کاربرد برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی چندجمله‌ای در تعیین پرتفوی بهینه سهام شرکت‌های صنایع‌غذایی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

2 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

چکیده

در این مطالعه، رویکردی از برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی چندجمله‌ای که بر­مبنای مدل میانگین- واریانس- چولگی- کشیدگی است؛ برای انتخاب پرتفوی بهینه بر اساس ساختار ترجیحاتی مختلف سرمایه‌گذاران استفاده شده ‌است. سپس، ریسک سیستماتیک به­دلیل اهمیتی که در تصمیم‌گیری‌ها دارد به­عنوان محدودیت در مدل وارد شد. معیار اندازه‌گیری ریسک سیستماتیک، معیار همبستگی نامطلوب حدی درنظر گرفته شده ‌است. داده‌های مورد استفاده شامل قیمت روزانه سهام شرکت‌های منتخب صنایع غذایی و شاخص بازار برای سال‌های 1398-1394 می‌باشند. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد ترجیحات سرمایه‌گذار بر انتخاب پرتفوی و تخصیص سرمایه اثرگذار است و لذا، افراد می‌توانند بر اساس ترجیحات خود پرتفوی مورد­نظر را انتخاب نمایند. پس از درنظر گرفتن محدودیت ریسک، انتخاب پرتفوی به سمت سهام شرکت‌هایی خواهد رفت که از نوسانات بازار اثرپذیری کمتری دارند. با توجه به نتایج، پیشنهاد می‌شود در مطالعات آتی مدل بر­اساس سایر محدودیت‌های موجود از جمله درجه ریسک‌گریزی متفاوت افراد در تصمیم‌گیری‌ها توسعه داده شود و یا کارایی آن بر­اساس منطق فازی مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. همچنین، نتایج حاصل از هر یک از برآوردها می‌تواند به عنوان یک الگوی سرمایه‌گذاری برای افراد درنظر گرفته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of Polynomial Goal Programming in Optimal Portfolio Determination of Food Industry Stocks

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Mojtahedi 1
  • Seyed Mojtaba Mojaverian 2
  • Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani 2
1 PhD student of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economics Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari. Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economic/ Sari Agricultural Science and Natural Resources University
چکیده [English]

In this study, a polynomial goal programming approach based on the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model is used to select the optimal portfolio based on different investor preferences structure. Then systematic risk is considered as a constraint in the model because of its importance in decision making. Extreme Downside Hedge is considered as the measurement of systematic risk. The data used in this study include daily stock price of selected food industry companies and market index for 2015-2019. The results showed that investor preferences influence portfolio selection and allocation of capital, so individuals can choose their portfolio based on their preferences. The risk entry into the model also indicated that given this limitation, portfolio selection would shift to the stocks of companies that are less affected by market volatility. Based on results, it is suggested that in future studies the model be developed based on other limitations such as different degree of risk aversion in decision making. The model can also be designed based on fuzzy logic and its performance be investigated under such conditions. Also, results of each estimation can be considered as an investment patern for individuals.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Systematic Risk
  • Extreme Downside Hedge
  • Higher-order moments
  • Stock Exchange

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تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
دوره 53، شماره 1
فروردین 1401
صفحه 265-276

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