Examining the Short-Term Dynamics of Income Mobility among Iranian Households under Stagflationary Conditions: Is Poverty a Trap?

Pishbahar, Esmaeil; Davoudnia, Zakieh; Ghahremanzadeh, Mohammad; Hosseinzad, Javad; Dourandish, Arash

doi:10.22059/ijaedr.2026.411188.669424

Examining the Short-Term Dynamics of Income Mobility among Iranian Households under Stagflationary Conditions: Is Poverty a Trap?

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Esmaeil Pishbahar ¹

Zakieh Davoudnia ²

Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh ²

Javad Hosseinzad ²

Arash Dourandish ³

¹ Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

² Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

³ Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development,, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

10.22059/ijaedr.2026.411188.669424

Abstract

Industrial livestock farms in semi-arid regions face multiple operational risks that can threaten business continuity and productivity. This study aimed to identify and prioritize operational risks in industrial livestock systems using evidence from 50 dairy farms in Mashhad County, north-eastern Iran. We applied a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach to develop a risk register and classify risks across major functional domains. Risk priority numbers were then computed based on severity, occurrence, and detectability. Risk scores were elicited through structured expert-based assessments with key farm stakeholders and aggregated to rank risks and highlight high-priority clusters. Results indicate that feed-related volatility (price shocks and quality instability), microclimate control failures (cooling and ventilation disruptions), workforce instability (turnover and skill gaps), and cold-chain disruptions (milk handling and storage reliability) rank among the most critical risks. These risks are not only frequent or severe, but also difficult to detect early, which increases the likelihood of cascading losses through reduced milk yield, herd health complications, and operational downtime. The findings suggest that strengthening preventive management is essential to reduce both the occurrence frequency and the detectability deficiencies of high-priority risks. Key actions include systematic feed-quality monitoring, routine herd health surveillance, and reliability-focused maintenance for cooling, ventilation, and milk-cooling systems. In addition, improving institutional support mechanisms—particularly advisory and extension services, credible and transparent risk-transfer arrangements, and more effective cooperative governance—can enhance implementation capacity and resilience. Overall, the study provides an evidence-based prioritization to guide farm managers and policymakers toward integrated operational risk management in industrial livestock systems operating under semi-arid constraints.

Keywords

Resilience

Climate variability

Mashhad

Uncertainty

Subjects

Agricultural Economics

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