analysis. The results showed that the highest level of production risk is for the crop such as barley, soya and wheat and the least level of the risk is for the crops such as bean, clover and pea, respectively. To sum up, the research results indicated a significant effect of production risk in this area and therefore managers and policy makers need to notice it.
Keywords
agriculture productions
Monte Carlo simulation
Gorgan county
Risk Management
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Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research
Volume 46, Issue 2 - Serial Number 2
Summer 2015
Pages 385-393